China’s Elderly Population Surpasses 323 Million

China’s elderly population has surpassed 323 million, marking a demographic milestone that underscores the mounting pressures facing the world’s most populous nation. According to Caixin Global, the country’s population aged 60 and older reached 323.38 million by the end of 2025, representing 23% of the total population—an increase of more than 100 million over the past decade.

A Decade of Unprecedented Growth

The figures, released in the 2025 Annual Report on National Aging Development by the Ministry of Civil Affairs and the Office of the National Working Commission on Aging, show that China added 13.07 million elderly people in 2025 alone. The 60+ population has grown from approximately 220 million in 2015 to 323.38 million in 2025, as Caixin reported, making China the country with the world’s largest elderly population.

The report also revealed that China had 223.65 million people aged 65 and older by end of 2025, accounting for 15.9% of the population. The old-age dependency ratio—the number of people aged 65+ relative to every 100 working-age people—rose to 23.1%, nearly doubling over the past decade, according to data cited by China Daily. Meanwhile, average life expectancy reached 79.25 years.

Entering Moderate Aging

With 23% of its population aged 60 and older, China has firmly entered the moderately aging society stage, which spans 20-30% of the population. According to international consensus, a country with 60+ population between 10-20% is in the mild aging stage; 20-30% is moderate aging; and over 30% is severe aging.

China entered the aging society stage in 2000 when the 60+ population first exceeded 7% of the total. It crossed into the moderately aging stage around 2021. The National Health Commission projects that China will enter the severely aging stage by approximately 2035, when the elderly population is expected to exceed 400 million and account for more than 30% of the total population—a transition expected to take only about 14 years, compared to much longer periods in developed countries.

Straining the Social Safety Net

The demographic shift is placing significant strain on China’s pension and healthcare systems. The old-age dependency ratio’s near-doubling over the past decade means there are now approximately 23.1 elderly people for every 100 working-age individuals, intensifying pressure on the pension system.

Despite these challenges, coverage of social insurance programs has continued to expand. As Economic Daily reported, over 1.075 billion people were covered by basic pension insurance by end of 2025, an increase of 3.09 million from the previous year. Basic medical insurance covered more than 1.33 billion people, with the coverage rate stable at 95%. Approximately 309 million people were enrolled in long-term care insurance, with nearly 1.93 million receiving benefits.

Elderly welfare subsidies have also expanded, with 53.538 million elderly people receiving various forms of support, including old-age allowances, nursing subsidies, and elderly care service subsidies, according to the same report.

Building Eldercare Infrastructure

China has been rapidly building out its eldercare service network. By end of 2025, the country had 395,000 eldercare institutions and facilities nationwide. County-level public eldercare institutions achieved 100% coverage, and 20,500 township regional eldercare service centers were built, representing a 53% coverage rate. Community eldercare service institutions and facilities numbered 356,100, with over 140,000 rural mutual-aid eldercare facilities.

However, gaps remain. China had 7.68 million eldercare beds by end of 2025, below the 9 million target, according to Guancha.cn. The country also faces a significant shortage of eldercare workers, with an estimated gap of over 5 million professional caregivers.

Elderly meal services have shown progress, with 80,000 meal service points nationwide serving over 3 million elderly people daily. Central welfare lottery funds allocated 300 million yuan to support 20,000 meal service points.

Demographic Headwinds

The aging challenge is compounded by declining birth rates. China’s total population was 1.40489 billion at end of 2025, a decrease of 3.39 million from the previous year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Only 7.92 million births were recorded in 2025, with a natural growth rate of -2.41 per thousand, as China News Service noted.

Falling birth rates are weakening family-based care, which has traditionally been the backbone of elderly support in China. This is particularly acute in rural areas, where out-migration of working-age adults has left many elderly residents as “empty nesters.”

Policy Response and the Silver Economy

China has adopted a national strategy for actively responding to population aging. Key measures include deepening pension system reform, expanding long-term care insurance, developing the silver economy, and building a three-tier eldercare service network at county, township, and village levels.

Cities are increasingly looking to transform aging populations into a “demographic dividend” to alleviate pension burdens and plug labor shortages. As Caixin Global reported, Shanghai—China’s first megacity to experience deep aging, with 5.769 million residents aged 60+—has launched initiatives to encourage elderly re-employment and expand insurance coverage for older workers.

In rural areas, the government is formalizing “mutual elderly care” models where younger seniors look after their older neighbors. Caixin Global reported that eleven government departments issued guidelines mandating that by 2030, at least 70% of urban and rural communities will have facilities supporting this mutual-aid model. Nikkei Asia noted that this approach faces funding challenges, particularly in poorer regions.

What to Watch For

The trajectory is clear: China’s elderly population will continue to grow substantially in the coming decades. The National Health Commission projects the elderly population will exceed 400 million by approximately 2035 and reach its peak around 2050.

As the country accelerates toward severe aging, the key questions will be whether pension reform can keep pace, whether eldercare infrastructure can close the service gap, and whether the silver economy can transform demographic challenges into economic opportunities. The answers will shape not only China’s social fabric but also its economic trajectory for decades to come.