Belgium Braces for Extreme Drought as Heat Persists

Belgium is preparing for a period of extreme drought as temperatures rise and no significant rainfall is forecast, according to the Royal Meteorological Institute (IRM). The drought is expected to generalize across the entire country within about ten days, with the current situation already described as extremely dry in parts of the south.

The IRM’s drought index (SPI-1) as of August 8 shows the situation is near normal except for the south of the Sambre-Meuse valley, described as “extremely dry.” However, the institute’s drought forecast indicates that extreme drought will spread to the entire country within about ten days. Some regions have received only 1 mm of rain per square meter since the beginning of July, and temperatures are expected to reach 34-35 degrees Celsius with no real cooling in sight.

A Summer of Records

Belgium is experiencing its second driest sequence for the current reference period starting in 1991, according to Pascal Mormal, meteorologist at the IRM. “We are in second place for the driest sequences for the current reference period, which starts in 1991,” Mormal said. “We will certainly have the hottest summer in history, since temperatures will reach very high thresholds for August. We are talking about 34 and 35 degrees. There will be no real cooling.”

July 2026 was the 18th consecutive month with average temperatures above normal at Uccle station, an unprecedented series. July precipitation at Uccle reached only 10.6 mm, just 14 percent of the normal amount for the season. In Flanders, average precipitation was only 3.9 mm across all VMM monitoring sites, according to DHNet.

Climatologists note that this summer is not an anomaly but a preview of what lies ahead. “If we look at the past, indeed, we are in an exceptional month of July. If we look at the normal future, that is to say by 2050, 2070, we are in a completely normal month of July,” said Sebastien Doutreloup, climatologist at ULiege, in an interview with RTBF. “We are already in a summer of the future.”

Regional Responses Diverge

Across Belgium’s three regions, authorities are responding to the escalating crisis with varying degrees of urgency.

In Flanders, 80 percent of groundwater monitoring stations show low to very low levels, up from 50 percent in June. By August 2, 87 percent of stations showed low to very low absolute levels, and this proportion could exceed 90 percent if dry weather continues. Flanders has been under drought code orange since mid-July, with measures including bans on water extraction from non-navigable waterways and navigation restrictions.

The Walloon drought cell decided on August 6 to take no new measures despite a preoccupying situation, according to RTBF. However, fishing bans in running waters and kayak/leisure craft bans remain in effect across all Walloon sections. Nine Walloon municipalities have taken water restriction orders, including Bouillon, Rochefort, Saint-Hubert, and Vresse-sur-Semois.

The Brussels-Capital Region maintains a yellow alert level for drought, with the regional drought cell recommending postponing non-essential water uses such as car washing, sidewalk cleaning, lawn watering, and pool filling, as reported by RTBF.

Economic Impact on Industry and Shipping

The drought is not just an environmental concern—it is increasingly an economic one. The Meuse river flow is a critical concern: currently around 40 cubic meters per second, if it drops to 35, water scarcity on the Albert Canal will be triggered. If it drops to 30, the Maasafvoerverdrag treaty with the Netherlands takes effect, limiting how much water Flanders can extract.

“The Meuse flow is dropping very low,” said Patrick Willems, hydrologist at KU Leuven, in an interview with VRT NWS. “We still have all of August and September to get through, and if the drought lasts a long time, we could perhaps for the first time end up in this scenario.”

Businesses along the Albert Canal, which provides 40 percent of drinking water in Flanders, are already feeling the strain. Low-water surcharges for shipping have risen from 1 euro per ton to 8-19 euros per ton depending on the Rhine section. “The extra costs are no longer bearable,” said Kris Rademakers, head of the sand and gravel division at construction company Van Pelt. “It started at 1 euro per ton, but now we are already at 8 to 10 euros per ton for the Lower Rhine, and between 17 and 19 euros per ton for the Upper Rhine.”

Emile Vertongen, general director of Transportbeton De Beuckelaer, noted that “due to the low water level, skippers can only carry a third of the load. That also means higher costs.”

A European Crisis

The drought extends far beyond Belgium’s borders. The Rhine river in Germany has reached its lowest level since records began in 1880, dropping to 24 cm at Kaub, as reported by RTBF. This threatens European river freight and has caused shipping costs to soar. According to an ING report, the Rhine’s low level could shave 0.3 percent off German economic growth this year.

Hungary announced the unprecedented shutdown of its only nuclear power plant (Paks) due to low Danube water levels, a first in 44 years. Western Europe experienced its hottest start to summer ever recorded for the June-July period, with repeated heatwaves, generalized drought, and dramatic wildfires.

The Need for Adaptation

Experts warn that the current crisis is a signal of what is to come. “We have the impression of being ahead of all the most pessimistic scenarios,” Mormal said. “So yes, we will have to find solutions, but they are more of the order of adaptation.”

Aurore Degre, professor of hydrology and soil physics at Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, emphasizes that drought is fundamentally different from other climate events. “A flood is something that happens very quickly, with immediate consequences. Drought is an insidious phenomenon,” she said in an interview with RTBF. “We are arriving in a situation where everything is very tense. We are not yet in totally unprecedented situations, but we can clearly see that it is more and more frequent and that we are heading towards unprecedented situations.”

Degre calls for a more systemic approach to water management. “Today, we manage a moment of crisis with restrictions. We plead at the scientific level for a more systemic, more global and more anticipatory reflection,” she said. “Keeping water on the territory allows us to become more robust.”

What to Watch For

The coming weeks will be critical. The IRM forecasts extreme drought spreading across the entire country within ten days. The Meuse river flow will determine whether water scarcity measures are triggered on the Albert Canal, potentially affecting drinking water supply and industrial operations in Flanders.

As temperatures are expected to climb again toward 34-35 degrees, with a possible third heatwave, the pressure on water resources will only intensify. RTL reports that the mercury could reach 32-34 degrees by mid-week, raising the possibility of a third heatwave for summer 2026. Scientists like Doutreloup warn that this summer is not an exception but the new normal. “This deficit continues to widen more and more,” he said. “And it would not be surprising if we reached a record this year.”

For Belgium, the question is no longer whether extreme drought will arrive, but how prepared the country will be when it does.