COVID-19 Surges Across China, Overtaking Influenza

A resurgence of COVID-19 has pushed the virus back to the top of the list of circulating respiratory pathogens on the Chinese mainland for the first time in 2026, with health authorities characterizing the current wave as a moderate epidemic and urging the public not to panic, according to Caixin Global.

During the week of July 13 to 19, the COVID-19 positivity rate at sentinel hospitals across mainland China climbed to 16.3%, an increase of 4.3 percentage points from the previous week, according to the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC). By comparison, influenza positivity during the same period stood at 12.6%, a decline of 0.9 points, marking the first time COVID-19 has outpaced flu in 2026.

The Driving Variant: NB.1.8.1

The dominant strain fueling the surge is the Omicron subvariant NB.1.8.1, which was first detected in China in January 2025. It belongs to the “FLiRT” and “FLuQE” families of variants, known for their enhanced immune evasion capabilities. The South China Morning Post reported that the spread of NB.1.8.1 has reached what the China CDC describes as a “moderate transmission level,” with most patients experiencing mild symptoms and infection rates significantly lower than last year’s peak.

Data from the China CDC shows that the highest positivity rates were recorded among people aged 15 to 59. In June 2026, mainland China recorded 79,000 new confirmed COVID-19 cases, including 130 severe cases and one death.

Why the Summer Surge?

According to the Shanghai Center for Disease Control and Prevention, cited by CGTN, the resurgence is being driven by three converging factors. First, waning immunity: considerable time has passed since China’s last major wave of infections, and antibodies from previous infections and vaccination have naturally declined, leaving a larger susceptible population. Second, summer travel: with schools on break, increased mobility across cities and provinces is giving the virus more opportunities to spread. Third, air-conditioned indoor environments: as temperatures soar, more people spend extended periods indoors with windows closed, creating conditions favorable for airborne transmission.

Southern provinces reported higher positivity rates than northern regions, CGTN noted, citing China CDC data.

Hong Kong and Taiwan Feel the Pressure

The resurgence is not confined to the mainland. Hong Kong is grappling with its worst COVID-19 wave in nearly a year, as reported by Caixin Global. Over the four weeks ending in mid-July, the city recorded 45 severe cases and 7 deaths. The positivity rate surged to 9.79% from under 1% in late May, driven by two variants: NB.1.8.1 and PQ.16.1.1.

A striking 80% of Hong Kong’s severe cases involved patients over the age of 65, and more than 90% of these elderly patients had chronic underlying health conditions and had not received a COVID-19 booster shot within the past six months. Two severe pediatric cases involving unvaccinated children were also recorded in June. Hong Kong is also experiencing a summer flu surge, with influenza A (H3) recording an 8.75% positivity rate.

Meanwhile, disease control authorities in Taiwan project that the current wave will peak in mid-to-late August 2026, suggesting the resurgence has yet to reach its maximum intensity across the Greater China region.

Official Response: Calibrated and Cautious

Chinese health authorities have advised elderly people and those with underlying health conditions to take preventive measures, such as wearing masks in public places and hospitals. However, the current response represents a significant departure from China’s previous zero-COVID approach. There are no mandatory lockdowns or mass testing campaigns being reintroduced. The CDC has characterized the situation as a moderate epidemic and is actively urging against panic.

This calibrated response reflects both policy learning from previous waves and the reduced virulence of current variants. The focus is on voluntary precautions for vulnerable populations rather than population-wide restrictions.

What to Watch For

Several questions remain unanswered. Will the current wave on the mainland escalate beyond moderate levels, particularly as Taiwan projects a mid-August peak? How effective are current vaccine formulations against the NB.1.8.1 variant? And what is the extent of unreported cases given China’s shift away from mass testing?

The NB.1.8.1 variant has been detected in multiple countries, including India, Thailand, and the United States, suggesting the Chinese surge may serve as an early indicator of broader global circulation patterns. For now, health authorities across the region are urging vigilance without alarm, as the virus once again reclaims its position as the dominant respiratory threat.