Energy Prices Surge: Oil Above $97, Gas at Peak, Gasoline €2 Per Liter

Energy prices are climbing sharply across global markets, with Brent crude oil surging past $97 per barrel, European gas prices returning to peak levels, and the price of 95 (E10) gasoline in Belgium approaching €2 per liter. The renewed spike, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East, is putting significant pressure on households and businesses across Europe.

According to VRT NWS, Brent crude oil has reached its highest level in six weeks, climbing from approximately $92 per barrel just yesterday morning to over $97 today. European gas prices on the Dutch TTF exchange are trading around €63.5 per megawatt-hour, matching the elevated levels last seen in March 2026.

Fuel Prices at the Pump

The impact is being felt directly at Belgian fuel pumps. As of July 24, the maximum price for a liter of 95 (E10) gasoline will rise by 2 euro cents to €1.957 — the highest level since May 28. Premium 98 (E5) gasoline will reach €2.091 per liter, its most expensive since May 22.

Diesel prices have already increased, with the maximum rate rising by 8.5 euro cents to €2.23 per liter — the highest since early May, as reported by Het Laatste Nieuws. Heating oil is also affected: for deliveries over 2,000 liters, the maximum price rises to €1.291 per liter.

The Federal Public Service Economy (FOD Economie), which sets Belgium’s maximum fuel prices, stated that the increases result from fluctuations in international quotations of oil products and their biocomponents.

Geopolitical Roots of the Crisis

The current energy crisis is fundamentally driven by the US-Israel war against Iran, which began on February 28, 2026. A critical flashpoint is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil and LNG passes. Iran’s blockade of this strategic chokepoint has severely disrupted global energy supplies.

After a temporary ceasefire agreement on June 17 brought oil prices down to around $71 per barrel, the situation deteriorated sharply in early July. President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire “definitively over” on July 8, launching new attacks on Iran. Trump stated that the blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz could last “several more months,” causing oil prices to spike.

European Gas Storage Concerns

Europe faces particular vulnerability as it heads toward winter. LNG deliveries to Northwest Europe are currently about a quarter lower than the 30-day average, according to reporting from Het Laatste Nieuws. At the same time, European gas storage facilities are only just over half full — compared to the normal level of approximately 70% at this time of year.

The summer heat wave is increasing demand for cooling, further straining supply. Countries are racing to refill storage ahead of winter 2026-2027, but persistently high prices and supply uncertainty are complicating these efforts.

Diesel Shortage Warning

Analysts at Morgan Stanley have issued a stark warning about diesel supplies. “The situation is really precarious,” they wrote in a recent report, projecting that European diesel inventories could fall to their lowest level since 2015 by the end of the year. This poses particular risks for the transport and logistics sectors, which rely heavily on diesel.

Broader Economic Impact

The energy price surge is feeding through to inflation. Belgian inflation jumped from 1.65% in March to 4.01% in April, driven primarily by energy costs. Eurozone inflation rose to 3% in April, with energy prices up 10.9% year-on-year.

The aviation sector is also feeling the strain. Ryanair CFO Neil Sorahan warned of rising fuel costs, while German airports have warned of potential flight cancellations due to kerosene shortages. Shell’s Q1 2026 profit doubled to $6.92 billion, benefiting from the higher energy prices.

Government Response

The Belgian federal government approved an €80 million energy support package in April 2026, including a temporary increase in the kilometer allowance for commuters, tax incentives for employers to raise commuting reimbursements, and €15 million for social heating oil and gas funds, as detailed by Acerta. The planned tax increases on natural gas and heating oil have been postponed.

At the European level, the European Commission has allowed more state aid for vulnerable sectors — agriculture, fisheries, transport, and energy-intensive industry — covering up to 70% of additional costs. However, efforts to implement a European framework for a windfall tax on energy companies have stalled due to a lack of consensus among member states.

Historical Context

The current price levels, while painful, remain below the peaks reached earlier this year. Gasoline 95 (E10) peaked at €2.015 per liter on May 20, while diesel reached a record €2.489 per liter on April 8. Those earlier spikes occurred during the initial shock of the conflict before the June ceasefire temporarily eased prices.

What to Watch For

Several key questions will determine the trajectory of energy prices in the coming months. Will the US-Iran conflict escalate further or find a path to de-escalation? Can Europe fill its gas storage to adequate levels before winter? How will sustained high energy prices affect household consumption and business investment?

With the Strait of Hormuz blockade showing no signs of resolution and European storage levels well below normal, the outlook suggests continued volatility and elevated prices. For Belgian households and businesses, the era of cheap energy appears to be firmly in the rearview mirror.

Reporting contributed by VRT NWS and Het Laatste Nieuws.