El-Sayed’s Upset Win Reshapes Michigan Senate Race
Abdul El-Sayed, a former public health official who harnessed Democratic frustration with the party establishment, narrowly defeated Rep. Haley Stevens in Michigan’s U.S. Senate primary on Tuesday, setting up a crucial test for progressives in a key battleground state. The Associated Press called the race early Wednesday morning, with El-Sayed leading Stevens by 14,893 votes — just under 1 percentage point — out of more than 1.5 million ballots counted, the most in recent state history.
El-Sayed will face Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman and FBI agent, in November in a race that will help determine control of the U.S. Senate. If elected, El-Sayed would become the first Muslim U.S. senator in history.
A Comeback From Political Oblivion
El-Sayed’s victory marks an extraordinary political trajectory. Seven years after losing Michigan’s Democratic gubernatorial primary to Gretchen Whitmer by more than 20 percentage points, the 41-year-old Rhodes Scholar — who has never held elected office — staged one of the most remarkable comebacks in modern American politics.
“Abdul’s victory was, in my opinion, the most extraordinary victory that I can think of in modern American politics,” said Sen. Bernie Sanders, the progressive leader who was an early supporter of El-Sayed’s candidacy.
After his 2018 defeat, El-Sayed retreated into the political wilderness, starting a podcast, writing a book, and becoming a regular presence on YouTube and television. The opening came when Sen. Gary Peters announced he would not seek reelection, creating an open Senate seat in one of the country’s most competitive states.
El-Sayed launched his campaign in April 2025 with a staff of four. He visited 110 cities, hosted more than 500 events, and built a volunteer network of 12,000 people. “Back in April, I remember talking to a room of five people,” he said in his victory speech. “It was an opportunity for us to share a honest conversation about pain and about purpose. And I’ve been able to have 500 more of those discussions over the past 15 months.”
Beating the Money Machine
The race became the most expensive Democratic Senate primary in U.S. history. Outside groups backing Stevens spent more than $60 million, including more than $30 million from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and its affiliates. Stevens and her allies spent nearly nine times as much on advertising as El-Sayed and his allied groups, according to AdImpact.
“We took on a machine,” El-Sayed said Wednesday. “You’re not supposed to be able to beat $70m of outside spending, a record amount of money spent in a campaign against a Democrat in a primary, in any campaign. You’re not supposed to be able to beat that. And what we showed is that the power of our many is greater than the power of their money.” The Guardian reported on the record-breaking spending and El-Sayed’s response.
AIPAC, which spent more on Michigan’s primary than any other race, signaled it would continue opposing El-Sayed in November, saying it would oppose “his radical anti-Israel agenda.” Al Jazeera covered the blow to AIPAC and the significance of the result.
A Defining Test for Progressives
El-Sayed’s victory gave progressives evidence that their politics could prevail not just in deep-blue cities and congressional districts, but in a Democratic primary in one of the nation’s premier swing states. It is the first leftist victory in a Senate race in the 2026 election cycle.
“Abdul El-Sayed is now the tip of the spear for the theory that shake-up-the-system economic fighters can win in swing states,” said Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee. The November race against Rogers, Green added, is “put up or shut up time” for the movement.
Sen. Chris Van Hollen, another progressive leader who endorsed El-Sayed, said the victory “should be a wake-up call to the Washington Democratic establishment.”
El-Sayed campaigned on “Medicare for All,” ending military aid to Israel, and campaign finance reform. He had support from progressive leaders including Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who framed the race as both a grassroots movement and a broader fight against the establishment and big-money spending. NBC News projected El-Sayed’s victory and detailed the progressive momentum behind his campaign.
The Israel-Palestine issue was particularly salient in Michigan, which has a large Muslim and Arab American population. El-Sayed called for ending all unconditional U.S. military aid to Israel and recognized Israel’s atrocities in Gaza as a genocide. Stevens voted to provide additional military aid to Israel.
Maya Berry of the Arab American Institute called El-Sayed’s victory a “big deal,” saying voters “did not buy” the avalanche of negative ads “about an Arab American Muslim man named Abdul.”
The Harder Test Comes in November
El-Sayed now has three months to prove the movement that carried him through the primary can win a general election. The Senate Republican campaign arm has already reserved $45 million in Michigan advertising to support Rogers, a number likely to grow.
A MIRS/Mitchell Research poll showed El-Sayed leading Rogers 47% to 42% in the general election matchup. Rogers ran unopposed in the GOP primary and was endorsed early by Donald Trump. He was the Republican nominee for Senate in 2024, losing to Elissa Slotkin by less than 20,000 votes.
Michigan is one of only two Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state won by Donald Trump in 2024. Republicans have not won a U.S. Senate race in Michigan since 1994.
Stevens called El-Sayed early Wednesday to concede and pledged her support. “I want to congratulate Abdul El-Sayed on winning the Democratic nomination for US Senate,” she said in a statement. “He is a doctor, a community health official, a Rhodes Scholar, and a dedicated Michigander. I am proud to offer my support as he takes on Mike Rogers in the general election.”
Michigan Democrats are expected to gather for a unity breakfast Thursday before a public rally Friday. Curtis Hertel, the Michigan Democratic Party chair, said the party would unite. “We will unite together, and we will win this race,” Hertel said, “because we have to.”
“Tomorrow we begin to mend fences,” El-Sayed said. “There is so much more that unites us than divides us.”
At his victory press conference, El-Sayed delivered a direct warning to his November opponent: “Mike — and I know you’re listening, Mike — we are coming for you.”
What to Watch For
The November general election in Michigan will be one of the most closely watched races in the country, with implications for Senate control, the direction of the Democratic Party, and the viability of progressive politics in swing states. The Intercept noted that El-Sayed’s win is the first leftist victory in a Senate race this election cycle, and progressives will be watching whether his anti-corporate, grassroots message can translate beyond the Democratic primary electorate — and whether the movement he has built can withstand the massive spending machine that will be arrayed against him.