Belgium’s Watchlist Hits 529 as Minors Radicalize
Belgium’s counterterrorism database now holds 529 individuals prioritized for monitoring, with authorities expressing growing concern over the radicalization of minors. According to the Coordination Unit for Threat Analysis (OCAD), 38 minors are currently on the watchlist, up from approximately 30 at the end of 2024 — a trend officials describe as requiring “special attention.”
The figures, reported by Het Laatste Nieuws on July 28, come against the backdrop of the recent vehicle-ramming attack at Berlin’s Pride parade, where the alleged perpetrator was known to German authorities and was enrolled in a deradicalization program. While OCAD saw no reason to raise Belgium’s threat level — which remains at 3 out of 4 (“serious”) — the data underscores ongoing security challenges.
What Is the Watchlist?
The database, formally known as the Gemeenschappelijke Gegevensbank Terrorisme, Extremisme en Radicaliseringsproces (GGB T.E.R.), is a shared intelligence repository managed by OCAD. It contains profiles of individuals and groups flagged for priority monitoring in connection with extremism, radicalization, or terrorism.
“When people speak of the ‘OCAD list,’ they are actually referring to the GGB T.E.R.,” said Laura Luyten of OCAD. “That is a joint database containing individuals who are prioritized for monitoring in Belgium.” As OCAD confirmed in its March 2026 report, the total number of tracked individuals has been declining steadily from approximately 574 in 2024 and 700 in 2022.
Ideological Breakdown
Jihadism continues to dominate, accounting for 446 of the 529 entities on the list — roughly 84%. Right-wing extremism follows with 47 entries, while the anti-establishment movement accounts for 12 and left-wing extremism for 10. Smaller categories include state terrorism, nihilistic extremism, and the incel phenomenon.
The Rise in Minors
The increase in minors on the watchlist, from approximately 30 in late 2024 to 38 by July 2026, is one of the most alarming trends highlighted by authorities. Laura Luyten noted that “this evolution requires special attention because it indicates that some radicalization trajectories are developing at increasingly younger ages.”
VRT NWS previously reported OCAD Director Gert Vercauteren warning that “online radicalization among young people, including minors, is a major challenge.” Experts point to social media platforms like TikTok as key vectors for extremist recruitment.
Disengagement Programs on the Rise
Despite the overall decline in the watchlist’s size, the number of individuals enrolled in deradicalization — or “disengagement” — trajectories has surged. Currently, 109 people are undergoing such programs, a dramatic increase from just six a decade ago.
Youcef Naimi, an expert at Ceapire, the expertise center on radicalization and extremism that runs many of these programs, described the approach: “We try to detach people from violent extremism and help them function again in society.” A typical trajectory consists of about 30 sessions spread over six months to a year.
Naimi attributes the sharp rise in enrollments not to a worsening radicalization crisis, but to improved detection. “Local governments, police, schools, and care providers recognize the signals more quickly and refer people more quickly,” he told HLN. “In the past, some behaviors were not seen as extremism but were dismissed as mischief or adolescent behavior. Today, there is faster investigation into what is actually happening.”
Berlin Attack: A Cautionary Tale
The July 2026 Berlin Pride attack, in which a vehicle rammed into parade-goers killing one and wounding 29, has sharpened the focus on the limits of deradicalization programs. The suspect, Abdul Ballout, had been known to authorities since 2024 for sharing Islamic State propaganda and was under supervised release while enrolled in a deradicalization trajectory.
Naimi acknowledged that while most trajectories are successful, exceptions occur. “It does happen exceptionally that at the end of a trajectory we must indicate that there are still concerning signals,” he said, citing cases where individuals seek renewed contact with extremist networks.
Analysis: A Delicate Balance
The data paints a nuanced picture. The overall number of tracked extremists is declining — a positive trend OCAD attributes to the waning of the mass departures to jihadist conflict zones that marked the 2010s. Yet the radicalization of younger demographics and the persistent threat from online propaganda suggest the challenge is evolving rather than diminishing.
Belgium’s institutional framework — with local task forces, multi-agency information sharing through the GGB T.E.R., and dedicated disengagement programs — provides a comprehensive response. However, as Gert Vercauteren cautioned, “We must not take our foot off the gas in sharing information or in consultation.”
What to Watch For
Authorities are focusing on early detection and societal resilience. The rise in minors on the watchlist, while numerically small, signals a worrying trend that will require targeted prevention efforts in schools and online spaces. The Berlin attack also raises questions about monitoring individuals who are not in detention — a category that includes many of those on Belgium’s list.
As OCAD continues to refine its threat assessments and disengagement programs evolve, the balance between civil liberties and security will remain a delicate one. The answer to whether an attack like Berlin’s could happen in Belgium, as HLN posed, is that it cannot be ruled out — but the mechanisms to prevent it are more robust than ever before.