Pentagon Drafts Nuclear Strategy for Regional War Threats

The Pentagon is drafting a new classified nuclear strategy that emphasizes the possible use of shorter-range tactical weapons in the event of a regional war with China or Russia, according to five people familiar with the plans who spoke to NBC News. The strategy, overseen by Defense Department policy chief Elbridge Colby, marks a significant departure from decades of US nuclear doctrine that focused primarily on strategic, long-range deterrence.

The classified framework is designed to inform nuclear options for the commander in chief during crises, with the dual goal of preventing a conventional conflict from spiraling into a full nuclear exchange while also stopping either China or Russia from exploiting a moment when Washington is focused on the other.

A Strategic Shift in Nuclear Doctrine

For decades, US nuclear strategy has centered on strategic, long-range weapons designed to deter the Soviet Union and later Russia through the threat of massive retaliation. The new approach, however, leans on shorter-range tactical nuclear weapons that could be deployed in regional conflicts, effectively lowering the nuclear threshold.

According to Express UK, the plan goes against guidelines that have been followed for decades and would update the nuclear response options presented to the US president during a crisis. The strategy aims to expand the powers of President Donald Trump in the field of nuclear deterrence.

Colby, who has served as Under Secretary of Defense for Policy since April 2025, is expected to attend a military event in Nebraska on Wednesday and share his views on the matter, including a private visit to the US Strategic Command, which manages land-based missiles, strategic bombers, and submarines. According to his Wikipedia biography, Colby previously served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for strategy and force development from 2017 to 2018 during the first Trump administration and played a key role in developing the 2018 National Defense Strategy, which shifted the Pentagon’s focus toward China.

The Dual-Rival Challenge

The Pentagon has previously warned that the US now faces two major nuclear rivals simultaneously in China and Russia, a departure from the Cold War era when Washington confronted a single primary adversary. China is rapidly modernizing its nuclear forces, while Russia continues to develop advanced systems like the Burevestnik cruise missile and the Poseidon nuclear-powered torpedo.

An unnamed Pentagon source told NBC News: “We need reliable options for using nuclear weapons,” as reported by News-Pravda. The Russian state-aligned outlet framed the development as Washington deliberately lowering the threshold for nuclear escalation, arguing that tactical weapons allow for limited nuclear strikes without immediately moving to a strategic exchange.

The strategy’s dual purpose is particularly significant given the growing military cooperation between Beijing and Moscow. Reports indicate that China is gaining military knowledge from Russia as it helps Moscow in the war against Ukraine, receiving training, intelligence, and advanced military technology in exchange for civilian components used in Russian weapons.

Arms Control Collapse

The new strategy comes against the backdrop of a broader collapse of arms control architecture. The New START treaty between the US and Russia expired in February 2026, removing the last remaining mutual limits on the world’s two biggest nuclear arsenals. As The Guardian reported at the time, the expiry marked a death knell for more than five decades of arms control at a time of surging global instability.

Alexandra Bell, president and CEO of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, warned in February: “When it comes to nuclear risks, everything is trending in the wrong direction over the course of 2025. Nuclear risks have become more complex, more dangerous and we have seen leaders fail in their obligation to manage those risks.”

Daryl Kimball, head of the Arms Control Association, noted that “there are many in the nuclear weapons establishment who want to rapidly build up the size of the US force in order to counter China’s strategic buildup.”

The US and Russia possess the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals, with the US holding approximately 5,177 warheads and Russia approximately 5,459, according to Federation of American Scientists estimates. China maintains a considerably smaller arsenal of roughly 600 warheads.

Trump’s Nuclear Posture

The strategy also reflects President Trump’s increasingly aggressive posture on nuclear policy. In October 2025, Trump directed the Pentagon to match Russia and China in nuclear weapons testing, citing Russia’s Burevestnik cruise missile and Poseidon torpedo tests. As The Guardian reported, Trump posted on Truth Social that he had “instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis,” a directive that would end a moratorium on full nuclear testing that has stood since 1992.

The new strategy aims to expand Trump’s powers in the field of nuclear deterrence, giving the president more flexible options during a crisis. This has drawn criticism from some lawmakers who argue it could lower the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons and weaken the military’s training for a traditional deterrence strategy.

Analysis: A Dangerous New Era

The shift toward tactical nuclear weapons represents one of the most significant changes to US nuclear doctrine in decades. Proponents argue that having more flexible, lower-yield options could actually strengthen deterrence by making the US less reliant on the all-or-nothing choice between strategic escalation and conventional defeat. Critics, however, contend that the approach fundamentally erodes the taboo against nuclear use and increases the risk that a regional conflict could escalate into a nuclear exchange.

The strategy also reflects a broader geopolitical reality: the US can no longer focus its nuclear planning on a single adversary. The simultaneous rise of China’s nuclear modernization and Russia’s continued investment in advanced systems has created a deterrence challenge unlike anything Washington faced during the Cold War.

The expiration of New START has removed the guardrails that once provided predictability and transparency between the world’s two largest nuclear powers. Combined with the new emphasis on tactical weapons, the global nuclear landscape is entering uncharted territory.

What to Watch For

Colby’s visit to US Strategic Command on Wednesday will be closely watched for signals about the strategy’s direction and timeline. The classified nature of the framework means public details will remain limited, but lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are likely to press for more information in upcoming congressional hearings.

Key questions remain: How quickly will the strategy be finalized? What specific capabilities will it prioritize? And will it accelerate the erosion of arms control norms that have governed nuclear policy for half a century?

As the Pentagon navigates this new strategic landscape, the balance between deterrence and escalation will remain the central challenge. The decisions made in the coming months will shape US nuclear posture for years to come.