Midwest Primaries Test Democratic Party’s Progressive Shift
Voters in Wisconsin and Minnesota headed to the polls Tuesday for primary elections that pit progressive candidates against establishment-backed Democrats, providing the latest test of the party’s ideological direction just 84 days before the November midterms. The contests follow progressive Abdul El-Sayed’s narrow victory in Michigan’s U.S. Senate primary last week, which energized the left while stoking fears among party leaders about alienating moderate swing voters.
A Battle for Wisconsin’s Governor’s Mansion
In Wisconsin, state Rep. Francesca Hong, a self-described democratic socialist and former restaurant owner from Madison, has emerged as the front-runner in a chaotic four-way Democratic primary for governor. Hong, who would become the state’s first woman governor and first Asian American governor, faces Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, the establishment-backed candidate endorsed by outgoing two-term Gov. Tony Evers, according to AP News.
The race has been marked by turmoil. Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez exited over campaign finance irregularities, and former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes dropped out on July 31 amid allegations of inappropriate behavior toward young adult women, which his campaign denied. Both remain on the ballot since they withdrew after the filing deadline.
Hong has maintained a steady lead in public polls, including a Marquette University Law School survey from late July. Her platform includes universal childcare, free school meals, and a one-year moratorium on new datacenter construction. But her past social media posts, including a 2020 call to “cancel Thanksgiving,” have drawn intense scrutiny from Republicans and raised electability concerns among some Democrats.
“The person who wins the most votes is the most electable,” Hong told The Guardian. “And we are fighting harder than any other campaign to win the most votes.”
Crowley, who briefly dropped out of the race in July before re-entering with Evers’ endorsement, has centered his campaign on electability. “When people try to call me the establishment, I look at that as a slur, particularly as an African American candidate,” Crowley told AP News. “I have never run for office to protect the establishment. I’ve always been here to protect people.”
The stakes extend well beyond the primary. Wisconsin is a key battleground state where the governor certifies presidential election results. Republican nominee Tom Tiffany, a Trump-endorsed congressman who voted against certifying the 2020 election results, awaits the Democratic winner. Democrats are also hoping to flip both chambers of the state legislature to achieve a governing trifecta for the first time since 2010.
Minnesota’s Senate Showdown
In Minnesota, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, a progressive, is competing against centrist U.S. Rep. Angie Craig for the Democratic nomination to replace retiring Sen. Tina Smith, according to ABC News. Flanagan has the backing of national progressives like Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, while Craig is supported by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
The race has been animated by immigration policy, with Flanagan calling for dismantling ICE and harshly criticizing Craig for voting for the Laken Riley Act, a Trump-backed immigration bill. Craig has said she regrets that vote. The issue of support for Israel has also divided the candidates, with Craig receiving backing from AIPAC in previous races while Flanagan opposes offensive weapons sales to Israel.
Minnesota became a flashpoint earlier this year when federal immigration agents killed two American citizens during Operation Metro Surge, a controversial enforcement campaign. No Republican has won a Senate election in Minnesota since 2002.
A Test of Trump’s Influence
The Minnesota Republican gubernatorial primary also tests President Donald Trump’s endorsement power. Trump has backed former MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell, who faces Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth and businessman Kendall Qualls, according to Reuters via The Detroit News. Lindell, a prominent election denier, said he believes he’s the only Republican who can win in November.
Meanwhile, Sen. Amy Klobuchar appears poised to clinch the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, with the winner facing a Republican field that has struggled amid the fallout from Operation Metro Surge.
What’s at Stake
The results will provide critical insight into whether the progressive wave that has swept Democratic primaries from New York to Denver can extend into battleground states. Five House Democratic incumbents have already lost their primaries to progressive challengers this year, and El-Sayed’s Michigan win marked the first time a progressive captured a competitive Senate primary in a swing state.
As AP News notes, Wisconsin’s 64-year streak of electing new governors from the opposite party of their immediate predecessor could favor Republicans in November, though voters nationwide tend to punish the president’s party in midterms. With control of the U.S. House also potentially hanging in the balance, Tuesday’s outcomes could shape the political landscape for years to come.