US Nuclear Deal with Saudi Arabia Raises Proliferation Fears
President Donald Trump has approved a landmark 30-year nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia that would permit the kingdom to develop a civilian nuclear program with the potential to enrich uranium on its own soil, according to multiple reports. The deal, expected to be formally announced and submitted to Congress in the coming days, represents a significant shift in US non-proliferation policy and a major diplomatic victory for Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS).
The Deal at a Glance
The agreement, negotiated under Section 123 of the US Atomic Energy Act of 1954, would allow US companies — including Pittsburgh-based Westinghouse — to help develop Saudi Arabia’s civilian nuclear sector. According to Al Jazeera, one of its most significant provisions would permit Saudi Arabia to pursue domestic uranium enrichment following a joint US-Saudi study.
Enriching uranium is not illegal and is used to produce fuel for nuclear power plants. However, the same technology can also produce highly enriched uranium suitable for nuclear weapons if enrichment continues to much higher levels. Saudi Arabia has previously stated it would seek a nuclear weapon if Iran ever acquired one.
A Controversial Departure from the ‘Gold Standard’
The reported agreement is expected to fall short of the standards accepted by other US partners. In 2009, the United Arab Emirates signed a “123 Agreement” with Washington before opening its Barakah nuclear power plant, agreeing not to enrich uranium or reprocess spent nuclear fuel — a model that non-proliferation experts have described as the “gold standard.”
Reports suggest the Saudi agreement would instead allow enrichment and may not require the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) Additional Protocol, which gives inspectors broader powers to verify that nuclear material is not being diverted for military purposes.
Michael Horowitz, a geopolitical analyst, told Al Jazeera that the Saudi agreement would be “very consequential.”
“The US reportedly agreed to a deal that falls both below the gold standard and doesn’t include the Additional Protocol — both of which are made to ensure a civilian programme doesn’t turn into a military one,” Horowitz said.
“This isn’t a detail: If Riyadh had wanted to just have US backing for a civilian programme, it would have done so years ago — with Washington’s blessing. In other words, the goal is to get US support for a deal that doesn’t fully exclude a pathway to a nuclear programme,” he added.
Contradiction at the Heart of US Policy
The timing of the announcement has drawn sharp criticism, as the US is currently engaged in a military campaign against Iran that began with US-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026. The stated objective of the campaign includes preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons capability.
As The Guardian reported, the US-Saudi deal is expected to last 30 years and involve US firms such as Westinghouse in developing the program. It could allow for the building of a uranium enrichment facility in Saudi Arabia after a joint US-Saudi study.
Rosemary Kelanic, head of the Middle East programme at Defense Priorities, warned in a social media post cited by The Guardian: “Giving Saudi Arabia uranium enrichment technology is a terrible idea on many counts. But it’s especially idiotic to do it in the middle of a war over Iran’s nuclear programme.”
She added: “Saudi enrichment would put immense pressure on Iran to get the bomb. Is Trump TRYING to provoke Iran into weaponising?”
Why the US Agreed
Supporters argue the agreement would strengthen US influence in the Gulf. In a report submitted to Congress earlier this year, the Trump administration argued that expanding civilian nuclear cooperation would help maintain US leadership in the global nuclear industry while preventing strategic competitors from gaining influence in the kingdom.
The administration has also argued that Saudi Arabia’s growing electricity demand makes nuclear energy an increasingly important part of its long-term energy strategy, as part of Crown Prince MBS’s Vision 2030 plan to diversify the economy away from oil dependence. The New York Post reported that the deal will be in effect through 2056 and be worth tens of billions of dollars.
Congressional and Regional Dynamics
Any civilian nuclear cooperation agreement must be submitted to Congress, which has the power to review and block so-called “123 agreements.” However, Congress would need a two-thirds majority to block the proposed agreement and override any presidential veto — a high bar.
The proposal is expected to face scrutiny from lawmakers in both parties over the safeguards governing Saudi uranium enrichment. Some members of Congress and Israeli officials have expressed opposition, warning that permitting enrichment could leave open a future pathway to a Saudi nuclear weapons capability. The New Arab noted that approval is not required for the deal to go through.
Andrea Stricker, deputy director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Nonproliferation Program, urged Congress to block the proposed agreement.
“If it does not, one hopes the policy will be reversed by a subsequent administration before too much damage is done in terms of watering down safeguards, setting negative precedents for other states, and failing to contain the spread of enrichment,” Stricker said, as reported by Al Jazeera.
Regional Arms Race Fears
The deal could trigger a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. Iran may feel compelled to accelerate its nuclear program, and other Gulf states such as the UAE and Qatar may seek to renegotiate their own 123 agreements.
Adding another dimension, Saudi Arabia and nuclear-armed Pakistan signed a mutual defense pact after Israel launched attacks on Qatar. Pakistan’s defense minister subsequently stated that its nuclear program “will be made available” to Saudi Arabia if needed.
What to Watch For
The deal’s ultimate fate rests with Congress, though the high threshold required to block it makes approval likely. Key questions remain: Will the IAEA Additional Protocol be included in the final agreement? How will Iran respond given the ongoing war? And will this deal set a precedent that reshapes nuclear governance in the Middle East for decades to come?
For now, the agreement represents a significant strategic victory for Crown Prince MBS and a profound shift in American non-proliferation policy — one whose consequences are likely to reverberate across the region for years.