Ryanair Sets New Record with 22.2 Million Passengers in July

Ryanair, Europe’s largest airline by passenger numbers, carried a record 22.2 million passengers in July, a 7% increase compared to the same month last year. The Dublin-based low-cost carrier operated more than 120,800 flights during the month, with its load factor reaching 96%, unchanged year-on-year, according to the company’s official traffic release.

On a 12-month rolling basis to the end of July, Ryanair carried 213.2 million passengers, a 5% increase year-on-year, up from 203.1 million in the previous 12-month period. The airline benefited from strong demand for flights to popular holiday destinations, particularly in Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Greece, as RTBF reported.

Record Traffic Amid Industry Headwinds

The record passenger numbers come against a backdrop of significant challenges for the European aviation sector. The five-month-old US-Iran war has driven up oil prices dramatically, with unhedged jet fuel prices doubling to $150 per barrel. This has put pressure on airlines across the continent, with Germany’s Lufthansa cutting its profit outlook and warning earnings could fall this year, sending its shares down more than 10%, as The Irish Times noted.

Ryanair’s own financial results reflect these pressures. The airline’s Q1 (April-June 2026) profit after tax declined 34% to €538 million, down from €820 million in the same period last year. Revenue rose slightly from €4.34 billion to €4.38 billion, while operating costs jumped 11% from €3.42 billion to €3.81 billion, according to the company’s Q1 results statement.

Revenue per available passenger fell 5% as average fares dropped 6%, reflecting the airline’s efforts to stimulate demand amid consumer hesitancy caused by the Middle East conflict and economic uncertainty.

Fuel Hedging Provides a Buffer

Ryanair’s conservative fuel hedging strategy has insulated the airline from the worst of the oil price spike. The company has 80% of its FY27 jet fuel hedged at approximately $67 per barrel, and has extended hedges into FY28 at approximately $85 per barrel (15% hedged).

“Ryanair’s conservative hedging policy insulates Group earnings during volatile oil markets and widens our cost advantage over all other EU competitors,” said Michael O’Leary, Ryanair Group CEO, in the company’s Q1 results release.

This cost advantage is significant in a market where many competitors remain exposed to unhedged jet fuel and expensive aircraft leases. Ryanair operates a fleet of 647 aircraft across 36 countries and expects FY27 traffic growth of 4% to 216 million passengers.

The Belgium Tax Dispute

Ryanair’s growth strategy is also shaped by its response to government tax policies. The airline recently announced it would withdraw five aircraft from its Charleroi base in Belgium and cut two million seats from Belgian flight plans for winter 2026 and summer 2027, in response to the Belgian federal government’s decision to raise the aviation embarkation tax from €5 to €7 starting January 1, 2027, as RTBF detailed.

“It is absurd that the federal government has decided to increase Belgium’s aviation tax by 250% from January 2027, particularly when EU competitor countries like Sweden, Hungary, Slovakia or Albania are abolishing aviation taxes to stimulate traffic, tourism and employment,” said Eddie Wilson, Ryanair CEO.

Strategic Pivot to Lower-Cost Markets

The airline is focusing its capacity growth on markets with lower taxes and fees, such as Albania, Italy, Morocco, Slovakia, and Sweden, while withdrawing from high-tax markets like Austria, Dublin, Germany, and regional Spain. For Summer 2026, Ryanair has opened three new bases (Rabat, Tirana, and Trapani) and 130 new routes, as Business Plus reported.

Price-sensitive passengers are booking later, with only about 40% of September seats sold at the time of the July traffic announcement. Analysts have cut targets for airlines while Ryanair itself has warned summer fares are likely to be lower than expected, according to Connaught Telegraph.

What’s Next

The record July traffic demonstrates Ryanair’s resilience in a challenging operating environment, but the airline’s outlook remains cautious. O’Leary noted that the final FY27 profit remains “highly sensitive to adverse external developments, including conflict escalation in the Middle East and Ukraine, the price of unhedged jet-fuel, macro-economic shocks and continuing European ATC strikes.”

Ryanair expects European short-haul capacity to remain constrained until at least 2030 due to OEM delivery delays, Pratt & Whitney engine repair issues, EU airline consolidation, and unprofitable airlines facing a difficult winter. The airline targets growth to over 300 million passengers per year by FY34, positioning itself to capture further market share as weaker competitors struggle.

For now, the record July figures provide a bright spot in an otherwise turbulent period for European aviation, underscoring Ryanair’s ability to grow its passenger base even as profitability comes under pressure from external forces beyond its control.