SC Republicans Vote in Primary to Replace Late Sen. Graham

South Carolina Republicans are casting ballots Tuesday in a special primary election to select their nominee to replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham on the November general election ballot. The contest comes just two months after Graham won the party’s nomination for a fifth term, and follows his sudden death from a tear in his aorta at his Washington, D.C. home on July 11, according to AP News.

Ten Republicans are competing in the special primary. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, the top two finishers will advance to a runoff on August 25. Polling suggests a runoff is the most likely outcome.

A Sister Steps Into the Spotlight

The most closely watched candidate is Darline Graham, Lindsey’s sister, who was appointed by Republican Gov. Henry McMaster on July 13 to fill the remainder of her brother’s term. Sworn in on July 14, she became the first woman to represent South Carolina in the U.S. Senate and the first senator to replace a sibling, according to Roll Call.

Darline Graham, who previously served as commissioner of the South Carolina Commission for the Blind, has President Donald Trump’s endorsement and the backing of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. But she faces significant skepticism from voters and Republican operatives alike over her lack of political experience and limited name recognition.

“I think it’s a very nice gesture for her to have the rest of his term to complete, but I’m not sure that she’s really qualified or ready to be elected to the Senate,” said Kathy Bustos of Mount Pleasant, a Republican voter, as reported by AP News via WSLS.

Graham has spent most of her time in Washington fulfilling her Senate duties rather than campaigning, a decision her supporters say demonstrates her commitment to the job. “She committed to not missing votes or not being there to push forward with those bills,” said Teresa Castrinos of Bluffton. “I feel like she’s putting South Carolina first.”

At a candidate event in Florence on Saturday, Graham acknowledged the toll of juggling Senate work and campaigning. “Yes, I have some notes. You know why? Because I haven’t slept in two days, so I’m going to keep my thoughts straight,” she said. “I wanted to stay there, and I wanted to get things done.”

A Crowded Field of Contenders

Graham faces a field that includes several of the state’s most prominent Republicans. U.S. Rep. Ralph Norman, a wealthy real estate developer and member of the House Freedom Caucus, entered the race fresh off an unsuccessful gubernatorial primary bid. He has positioned himself as the most reliable conservative in the contest, with endorsements from Sens. Rick Scott (R-FL) and Mike Lee (R-UT), as well as Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC).

“The America First agenda is: Secure the border, cut the taxes, make sure our military is peace through strength,” Norman said at a debate in Columbia.

U.S. Rep. Russell Fry, who represents the Myrtle Beach area, is also seeking the nomination. Fry, who ousted Rep. Tom Rice in 2022 with Trump’s support, has emphasized his experience and pointedly noted that he “didn’t inherit a record.” He has also attacked Graham over her previous role, accusing her of backing diversity, equity, and inclusion measures in her position at the Commission for the Blind, a charge she rejects.

Former Gov. Mark Sanford, who served two terms as governor and two separate stints in the U.S. House, is seeking another political comeback. His campaign has focused on the national debt as his signature issue. “Our country is at a financial tipping point,” he said at a candidate forum in Florence. “We’re walking our way toward the most predictable financial crisis in the history of man, and yet we’re not even really talking about it.”

Mark Lynch, a Greenville businessman who finished second to Lindsey Graham in the June primary with 29% of the vote, is also running again. Lynch, who calls himself an “America First” candidate, was branded a “lunatic” and a “disaster for the Republican Party” by Trump on social media during the June contest.

Trump’s Endorsement Under Scrutiny

The race is being closely watched as a test of Trump’s endorsement power in a state he carried with 58% of the vote in 2024. While Darline Graham has the president’s backing, Republican strategists say that alone may not be enough to secure a majority.

“The sense that this is going to go to a runoff seems pretty clear,” said Doug Heye, a Republican strategist. “What happens after that is anyone’s guess,” as reported by Jewish Insider.

Some GOP senators have expressed uncertainty about Graham’s political philosophy. “Many of us had never met her before,” one Republican senator told Jewish Insider. “All I knew was how much Lindsey adored her. But we don’t have a clue how Republican she is. I don’t have the faintest idea what her basic philosophies are.”

South Carolina’s fiercely independent political culture adds another layer of uncertainty. “It’s very important, but a lot of people are saying Donald Trump does not know South Carolina politics,” said Frank Tiller, chair of the Spartanburg County Republican Party. “South Carolina politics is different from a lot of places. Everybody here is fiercely independent,” as The Guardian reported.

What’s at Stake

About 3.4 million voters are registered in South Carolina, and voters do not register by party. Approximately 465,000 voters cast ballots in the June 9 Republican primary, and more than 61,000 votes were cast during the early voting period last week, according to AP Decision Notes via AOL.

Campaign ad spending by aligned super PACs has reached at least $4.2 million, according to AdImpact, with most of it supporting Fry and Graham. A super PAC that once supported Lindsey Graham said it would spend $900,000 backing his sister’s candidacy.

The winner of the primary will face Democratic nominee Dr. Annie Andrews, a Charleston pediatrician, in the November general election. No Democrat has won a U.S. Senate seat in South Carolina since 1998, and the Cook Political Report rates the general election as “Solid Republican.”

Polls close at 7 p.m. ET Tuesday. If no candidate clears 50%, the top two will face off in a runoff on August 25, with the eventual nominee carrying the GOP banner into November against Andrews.

The Road Ahead

For Darline Graham, the primary represents an extraordinary test of whether the goodwill surrounding her brother’s memory can translate into electoral support. For the broader Republican Party, it is a moment of reckoning about the limits of presidential endorsements in a state known for its independent streak.

As Republican strategist Doug Heye noted, “Not everything that happens in a Republican primary is about Donald Trump. His endorsement is always a boost, but that’s it.”

With a runoff likely and a general election battle ahead, the race to succeed Lindsey Graham is far from over. The Post and Courier reported that most surveys show a two-to-three way race to make the runoff between Graham, Fry, and Norman, with about one-fifth of the electorate undecided heading into Tuesday. Whatever the outcome, the winner will carry the weight of Lindsey Graham’s legacy into one of the most consequential Senate races in South Carolina history.