Belgium Diesel Prices Surge as IEA Warns of Fuel Shortage

Belgian motorists face another sharp increase in diesel prices starting Thursday, July 23, as the maximum price for diesel B7 rises by 8.5 euro cents to €2.23 per liter, the highest level since early May. The increase comes as the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns of potential gasoline and diesel shortages amid escalating hostilities between the United States and Iran that have driven Brent crude oil above $94 per barrel.

According to La Libre Belgique, the SPF Economie announced Wednesday that diesel B10 will also rise by 8.3 euro cents to a maximum of €2.221 per liter. Heating oil prices are increasing as well, with the maximum price for gasoil de chauffage (H0/H7, 2,000+ liters) rising to €1.2910 per liter.

The Rapid Rise in Fuel Costs

The latest increase means diesel prices have climbed by 31 cents per liter in just 22 days. For consumers, a full 45-liter tank now costs nearly €14 more than it did three weeks ago. The record price for diesel B7 remains the €2.489 per liter reached in early April 2026, at the height of the initial crisis following the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict.

As L’Avenir reports, these price fluctuations stem from the evolution of international petroleum product and biofuel quotations, which have been particularly volatile since the start of the Middle East war in late February.

IEA Warns of Supply Disruption

The IEA warned on Tuesday that it fears an energy shortage, with Bloomberg reporting the agency is “closely monitoring the situation in oil markets” as escalating Middle East hostilities increase concerns over supply security. The warning comes as Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen have threatened to disrupt shipping through the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, a critical maritime chokepoint.

According to La Libre Belgique, the resumption of hostilities between Washington and Tehran has sent oil prices soaring. Brent crude, which had fallen to $70.14 per barrel on July 2 following a brief truce, has surged more than 28% to exceed $94 per barrel.

Why Diesel Prices Are Rising Faster

Diesel prices are increasing more sharply than gasoline for several structural reasons, as explained by Jean-Benoît Schrans, spokesperson for Energia, the Belgian Petroleum Federation. In an interview with RTBF, Schrans noted that diesel requires a more complex refining process, with only 20-35% of a barrel of crude yielding diesel compared to up to 50% for gasoline.

Demand factors also play a significant role. Approximately 25% of Belgian cars and 99% of trucks still run on diesel, with 65% of national fuel consumption being diesel versus 35% gasoline. Belgium consumes 8.5 million tons of diesel and heating oil annually compared to just 2.7 million tons of gasoline.

The Strait of Hormuz blockade compounds these pressures. “The paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz does not only block the transit of crude oil, but also finished products like diesel,” Schrans explained. Middle Eastern countries export diesel directly to Asian markets, creating global price pressure that affects Europe as well.

Broader Economic Impact

The energy crisis is feeding into broader inflationary pressures. Belgian inflation rose to 4.01% in April 2026, driven primarily by energy costs, while eurozone inflation reached 3% with energy prices up 10.9% year-on-year. The Belgian federal government has allocated up to €80 million for energy support, including tax incentives for employers to increase kilometer allowances for commuting workers.

The impact extends beyond motorists. Airlines including Brussels Airlines and Ryanair have warned of higher costs, and German airports have flagged potential flight cancellations due to kerosene shortages. The Dutch TTF gas market is also rising, flirting with €62 per megawatt-hour, its highest level since March.

What to Watch For

The trajectory of fuel prices in Belgium remains closely tied to geopolitical developments in the Middle East. The brief US-Iran truce signed on June 17 provided temporary relief, but the resumption of hostilities has erased those gains. OPEC+ agreed in July to increase production by 188,000 barrels per day, but this has not been sufficient to offset supply disruptions.

With the IEA monitoring the situation closely and the Houthi threat to Bab-el-Mandeb adding a new dimension to supply risks, Belgian consumers and businesses should prepare for continued volatility at the pump in the weeks ahead.