Belgium’s July 2026: Hot, Sunny, and Extremely Dry — Are We Heading for a Record Summer?
Belgium experienced one of its driest and sunniest Julys on record, according to the monthly climate report published by the Royal Meteorological Institute (IRM). With just 11.1 mm of precipitation recorded at the Uccle reference station — against a normal of 76.9 mm — July 2026 ranked as the second driest July in the current reference period (1991-2020), RTBF reported.
The month also delivered near-record sunshine and above-normal temperatures, continuing a pattern that has seen 18 consecutive months with above-average temperatures in Belgium. As the country now faces its second official heat wave of the summer, questions are mounting about whether 2026 could go down as a record-breaking year.
A Month of Extremes
Only three days of precipitation were recorded at Uccle in July, compared with a normal of 14.1 days. Nationwide, just five thunderstorm days were observed against a typical 13.2, with only 2020 and 2022 seeing fewer. In the historical record dating back to 1833, only July 1885 had fewer precipitation days, with just two. At Dunkerque, just across the French border, zero millimeters of rain fell during the entire month.
The dryness was compounded by intense heat. The average monthly temperature at Uccle reached 20.9°C, well above the seasonal normal of 18.7°C, making it the fourth warmest July on record for the current reference period and the fifth warmest since observations began in 1833. The highest temperature nationwide was recorded on July 29 at Liège-Monsin, where the mercury hit 36.6°C.
Sunshine was equally exceptional. With 307 hours and 51 minutes of sunlight — against a normal of 203 hours and 14 minutes — July 2026 became the fourth sunniest July since records began in 1887, according to the IRM’s official climate bulletin.
A Record 30-Day Hot Spell
The heat was not confined to July alone. The period from June 17 to July 16, 2026, was the hottest 30-day period in Belgian meteorological history, with an average temperature of 23.4°C — surpassing the previous record of 23.2°C set during the famous drought summer of 1976. A record was also set for average minimum temperatures over the same period, as MeteoBelgique noted in its analysis.
Interestingly, the long hot period from July 6 to 17 came within just 0.1°C of meeting the official criteria for a heat wave, with 29.9°C recorded on July 11 against the 30°C threshold required. But a new heat wave began on July 28 and was officially confirmed on August 4, when 30.1°C was recorded at Uccle, as L’Avenir reported.
Drought Measures and Water Scarcity
The extreme dryness has triggered concrete responses. The Flemish drought commission declared code orange — indicating effective water scarcity — two weeks before the end of July. A pumping ban was imposed on non-navigable waterways, and locks on navigable waterways are being used more sparingly. Groundwater levels are low to very low at three-quarters of monitored locations, according to hydrologist Patrick Willems of KU Leuven.
Several vegetation fires occurred during the month, though all were quickly brought under control.
The Blue Deal Under Scrutiny
The drought has reignited debate about Flanders’ Blue Deal, the water scarcity response plan launched in 2020 with an initial budget of over €500 million. As VRT NWS reported, experts acknowledge the plan has helped but say it is not moving fast enough.
“Without the Blue Deal, the situation would be much worse,” said Willems, who helped shape the plan. “It’s definitely a very good plan. Really good measures are being taken.” However, he acknowledged that “the places where work has already been done are still just dots on the whole map of Flanders, and it’s going somewhat slowly.”
Niko Verhoest, a hydrologist at Ghent University, was more critical: “Here and there the results of the Blue Deal are already visible, but that is very local. We are still far from where we need to be.”
Benjamin Clarysse, director of the environmental organization Bond Beter Leefmilieu, called on the government to allocate additional funding during upcoming budget negotiations: “We hope the government keeps this summer’s heat in mind and provides extra budget for the Blue Deal.”
A Deadly Summer Context
The current drought follows an exceptionally deadly June heat wave. According to RTBF’s analysis of Sciensano data, Belgium recorded 1,747 excess deaths between June 18 and July 1 — a 47.8% excess mortality rate, the highest from heat since records began in 2000. Wallonia was hit hardest with 76% excess mortality, and notably, people aged 15-64 also experienced 61.3% excess mortality.
June 2026 was also the hottest June ever recorded in Western Europe, with an average temperature of 20.74°C — 3.05°C above the 1991-2020 average, according to Copernicus data reported by RTBF. The heat was driven partly by the return of El Niño in the equatorial Pacific.
What’s Next?
The second heat wave of 2026, which began on July 28, is expected to end Thursday or Friday (August 6-7) as temperatures drop below 25°C. But hydrologists warn that the broader pattern is concerning.
“The summer is far from over. We still have August and September ahead of us,” Willems told VRT NWS. “The prospect of lots of rain and less warm temperatures is not there yet.”
IRM climatologist Pascal Mormal has noted that heat waves that used to occur once every 25 to 50 years are now recurring frequently, both in duration and intensity. As RTBF reported in June, he attributes this trend to climate change: “What we’ve been observing for about ten years in particular is the repetition of these heat episodes, intense heat waves, both in duration and intensity.”
With 18 consecutive months of above-normal temperatures and the hottest 30-day period ever recorded, Belgium appears to be in uncharted territory. Whether this summer ultimately breaks the all-time record will depend on the weather patterns of the coming weeks — but the trends so far suggest the country is experiencing a summer unlike any in its meteorological history.