Chaos and Trump Dominate 2026 Midterm Primaries
With just over three months until the November 3 general election, the 2026 midterm primaries have descended into a season of chaos and uncertainty for both major political parties. President Donald Trump, despite a deeply underwater approval rating of approximately 37%, has inserted himself into key races more aggressively than in any previous midterm cycle, while Democrats grapple with internal ideological battles, candidate scandals, and campaign finance crises that threaten winnable seats.
As AP News reports, the turmoil has turned the election existential for both parties. “We really do not know what’s going to happen in November,” said veteran pollster Frank Luntz.
Arizona: Biggs Wins GOP Nod to Challenge Hobbs
In one of the most closely watched races of the cycle, U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs, a fierce Trump ally and former House Freedom Caucus chair, won the Republican nomination for Arizona governor on July 21, defeating fellow Rep. David Schweikert. Biggs will now face incumbent Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs in what is expected to be another razor-thin contest, according to AP News.
“Let’s make this the year that we turn Arizona red again,” Biggs declared at his victory party. Hobbs, who won her 2022 race against Republican firebrand Kari Lake by less than 1 percentage point, responded: “The more Arizonans learn about Biggs, the more they’ll realize he’s one big problem they can’t afford.”
By choosing Biggs, who supported Trump’s effort to block certification of the 2020 election results, Republican voters have nominated a candidate who excites the party base but may struggle to win over independents in a state that has trended Democratic in recent cycles.
Michigan: A Battle for the Soul of the Democratic Party
The Democratic Senate primary in Michigan has emerged as a national battleground for the party’s ideological future. Progressive Abdul El-Sayed, a former Detroit public health official, faces moderate Rep. Haley Stevens in a race that has drawn unprecedented outside spending. As AP News reports, AIPAC and affiliated groups have spent close to $30 million backing Stevens — their largest investment ever in a single race.
El-Sayed, endorsed by Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, has described Israel’s military campaign in Gaza as a genocide and supports regulating artificial intelligence like a public utility. Stevens, who has backing from Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer and former Sen. Debbie Stabenow, emphasizes a pragmatic approach and has focused on job retention, privacy protections, and competition.
“Trump is going to be the factor of everything in this election,” Michigan pollster Richard Czuba told The New York Times. “The latest job approval for him in Michigan is 37 percent. We’re talking Joe Biden territory.”
Democratic Turmoil in Maine and Wisconsin
Democrats have suffered self-inflicted wounds in two other key states. In Maine, Senate nominee Graham Platner, an oyster farmer and political outsider, dropped out of the race to challenge Republican Sen. Susan Collins after a sexual assault allegation, which he denies. The party is now scrambling to hold a convention to choose a replacement candidate.
In Wisconsin, Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez abandoned her Democratic gubernatorial bid after a campaign finance scandal, potentially elevating democratic socialist state Rep. Francesca Hong — a candidate viewed by party leaders as a weak general election opponent against Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany.
Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster, told AP News: “There is something in the air that has made these candidates incredibly reckless and thinking that they can get away with it. I think Trump has kind of created a high-risk environment.”
Trump’s High-Risk Midterm Strategy
President Trump has made more campaign-related trips in 2026 than during the same period in 2018, according to NPR. Rather than keeping distance from competitive races — the traditional playbook for unpopular presidents — Trump and his team are centering him in the midterm campaign.
“Typically in the midterms, it’s not about who’s sitting at the White House. You localize the election and you keep the federal officials out of it,” White House chief of staff Suzie Wiles explained. “We’re actually going to turn that on its head and put him on the ballot, because so many of those low propensity voters are Trump voters.”
The RNC has announced a rare midterm convention in Dallas in September, dubbed “Trumpapalooza” by RNC Chairman Joe Gruters, further cementing the president’s central role.
Republican Risks in Texas and North Carolina
Trump has also reshaped the Republican Senate map by sidelining incumbents who crossed him. In Texas, he ousted longtime Sen. John Cornyn and endorsed Ken Paxton, a fiery conservative with a lengthy history of corruption allegations. Republican leaders have warned that Paxton’s nomination could put the normally safe seat in play and force the party to spend millions defending it.
In North Carolina, Sen. Thom Tillis declined to run for reelection after feuding with Trump, creating an open seat that Democrats hope to flip with former Gov. Roy Cooper.
What to Watch For
With the Michigan primary scheduled for August 4 and the RNC convention in September, the next several weeks will be critical in shaping the November battlefield. Both parties face fundamental questions about their identities: Democrats are torn between progressive and moderate wings, while Republicans are navigating a post-Trump future even as the president maintains an iron grip on the party.
As pollster Frank Luntz put it: the only certainty is uncertainty.