Van Ypersele: Climate Prevention Costs Much Less Than Cure

Belgian climatologist Jean-Pascal van Ypersele has issued a stark warning as Belgium confronts one of its most severe climate crises on record: investing in climate prevention today is far more cost-effective than dealing with the consequences tomorrow. Speaking to RTBF, the former Vice-President of the IPCC argued that “it costs much less to prevent than to cure” as the country faces a new week of heatwave with temperatures expected to reach 34-35°C and an intensifying drought.

The comments come at a moment of acute climate stress for Belgium. Europe has just experienced its hottest June and July on record, with record temperatures and one of the driest periods of the past century. The Royal Meteorological Institute (IRM) has issued yellow heat alerts for the entire week, and its drought index indicates the situation will intensify from dry to very dry, trending toward extremely dry across the country within ten days.

A Record Heatwave Death Toll

The human cost of this summer’s extreme heat has been devastating. According to VRT NWS, the June-July heatwave caused approximately 2,000 excess deaths in Belgium, a 48% increase over normal mortality and the highest excess mortality recorded during a heatwave since records began in 2000. Wallonia was hardest hit with 77% excess mortality (1,059 deaths), followed by Brussels at 63% (188 deaths) and Flanders at 31% (768 deaths).

Van Ypersele has publicly expressed his anger over these deaths, telling RTL Info that it is “scandalous that more than 2,000 people died in recent weeks in Belgium because of the heatwaves, and there was no minute of silence in Parliament or in the words of the Prime Minister, nor in the Walloon or Flemish governments.” He wore a black tie during the interview as a mark of protest. “It’s as if these deaths didn’t exist, as if they were only statistics,” he said, noting that Belgium had 1,200 deaths in 2003 and more than 2,000 more than 20 years later. “Where are the effects of the preparedness and adaptation plans? Where are the spaces where people can take refuge when it’s too hot in schools and hospitals?”

Drought: A Slow-Moving Crisis

Beyond the immediate heatwave, Belgium is grappling with a drought that has been building for months. Van Ypersele explained that droughts often begin in winter, when groundwater reserves are normally replenished. “If precipitation hasn’t been sufficient during the winter, the aquifers and water reserves haven’t had the opportunity to reconstitute sufficiently,” he said. “And in spring, we start with a handicap of sorts.”

The data confirms the severity of the situation. July 2026 was exceptionally dry, with only 10.6 mm of rain falling at Uccle (14% of normal). According to RTBF, 80% of Flemish groundwater measurement stations showed low to very low levels as of early August, up from 50% in July and already exceeding the maximum recorded in 2025 (82%). With 80% of the Belgian population supplied by groundwater from aquifers, the stakes are considerable.

While van Ypersele noted that Belgium is “not yet quite in a critical situation,” he warned that the country is approaching one. “France is more exposed than Belgium because it is further south geographically,” he said. “We know that the Mediterranean basin is drying significantly because of climate disruption. We are a bit further from that situation. But we must remain very vigilant.”

Political Inaction and Scientific Warnings Ignored

Van Ypersele expressed deep frustration that scientific warnings have gone unheeded. “It’s a feeling of sadness and frustration that many of the messages from the scientific community haven’t been listened to with the seriousness they deserved,” he told RTBF. “By political leaders, by economic actors, and by many citizens. We realize now, when it’s right in front of us, that climate change is real, that it concerns everyone, and that it kills thousands of people.”

He pointed out that the changes being seen today were already flagged in the 1990s by the IPCC. Yet even the structures meant to listen to scientists are not in place. “One can be surprised that the scientific councils that were officially created in Belgium, both at the federal and Walloon levels, are still not operational,” he said. “They’ve been created on paper for years. So even the structures for listening to scientists are not in place.”

According to RTBF, the Walloon drought cell decided on August 6 to take no new measures despite the worrying situation, with nine Walloon municipalities having already imposed water restrictions. Fishing bans and kayak restrictions remain in place across most non-navigable waterways.

The Economics of Prevention

The core of van Ypersele’s message is economic: prevention is cheaper than cure. “It costs much less to prepare for a climate with greater extremes,” he said. “It costs much less to reduce emissions today than to wait until we reach unbearable temperatures.” He argued that Belgium must spend today to save tomorrow, even as the national budget faces constraints.

He called for urgent action on multiple fronts: adapting Belgian gardens to drier summers, reducing impermeable surfaces so water can penetrate the soil, installing rainwater collection systems, and prioritizing water for agriculture over non-essential uses like washing cars or watering lawns. “There are groups responsible for making decisions,” he said. “But at some point, we need to move to a higher level and prohibit, where it’s not already done, all non-essential use of water.”

Crucially, van Ypersele emphasized that adaptation alone is not enough. “We must also work on reducing greenhouse gas emissions at the same time,” he warned. “If we don’t make all possible efforts, we risk finding ourselves in the coming decades in a climate situation where adaptation will no longer be possible.”

What’s Next

As Belgium braces for another week of extreme heat and the drought intensifies, van Ypersele’s warning carries particular urgency. The IRM’s drought index projects the situation will worsen significantly over the next ten days, and with temperatures expected to reach 34-35°C, the pressure on water resources and public health will only increase.

Van Ypersele’s message is clear: the time for action is now. “We haven’t yet reacted as we should have, both in terms of adaptation, where we are very behind, and in terms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions,” he said. “It’s high time to wake up.”

As Belgium confronts the reality of a changing climate, the question is whether policymakers will heed the warnings before the costs of inaction become even more unbearable.