China’s Provincial Reports Show Solid ‘15th Five-Year’ Start

All 31 of China’s provincial-level regions reported positive GDP growth in the first half of 2026, according to data compiled by Xinhua News. The national economy expanded 4.7% year-on-year to reach 69.6 trillion yuan ($9.8 trillion), marking a steady opening for the “15th Five-Year” plan period (2026-2030). Ten provinces achieved growth rates of 5% or higher, with most regions surpassing the 4.5% threshold.

A Strategic Opening Year

2026 marks the first year of China’s “15th Five-Year” plan, approved at the 14th National People’s Congress on March 12. The plan outlines 20 major indicators, 16 strategic tasks, and 109 major engineering projects, with the first strategic priority being the construction of a modern industrial system to consolidate the real economy. As People’s Daily reported, the opening year has been framed around strengthening internal capabilities and pursuing high-quality development.

A July 30 Politburo meeting chaired by President Xi Jinping emphasized the need to “enhance development momentum, stimulate social vitality, promote sustained economic progress toward new and better development, and strive for a good start to the ‘15th Five-Year’ plan.”

Provincial Rankings and Growth Leaders

Guangdong maintained its position as China’s largest provincial economy with first-half GDP of 7.22 trillion yuan, followed closely by Jiangsu at 7.04 trillion yuan — the first time two provinces have crossed the 7 trillion yuan threshold in the same period. Shandong (5.32 trillion yuan) and Zhejiang (4.79 trillion yuan) rounded out the top four, according to People’s Daily Overseas Edition.

Xizang Autonomous Region posted the fastest growth nationally at 6.3%, 1.6 percentage points above the national average. Among major economic provinces, Zhejiang led with 5.7% growth, followed by Shandong, Shanghai, and Anhui at 5.6% each. Jiangsu recorded 5.2% growth — its 13th consecutive quarter above 5% — while Henan and Hubei each grew 5.0%.

Anhui emerged as a notable riser, entering the top 10 provincial economies for the first time with GDP of 2.74 trillion yuan. The province’s ascent reflects a broader shift toward innovation-driven growth, with high-tech manufacturing value-added surging 44.6% year-on-year.

New Quality Productive Forces Take Center Stage

The half-year reports reveal a clear pattern: new quality productive forces — encompassing high-tech manufacturing, digital products, and emerging industries — are becoming the primary engine of industrial growth. According to preliminary estimates from the National Bureau of Statistics, these new drivers accounted for roughly 20% of industrial value-added but contributed nearly 50% of industrial growth.

Hubei’s high-tech manufacturing share of industrial output rose from 17.4% to 24.8%, contributing 78.2% to industrial growth. Henan’s high-tech manufacturing grew 26.1%, with aerospace equipment investment surging 230%. Anhui’s “new three” exports — electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar products — grew 110%, helping the province surpass Sichuan as the largest foreign trade province in central-western China.

The semiconductor sector exemplifies this transformation. As Global Times reported, Anhui’s rise is closely tied to ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), which completed a landmark IPO on July 27, becoming the most valuable listed company in China. “In addition to CXMT, the province’s semiconductor industry has been expanding rapidly, having moved from single-point breakthroughs to the rise of a complete industrial chain covering design, manufacturing, packaging and testing, as well as equipment and materials,” said Tian Yun, a Beijing-based veteran analyst.

Services Sector Emerges as Growth Driver

The services sector proved a critical pillar of provincial economies. Nationwide, services value-added reached 41.4 trillion yuan, up 5.2% year-on-year and contributing 66.1% to overall economic growth. Shanghai’s services value-added grew 5.9%, with the financial sector expanding 10.2%. Shandong’s services grew 6.4%, 1.2 percentage points above the national average, while Liaoning’s services share of GDP exceeded 60% for the first time.

Li Chang’an, a professor at the Academy of China Open Economy Studies at the University of International Business and Economics, told Global Times that “the services sector will emerge as a new growth point of the national economy, as areas such as leasing and business services, information transmission, software as well as information technology services are also important components of new quality productive forces.”

Regional Coordination and Diversification

Analysts see the provincial data as evidence that regional development has entered a new phase. Zhang Linshan, a researcher at the National Development and Reform Commission’s Macroeconomic Research Institute, told People’s Daily Overseas Edition that “looking through the 31 provinces’ half-year economic ‘report cards,’ regional development has moved beyond simply competing on total scale, entering a stage of competing on industrial quality, new-old momentum conversion, and coordinated development capability.”

Central and western provinces posted notable gains. Shaanxi’s foreign trade grew 93.7%, with trade to Belt and Road countries up 110%. Guizhou’s six major industrial clusters now account for 83.9% of industrial output, lifting its national GDP ranking to 21st. Jiangxi’s GDP ranking rose to 14th, supported by rural retail sales growth of 8.6%.

Dong Yu, deputy executive director of Tsinghua University’s China Development Planning Research Institute, observed that “each region leverages its own endowments, adheres to local conditions, finds its position in the overall plan, and transforms comparative advantages into industrial and competitive advantages.”

Outlook for the Second Half

Looking ahead, the July 30 Politburo meeting set the tone for H2 economic policy, emphasizing the need to consolidate the momentum of stable growth. Key priorities include expanding domestic demand, accelerating infrastructure investment — with the “six networks” expected to draw over 7 trillion yuan — and deepening reform and opening-up.

Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, told Global Times that “China’s economic powerhouses will continue playing a driving and stabilizing role, while central and western regions such as Anhui and Xizang will continue to take advantage of regional resources to speed up development.”

As the “15th Five-Year” plan enters its second half-year, the provincial reports underscore both the resilience of China’s regional economies and the accelerating transition toward innovation-driven, high-quality growth. The extent to which new quality productive forces can sustain this momentum — and how effectively provinces translate local advantages into competitive strengths — will be key indicators to watch in the months ahead.