China Targets 60 Trillion Yuan Retail Sales by 2030 in First National Consumption Plan

China has unveiled its first-ever national-level special plan for expanding consumption, setting an ambitious target of approximately 60 trillion yuan (about $8.4 trillion) in total retail sales of consumer goods by 2030. The “15th Five-Year Plan for Expanding Consumption,” approved by the State Council on July 2 and publicly released on July 13, represents a roughly 10 trillion yuan increase over the 50.12 trillion yuan recorded in 2025, according to Xinhua News.

A Landmark Policy Shift

The plan marks a historic first: never before has China issued a dedicated national-level five-year plan focused exclusively on consumption. As the State Council’s official approval document states, the plan is designed to “better leverage consumption’s fundamental role in economic development” and establish long-term mechanisms for expanding resident consumption.

The timing is significant. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025), China’s consumer market demonstrated remarkable resilience despite a complex external environment. Total retail sales of consumer goods successively crossed the 40 trillion, 45 trillion, and 50 trillion yuan thresholds, growing by more than 10 trillion yuan over five years. Final consumption expenditure contributed an average of 58.8% to economic growth, up 10 percentage points from the previous five-year period, according to Xinhua’s analysis.

Six Pillars, 28 Tasks, Nine Special Columns

The plan deploys 28 key tasks across six strategic areas: promoting quality and affordable service consumption, expanding and upgrading commodity consumption, cultivating new consumption formats and scenarios, enhancing consumption capacity, optimizing the consumption environment, and improving institutional mechanisms. It also establishes nine special columns covering the silver economy, childcare, cultural tourism, health, and other priority sectors.

According to the State Council’s news release, the plan emphasizes implementing a special campaign to boost consumption, expanding service consumption, upgrading commodity consumption, and enriching business formats and scenarios.

Housing: A New Role in Consumption Strategy

Perhaps the most striking element of the plan is the inclusion of housing in the major durable consumer goods category for the first time, placed ahead of automobiles, home appliances, and home furnishings. The plan calls for deepening housing provident fund system reform and expanding its usage scope.

Zhao Yanjing, a professor at Xiamen University, argues that housing is not merely a single durable consumer good but “the core platform for all major consumption.” As 21st Century Business Herald reported, Zhao noted that automobiles, home appliances, home furnishings, decoration, and almost all durable consumption scenarios are attached to housing. He emphasized that “any policy subsidy can only transfer consumption subjects, not stimulate an increase in total social demand,” adding that housing is one of the few major durable consumer goods that appreciates the more you consume.

This marks a significant evolution from the previous “housing is for living, not for speculation” approach, signaling a shift toward stimulating consumption through existing housing stock renovation and quality improvement rather than new construction.

AI + Consumption: A First for National Planning

“Artificial Intelligence + Consumption” has been written into a national special consumption plan for the first time, designated as one of the nine special columns. The plan calls for increasing supply of AI-enabled phones, computers, smart wearables, intelligent robots, and desktop 3D printing devices.

Jiang Zhao, an associate researcher at the Institute of Circulation and Consumption under the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, told CCTV via China Economic Net that “artificial intelligence and other technologies are driving the iterative upgrading of commodity consumption. New consumption formats, models, and scenarios are constantly emerging, which are key driving forces for continuously creating increments.”

The Ministry of Commerce issued supporting implementation opinions in June 2026 with 17 measures across five aspects, as Southern Metropolis Daily reported.

From Policy-Driven to Institution-Driven

A fundamental shift underpins the new plan: moving from short-term policy stimulus to long-term institutional mechanisms. Chen Lifen, director of the Market Circulation Research Office at the Development Research Center of the State Council, explained that the plan “places more emphasis on enhancing consumption capacity, optimizing the consumption environment, and improving institutional mechanisms for promoting consumption.”

“By stabilizing employment, increasing income, and improving social security, we can consolidate the foundation of residents’ consumption capacity and continuously expand the scale of consumption,” Chen said, as reported by Guangming Daily. “Let residents’ consumption change from short-term stimulus to long-term, stable endogenous driving force.”

Wang Yun, deputy director of the Xi Jinping Economic Thought Research Center, emphasized that “employment and income are not only major livelihood issues, but also the foundation for expanding consumption.”

Service Consumption: The Next Growth Frontier

Service consumption is positioned as a core growth driver. In 2025, per capita service consumption expenditure accounted for 46.1% of per capita consumption expenditure. In the first half of 2026, service retail sales grew 5.3% year-on-year, outpacing commodity retail growth.

Chen Liping, a professor at Capital University of Economics and Business, noted that “service consumption as the core increment for future consumption growth still faces the problem of insufficient quality supply.” The plan addresses this by prioritizing service consumption quality improvement across seven areas: daily life services, elderly care, childcare, cultural tourism, health, sports, and education.

Trade-in Program: From Emergency Tool to Normalized Institution

The consumer goods trade-in program, which has proven remarkably effective, is being institutionalized. In 2025, trade-in related merchandise sales exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million consumers and contributing more than 1 percentage point to retail sales growth. In the first half of 2026, the program cumulatively drove 1.1 trillion yuan in related merchandise sales, benefiting 150 million people.

The 2026 government work report allocated 250 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for the program, distributed in four batches aligned with consumption peaks. Energy efficiency standards have also been tightened, with only Level 1 energy efficiency products now qualifying for subsidies, according to Southern Metropolis Daily’s analysis.

What’s Next

The plan’s success will depend on translating policy intent into measurable outcomes. Key indicators to watch include whether total retail sales maintain momentum toward the 60 trillion yuan target, how effectively service consumption expands its share of household spending, and whether housing market reforms successfully unlock consumption without reigniting speculation.

As the National Development and Reform Commission stated, China’s consumer market “has entered a critical period of quality improvement and scale expansion. The consumption foundation is solid and stable, consumption upgrading trends are evident, and consumption scenario innovation vitality is sufficient, providing solid support for the growth of the consumer market.”

The path from 50 trillion to 60 trillion yuan will require not just policy support but a genuine transformation in how Chinese households consume—from buying goods to buying experiences, from short-term stimulus to sustainable growth. The first national consumption plan provides the framework; whether it delivers the 10 trillion yuan increment will shape China’s economic trajectory through 2030.