Belgian Gas Contract Prices Surge 20% on Winter Fears

The price of fixed gas contracts in Belgium has risen by 20% compared to last month, reigniting fears of a potential new energy crisis reminiscent of 2022. With European gas storage levels at their lowest seasonal point in years and the Middle East conflict continuing to disrupt LNG supplies, experts are warning that consumers could face significant price pressures this winter.

According to Het Laatste Nieuws, European gas reserves currently stand at approximately 59% capacity — nearly 20 percentage points lower than at the same time last year. Belgium’s situation is even more precarious, with the country’s only underground storage facility at Loenhout in Antwerp province filled to just 2% of its relatively small capacity.

A Troubling Parallel to 2022

Independent energy expert Alex Polfliet draws a direct comparison to the 2022 crisis that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “It’s been since the Russian invasion of Ukraine that our reserves stood this low at this time of year,” Polfliet told HLN. “And we know what price spikes that led to. Especially if we have a harsh winter and the conflict in Iran continues to escalate, we risk getting into trouble.”

The current situation is driven by a different geopolitical trigger. In March 2026, US military strikes against Iran escalated tensions in the Middle East, leading Iran to largely close the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 20% of global oil and gas shipments pass. As NOS reports, Iran has set six conditions for reopening the strait, including US troop withdrawal from the region, lifting all sanctions, and full compensation for war damages — conditions the US is unlikely to accept.

Storage Targets Under Pressure

Under EU regulations, member states are required to fill gas storage to at least 90% by November 1 each year. Due to the Middle East crisis, the EU has relaxed this target to 75% for 2026. However, even this lower target appears challenging given current storage levels.

Matthias Detremmerie of energy company Elindus explains: “Europe is being more flexible with market disruptions. Because of the Middle East crisis, the bar is set at 75 percent. But even that is not obvious given current low storage levels.”

Official data from the FPS Economy confirms the severity of the situation. On June 1, 2026, the Loenhout facility was only 22% filled, compared to 75.9% on June 1, 2025, and 71.6% on June 1, 2024. Belgium can only survive about 12 days on its own gas reserves, making it heavily dependent on continuous supply through its LNG import infrastructure, particularly the Zeebrugge terminal.

Price Surge and Consumer Impact

Data from Test-Aankoop shows that fixed gas contracts in Flanders cost on average 27% more in August compared to July, reaching 7.64 cEUR/kWh — the same level as in April. For a typical household consuming 17,000 kWh annually, this represents an increase of approximately 445 euros compared to pre-Middle East crisis levels.

The TTF gas price benchmark currently stands at around 57 EUR/MWh, nearly double what it was last winter. Kenneth Vansina of comparison site Mijnenergie.be warns that the coming weeks and months are critical. “Belgium must refill gas faster than planned in the coming months, and at potentially higher costs,” Vansina said. “Fortunately, there’s still time to boost the level, but not much can go wrong. A new heat wave would, for example, be very harmful.”

The Rush to Fixed Contracts

Following the US attacks on Iran in March, Belgian households rushed to switch from variable to fixed gas contracts to protect themselves from price volatility. In February, only 28% of households had fixed contracts; by May, this had risen to 38%. Over 100,000 Flemish households made the switch in March alone, as HLN reported.

However, this rush to fixed contracts has implications for the energy market. Detremmerie explains the pricing dynamics: “A fixed rate has a higher entry price than a variable rate. For August, the difference between the cheapest fixed and variable gas tariff on an annual basis is, for example, 119 euros. With that risk premium, the supplier insures itself against severe price fluctuations.”

For those considering switching now, Vansina advises caution. “Those who locked in a cheaper fixed rate earlier this year don’t need to do anything,” he said. “If your energy contract expires soon, you need to make a risk assessment. It seems better to me to go for a variable rate and wait and see.”

Goldman Sachs Warns of Double Energy Crisis

According to Frontnieuws, Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, has warned that European gas reserves are lagging behind seasonal averages in the run-up to winter. In a scenario where Middle East energy exports only gradually normalize through 2027, Dart estimates the TTF price for December 2026 would likely need to exceed 100 EUR/MWh — 110% above the bank’s base case of 50 EUR/MWh.

Dart also highlighted that Europe needs to accelerate gas injections to meet storage targets by late October. The LNG import shortfall in Northwest Europe for July was 2.1 million tons below expectations, leaving storage capacity at the end of the month only 43% filled versus the forecasted 45.5%.

Looking Ahead

Tim De Vil of Belgian gas network operator Fluxys offers some reassurance regarding Belgium’s specific situation. “In three months’ time, it’s possible to completely fill our relatively small capacity in Loenhout,” De Vil said. “That means the months of September, October and November suffice to be ready in time for winter.”

However, Polfliet views European supply as the larger concern. “We mainly need to look at Germany, the Netherlands, France and Italy,” he said. “The high market prices don’t encourage traders to replenish reserves. If there’s no progress, the consumer will feel it in their wallet.”

As Business AM noted in April, Belgium was the only Western European country that hadn’t started refilling its gas reserves after winter. While the country’s extensive LNG import infrastructure provides some flexibility, the combination of low storage levels, high market prices, and ongoing geopolitical instability creates significant uncertainty for the coming winter.

For consumers, experts recommend reviewing energy contracts carefully, considering home insulation improvements, and staying informed about market developments. The key question remains whether Europe can fill its reserves in time — and at what cost to households when winter arrives.