Extreme Drought to Engulf All of Belgium Within Ten Days

Belgium is bracing for an extreme drought that is expected to cover the entire country within the next ten days, according to a new study published July 23 by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) consortium. The research reveals that human-induced climate change has made agricultural soil drought approximately 11 times more likely in Belgium and the eastern European region, and 5 times more likely in western Europe. The worsening dry conditions are already impacting agriculture, water supplies, and daily life across all regions of Belgium.

Context: A Drought Years in the Making

The drought has been developing since May 2026, with conditions deteriorating through June and July amid record summer heatwaves across Europe. The WWA study, reported by La Libre Belgique, warns that within ten days, extreme drought conditions will affect every corner of Belgium.

Global warming has already reached approximately 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels. The scientists warn that at 2.8°C of warming, the probability of such evaporation conditions could double again. While precipitation deficits between April and June cannot be clearly attributed to climate change, conditions favoring high evaporation due to heat have become approximately 80 times more probable in western Europe and 40 times more probable in the eastern region.

“Extreme heat is becoming the main driver of droughts on the continent,” said Sarah Kew, a climatologist at the Royal Meteorological Institute of the Netherlands (KNMI), as reported by L’Avenir.

Water Restrictions and River Levels

As of July 15, four Walloon communes — Manhay, Léglise, Rochefort, and Bouillon — had imposed water restrictions. River levels across Wallonia are now comparable to the very dry years of 2020 and 2022. According to RTL Info, only 4 millimeters of rain were recorded in Bertrix since July 1, and many other regions have not seen a single drop.

The Walloon drought crisis cell has closed affected river sections to kayaking and pleasure boating to conserve water. The suspension of hydroelectric plants on non-navigable waterways is also under consideration. A next evaluation meeting was held on July 23, the same day the WWA study was published.

Agricultural Impact: Farmers Feel the Heat

The agricultural sector is already counting the cost. Cereal harvests are 10-30% lower than normal, while corn and sugar beet crops are particularly threatened. Some farmers completed cereal harvests nearly a month early due to the abnormal weather.

Guillaume Van Binst, Secretary General of the Federation of Young Farmers (FJA), told RTL Info: “In regions with a very thin layer of soil, as soon as the drought arrived, the crops directly suffered from the lack of water. For harvested cereals, we’re easily talking about 10 to 30% reduction in yield depending on the case.”

Adrien Minet, a farmer in Houyet in the Province of Namur, noted that while cereals fared better than feared, other crops are struggling. “For corn, you can see it’s struggling, it’s thirsty. The sugar beets too,” he said. Simon Baudouin, a farmer in Herbuchenne, described corn plants measuring nearly a meter shorter than in previous years, with leaves pointing upward — a sign of water stress.

Broader European Crisis

The 2026 drought is part of a continent-wide crisis. France has 95 departments under water restrictions, with the worst corn harvest in 50 years expected. Italy’s Po River is at critically low levels, with saltwater intrusion extending 20 kilometers inland. Major wildfires have devastated hundreds of thousands of hectares across southern Europe, including a megafire in Guadalajara, Spain, that burned over 16,000 hectares.

Belgium itself faces increased wildfire risk, with experts warning that Walloon forests will soon no longer be spared from drought-related fires.

Analysis and Outlook

The WWA study underscores a troubling shift: extreme heat, not just lack of rain, is becoming the primary driver of European droughts. Warmer air holds more moisture, accelerating evaporation from soils and water bodies — a mechanism that has become dramatically more probable due to climate change.

The authors of the study note that drought management plans are not mandatory across the European Union, and preparedness varies significantly between countries. With the drought expected to intensify over the coming days, pressure is mounting on Belgian authorities to expand water restrictions beyond the current four communes and potentially declare a national drought crisis.

For Belgian farmers and communities, the next ten days will be critical. As the drought spreads to every corner of the country, the question is no longer whether Belgium will be affected — but how severe the consequences will be.