Musk: China ‘Highly Likely’ to Become Global AI Leader
Elon Musk has predicted that China is “highly likely” to become the global leader in artificial intelligence at some point in the future, adding that even if the United States bans Chinese AI models, it would not stop the country’s technological progress. The remarks, made during a wide-ranging interview with The Economist and reported by Chinese state-affiliated media outlet The Paper, underscore the intensifying US-China technology rivalry.
The Interview
Musk made the comments during a 90-minute recorded conversation with The Economist’s editor-in-chief Zanny Minton Beddoes on July 23, conducted at a Tesla factory in Texas. The interview, published on The Economist’s video platform “The Insider,” covered Musk’s predictions on AI, his controversial political involvement, and his vision for the global economy.
Notably, the China AI leadership remark was prominently highlighted by Chinese media but received less attention in Western coverage, suggesting it may have been a brief moment in the lengthy discussion. Chinese outlet The Paper reported Musk’s exact words as: “At some point in the future, China is highly likely to become an AI leader; even if the US bans Chinese models, it won’t stop them.”
AI Timeline and Predictions
Beyond his assessment of China’s AI trajectory, Musk offered a series of sweeping predictions about artificial intelligence. According to Business Insider, he said AI may exceed humanity’s collective intelligence “in around five years,” adding that soon “there really won’t be anything that AI can’t do better than humans, apart from being human, perhaps.”
Musk also predicted that humans will no longer be “in charge” within 10 years, comparing the coming intelligence gap to the one between humans and chimpanzees. “It’s hard to imagine that the chimpanzee would be in charge,” he said.
On the economic front, Musk painted a utopian picture of an “age of amazing abundance” where robots and AI provide more goods and services than any human could possibly consume. He argued that money will become “meaningless” and “won’t matter in 2036,” and suggested governments should create a “universal high income” system by issuing checks to citizens.
Political Regret and AI Safety
The interview also marked Musk’s first extended media appearance since his involvement in the Trump administration. As The Guardian reported, Musk admitted he got “a little too involved in politics” and “carried away” with his role heading the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). He suggested he should have focused on his companies instead.
Musk proposed that rival AI labs hold safety calls every few weeks and review each other’s new models before release, arguing that competitors are better placed than governments to spot problems. He praised Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei as “a very principled person” while renewing his long-standing criticisms of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, with whom he has been locked in a legal battle.
Implications for US-China Technology Competition
Musk’s prediction carries weight given his standing as one of the most prominent figures in AI. He co-founded OpenAI in 2015, founded xAI (which developed the Grok model and is now a subsidiary of SpaceX), and has been both a vocal advocate for AI development and a prominent worrier about its existential risks.
The timing of his remarks is significant. Chinese AI companies such as DeepSeek have made notable breakthroughs that have caused concern in Silicon Valley and Washington. On the same day as Musk’s interview, Chinese news outlets reported that US officials were threatening to review Chinese open-source AI models amid fears of losing AI leadership.
Musk’s assertion that US bans on Chinese AI models would be ineffective could fuel debates in Washington about the effectiveness of technology restrictions on China. Critics of export controls and bans have long argued that such measures merely accelerate China’s push for self-sufficiency.
What’s Next
As the US-China technology rivalry continues to intensify, Musk’s comments add a prominent voice to the debate over whether restrictions or competition-driven innovation is the better path forward. With China’s AI sector producing increasingly competitive models and Musk’s own xAI now integrated with SpaceX to pursue space-based data centers, the race for AI supremacy shows no signs of slowing down. The question remains whether Washington will double down on restrictions or recalibrate its approach in response to warnings from industry leaders that bans alone cannot stop China’s ascent.