China Unveils Ambitious Geological Disaster Prevention Plan

China’s Ministry of Natural Resources has released the implementation plan for national geological disaster prevention covering the 2026-2030 period, outlining a comprehensive strategy to protect more than 11 million people currently threatened by geological hazards. The plan, published on August 4, marks a significant paradigm shift from point-based defense to broader risk-zone management in response to climate change-driven extreme weather events.

A Growing Threat

According to Xinhua News, as of the end of 2025, nearly 280,000 geological disaster points were registered nationwide, threatening 11.48 million people and over 760 billion yuan (approximately $106 billion) in property. China’s diverse terrain, complex geological conditions, strong tectonic activity, and frequent extreme weather make it highly susceptible to landslides, collapses, debris flows, land subsidence, and ground fissures.

The scale of the challenge is compounded by climate change. Yang Xudong, a senior engineer at the Geological Disaster Technical Guidance Center of the Ministry of Natural Resources, told CNR China National Radio that “extreme heavy rainfall has triggered sudden, mass, and compound chain disasters in many non-key prevention areas, causing casualties and bringing major challenges to geological disaster prevention and response.”

Key Targets for 2026-2030

The plan sets ambitious targets for the five-year period, including deploying geological disaster engineering treatment at over 4,200 sites, eliminating hazards at over 6,100 sites, and relocating 50,000 households from high-risk areas. According to Securities Times, the plan also mandates the implementation of “dual control” management across 1,206 key and secondary key counties, cities, and districts in 17 priority provinces.

Expanded Prevention Zones

A central feature of the plan is the expansion of key geological disaster prevention zones from 16 to 21 nationwide. The new designations include 17 zones for landslides, collapses, debris flows, and ground subsidence covering approximately 2.97 million square kilometers, plus 4 zones for land subsidence and ground fissures covering about 280,000 square kilometers.

As China Daily reported, the expanded zoning reflects the urgency of disaster prevention around major infrastructure projects, hidden chain-type hazards, and northern regions. New additions include the Yarlung Tsangpo (Yaxia) hydropower project area, high-altitude long-distance disaster chain areas, and the Yanshan-Taihang Mountain region, while the southeast hills and southwest mountain zones have been further refined.

Yang Xudong explained the significance of these additions: “The ‘14th Five-Year Plan’ divided the country into 16 key geological disaster prevention zones, mainly traditional high-susceptibility areas. The ‘15th Five-Year Plan’ divides the country into 21 zones, further refining the southeast hills and southwest mountain zones, and adding the Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower project, high-altitude remote disaster chains, and the Yanshan-Taihang Mountain regions.”

A Paradigm Shift in Prevention Strategy

The plan represents a fundamental change in how China approaches geological disaster prevention. Yang Xudong described this as entering a “third stage” of disaster prevention, moving beyond traditional point-based monitoring to address sudden, mass shallow-surface landslides and debris flows triggered by extreme rainfall that often have no warning signs.

“Whether relying on traditional ‘mass monitoring + professional inspection’ or promoting large-scale application of high-precision remote sensing mapping technology, the first two stages mainly addressed geological disaster points with obvious deformation signs,” Yang told CCTV News. “The third stage we are gradually entering directly confronts mass shallow-surface landslides and debris flows induced by extreme rainfall. These disasters often have no warning signs and suddenly occur during the heaviest rainfall.”

This recognition has driven the shift from managing hazards at specific “points” to managing risks across broader “surfaces.” The plan’s “dual control” approach combines hazard point management with risk zone designation, acknowledging that under extreme climate conditions, some disasters remain “impossible to fully prevent” with existing technology.

Technology-Driven Prevention

The plan emphasizes deploying advanced technologies to improve hazard identification and early warning accuracy. Key measures include conducting 1:10,000 scale detailed geological surveys in key towns, using artificial intelligence and digital twins to enhance prediction capabilities, and continuing three-dimensional monitoring of land subsidence in 19 provinces.

These efforts build on significant progress during the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025), when China deployed over 75,000 automated monitoring and early warning devices across 27 provinces. As reported by CNR China National Radio, these investments yielded measurable results: geological disaster-caused deaths and missing persons decreased by 52 percent, and direct economic losses decreased by 38 percent compared to the previous five-year period.

The new plan also calls for establishing a province-city-county integrated geological disaster meteorological risk warning platform and exploring county-level short-term warnings, building on the nationwide county-level warning coverage achieved during the previous period.

Seven Key Tasks

The plan outlines seven priority tasks for the 2026-2030 period: advancing relocation and engineering treatment; strengthening source control and detailed surveys; enhancing monitoring and early warning capabilities; implementing “dual control” management; improving defense response and grassroots disaster prevention capabilities; strengthening innovation in prevention theory and technical methods; and building a comprehensive “One Map” geological disaster prevention sub-scenario.

Implications and Outlook

The plan’s release signals China’s proactive approach to climate change adaptation in the disaster prevention domain. By expanding prevention zones, deploying AI-driven monitoring, and shifting to risk-based management, the government aims to protect both lives and critical infrastructure in an era of increasingly unpredictable geological hazards.

The focus on major engineering projects, such as the Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower development, highlights the intersection of infrastructure security and disaster prevention. As the plan’s implementation unfolds over the coming years, the effectiveness of this paradigm shift will be measured by its ability to reduce casualties and economic losses in the face of intensifying climate-related risks.

For now, the plan represents a significant upgrade in China’s geological disaster prevention thinking—one that acknowledges the limits of traditional approaches and embraces a more comprehensive, technology-enabled strategy to safeguard the millions of people living in hazard-prone regions across the country.