Wisconsin, Minnesota primaries test progressive vs. establishment divide

Progressive candidates in Wisconsin and Minnesota are making their final pushes ahead of Tuesday’s primaries, intensifying pressure on a Democratic establishment that has spent the year on its heels. The races represent the next battleground in the ongoing ideological struggle within the Democratic Party, coming just one week after progressive Abdul El-Sayed’s narrow victory over establishment-backed Rep. Haley Stevens in Michigan’s U.S. Senate primary.

According to AP News, El-Sayed’s victory has energized the left while stoking fears among Democratic Party leaders that the shift to the left, particularly in battleground states, will make it more difficult to win in November.

Wisconsin’s chaotic governor primary

In Wisconsin, democratic socialist state Rep. Francesca Hong is trying to win a four-way Democratic primary for governor, facing Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, who has been endorsed by outgoing Gov. Tony Evers. Evers announced he would not seek a third term in July 2025, triggering a wide-open race that has been marked by chaos and candidate turnover.

Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez dropped out in mid-July amid a campaign finance scandal, and former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes exited on July 29 amid reports that the state party had reviewed past allegations of inappropriate behavior against him. A law firm review found nothing actionable because the allegations were anonymous and unspecific, according to AP News.

A Marquette Law School poll conducted July 22-27 showed Hong leading with 38% support, followed by Barnes at 16% and Crowley at 7%, with 34% of voters undecided. When leaners are included, Hong’s support rises to 46%, according to NBC 26.

Republicans are actively spending to influence the Democratic primary. The Republican Governors Association has spent nearly $3.6 million through its Right Direction Wisconsin PAC on ads contrasting Hong with President Donald Trump and playing up her liberal policies, hoping she will be an easier matchup for GOP nominee U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany in November.

Trump has called Hong a communist, referencing a 2020 social media post by Hong calling for Thanksgiving to be canceled. Hong later reversed herself, saying Thanksgiving is her favorite holiday.

Evers and Crowley have been crisscrossing the state together in the final days before the primary. At a rally in Madison on Sunday night that drew hundreds, Evers projected confidence, saying Crowley was the best chance Democrats had to defeat Tiffany.

“We’re going to win this thing,” Evers said. “If Tom Tiffany wins in November that will be like electing Donald Trump as governor of the state of Wisconsin.”

Crowley, who re-entered the race on July 18 after briefly suspending his campaign, has positioned himself as the pragmatic alternative to Hong. “You can’t win this primary on ideology alone,” he told Time Magazine. “You have to be able to build a winning coalition to make sure that we can get over the hump come November and defeat the Republicans.”

Hong has called for a statewide moratorium on data centers, branding her policy “Control-Alt-Delete,” a popular position given Marquette polling showing 88% of Wisconsin Democrats believe data center costs outweigh benefits. Crowley has taken a more measured approach, arguing data centers should pay for the full energy costs and infrastructure upgrades they require.

More than 234,000 people had voted early in person or by mail as of Friday, according to Wisconsin Watch. Trump won Wisconsin in 2016 and 2024, and Republicans have held majorities in both chambers of the Legislature since 2011. Holding the governor’s office is key to Democrats’ effort to gain full control of state government for the first time in 16 years.

Minnesota Senate race shaped by immigration fallout

In neighboring Minnesota, moderate U.S. Rep. Angie Craig faces progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan in the Democratic (DFL) primary for U.S. Senate, a race being fought in the aftermath of Trump’s aggressive immigration enforcement surge in the state, particularly the killings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti by federal immigration officers in Minneapolis.

Flanagan won the DFL endorsement by acclamation on May 30, after Craig withdrew from the endorsement process, saying it does not reflect the full scope of the party and the purple state. The race has become one of the most expensive Minnesota has seen, with Flanagan claiming $12 million in outside spending from PACs supporting Craig, making it the most expensive primary in Minnesota history.

“Minnesotans have been inundated with television ads trying to redeem Congresswoman Angie Craig and attack my record,” Flanagan said at a press conference, according to Echo Press. “Those ads are being paid for by five super PACs and secretive ‘dark money’ groups that have already spent more than $12 million trying to sway the outcome of this election.”

Craig fired back: “I’ve run in five competitive races in Minnesota and in every one of them Super PACs have come after me. I never once called a press conference to cry about it.”

Flanagan has been endorsed by Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Tina Smith, Keith Ellison, and Ilhan Omar, while Craig has backing from Pete Buttigieg, Hakeem Jeffries, Nancy Pelosi, and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey. At a rally with Sanders in Minneapolis last month, Flanagan said she supports dismantling ICE and replacing it, while Craig has called that stance extreme and says it will push away independents.

“You know, as Peggy and Ilhan and Keith and Tina have said, they got the money, we have the people,” Sanders said at the rally, according to Alpha News. “That is in a nutshell of what this campaign is about.”

Whoever wins the primary will be the front-runner to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Tina Smith in November. Minnesota voters haven’t elected a Republican to a statewide office since 2006.

The Michigan precedent

El-Sayed’s narrow victory over Stevens in Michigan on August 4 demonstrated that progressive candidates can win in battleground states, but also showed how close these races can be. The race drew tens of millions in outside spending and became a proxy battle over the party’s future, according to NBC News.

“They spent an unprecedented amount of money to beat us,” El-Sayed said after his victory. “But it turns out the commercials are the part of the television show most people don’t want to watch.” The Guardian reported that El-Sayed overcame nearly $65 million in outside spending against him.

The Michigan result has both energized progressives and alarmed party leaders who fear that nominating candidates perceived as too far left could cost Democrats in the November midterms.

Broader implications

The ideological divide on display in Wisconsin and Minnesota extends beyond those two states. In Connecticut, moderate Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont faces a primary challenge from progressive state Rep. Josh Elliott, the first time in 50 years an incumbent Connecticut governor has faced a primary challenger, according to WFSB. Longtime Democratic U.S. Rep. John Larson, 78, is also facing a competitive four-person primary where his age and health have become major issues.

The American Prospect has characterized the Wisconsin race as “the Democratic establishment’s mess,” noting that party leaders have hopscotched from candidate to candidate in an effort to stop Hong.

As Tuesday’s primaries approach, the outcomes will provide a critical signal about the direction of the Democratic Party heading into the November midterms. The results in Wisconsin and Minnesota will show whether the progressive wave that swept Michigan can extend to other battleground states, or whether the establishment’s efforts to hold the line will prevail.

What to watch

Polls open at 7 a.m. CT on Tuesday in Wisconsin and Minnesota. Key questions include whether Hong can convert her polling lead into a decisive victory, whether Crowley’s late surge with Evers’ endorsement can close the gap, and whether Flanagan’s grassroots support can overcome Craig’s significant financial advantage in Minnesota.

The winners will immediately pivot to general election campaigns, with Wisconsin Democrats facing Trump-endorsed Tom Tiffany and Minnesota Democrats facing a Republican field that includes former sportscaster Michele Tafoya and GOP-endorsed Adam Schwarze.

As Crowley told Time Magazine, “The Democratic Party, we have been reacting and responding so much to Donald Trump, that he is defining us for us, and that we’ve been playing defense for so long that we’ve forgotten what it means to be on the offense.” Tuesday’s results will show whether Democrats are ready to go on offense — and in what direction.