CFTC Probes Mention Markets as Kalshi Pulls Sports Word Bets

Federal regulators have launched a review of so-called “mention markets” on prediction market sites, where bettors wager millions of dollars on the word choice of everyone from President Trump to soccer sportscasters, according to NPR, which cited two people with direct knowledge of the probe. In response, Kalshi, the largest prediction market in the U.S., has removed all mention markets from its betting offerings for sports as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission pursues its inquiry.

What Are Mention Markets?

Mention markets are a type of prediction market where traders bet on whether a specific person will say a particular word or phrase during a defined event. Examples include betting on whether a sportscaster will say “MVP,” “ankle,” or “redshirt” during a game broadcast, or whether President Trump will say “Hormuz” or “fake news” during a speech. These markets have grown increasingly popular as a way to speculate on the word choice of politicians, sportscasters, corporate executives, and other public figures.

Sports announcer mention markets generated more than $47 million in trading volume on Kalshi during the 2025-2026 NFL season, with volume reaching $3.55 million per game during the conference championships, according to DeFiRate. The markets have now been taken down “until further notice,” and it is unclear when or if Kalshi will bring them back.

The White House Connection

The stepped-up scrutiny from Washington comes after a high-profile incident involving betting on a speaker’s words reached the White House. Last month, regulators revealed that President Trump’s longtime teleprompter operator, Gabriel Perez, allegedly made nearly $100,000 on Kalshi by betting on what words the president would or would not utter during public appearances.

Kalshi said its internal surveillance tools flagged the suspiciously well-timed bets and reported them to federal authorities. The company froze about $90,000 of Perez’s profits and banned him from the site. Perez, who has worked for the president since 2016, is currently on unpaid administrative leave and in settlement talks with the CFTC. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt called the actions “a disgrace.”

“These mention markets are not popular across the political aisle,” said a person with knowledge of the probe who requested anonymity to discuss internal deliberations at the CFTC. “They are potentially very easy to manipulate, so the CFTC is taking a hard look at whether some of them make sense.”

Regulatory Framework Under Scrutiny

The vast majority of prediction markets are “self-certified,” meaning platforms can launch markets as long as they file paperwork with federal officials saying the market complies with rules for a swap, a type of financial derivative. One rule requires operators to affirm that markets cannot be “readily susceptible to manipulation.”

There is growing concern among Kalshi’s lawyers and federal regulators that betting on certain kinds of speaking events runs against this principle, since the very nature of some markets attracts possible manipulators. Inside Kalshi, employees have debated the usefulness of mention markets, with co-founder Luana Lopes Lara especially championing them as a way to pull people into prediction markets from avenues other than sports.

Polymarket, Kalshi’s main competitor, also offers mention markets but only on its overseas site, which is not regulated by the CFTC. Its smaller U.S. service does not list mention markets.

A Pattern of Manipulation Concerns

The probe into mention markets is part of a broader pattern of insider trading and manipulation concerns plaguing prediction markets. In April, federal prosecutors charged a U.S. Army special forces soldier for making $400,000 on Polymarket ahead of the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. The following month, a Google software engineer was charged with using confidential company information to make $1.2 million on Polymarket.

The DOJ also investigated former congressman George Santos for allegedly manipulating a Kalshi market by claiming he would attend Trump’s 2026 State of the Union address, then cashing out on a “no” trade when he skipped it.

Mention markets have also produced preposterous outcomes. During the live broadcast of the World Cup final on Fox, traders on Kalshi placed millions of dollars in bets on who would attend. When a Fox sportscaster mistook Matt Damon for Brad Pitt, several news organizations mistakenly reported Pitt was there. Kalshi’s market settled on Pitt attending, strictly following its contract rules — even though the actor was not actually there. People who bet that Pitt was not there collectively lost $287,866.

In October 2025, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong deliberately read several traded terms at the end of an earnings call, instantly determining the outcome of contracts carrying $80,933 in volume on Kalshi and roughly $4,000 on Polymarket. It demonstrated how one speaker could unilaterally determine the outcome of a mention market.

Industry Reaction and What Remains

Sports wagers account for more than 80% of the billions of dollars traded every week on Kalshi, so taking down mention markets for sporting events will significantly cut into the category. However, Kalshi continues to offer mention markets for political events, earnings calls, and live television newscasts.

The NFL had separately asked prediction market operators in March 2026 to stop offering easily manipulated or predetermined contracts, expressly including announcer mention markets. The league later urged the CFTC to “expressly prohibit the listing, trading, or clearing” of contract categories that are “particularly susceptible to manipulation.”

The removal of sports mention markets has drawn divided reactions. Financial-regulation lawyer Todd Phillips argued on X that eliminating sports mention contracts should be only the first step: “Kalshi needs to take them down across the board. There is zero hedging utility in these contracts.” Alex Kane, founder and CEO of Sporttrade, also supported a broader withdrawal. Others lamented the loss of a popular trading category, with some suggesting Polymarket could fill the void.

Broader Legal Challenges

Kalshi faces more than two dozen lawsuits from states and tribes over sports betting, including from New York, Washington, Ohio, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Massachusetts. New York AG Letitia James filed a lawsuit seeking approximately $36 billion in penalties. The CFTC has generally been Kalshi’s most vocal federal defender, invoking emergency authority to back Kalshi’s continued operations following New York’s lawsuit, arguing federal law preempts state gambling authority.

Despite these challenges, Kalshi is in advanced talks with Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management for a funding round at a $40 billion valuation and is eyeing a 2027 IPO, according to Prediction Authority.

What’s Next

The CFTC’s Innovation Advisory Committee holds its inaugural session on August 20, with prediction markets, mention markets, and the federal-state jurisdictional divide all on the agenda, as CryptoBriefing reported. The committee could shape how Washington regulates the next generation of financial products.

Whether the CFTC’s review results in formal guidance, restrictions, or clearance for mention markets will be an important signal for the broader prediction market industry. A formal prohibition would remove a category that had been growing rapidly and attracting a new generation of bettors. For now, Kalshi is managing the probe proactively, pulling sports mention markets before being ordered to do so — but the question of whether the distinction between sports and non-sports mentions holds remains open.

As the CFTC’s anonymous source put it, the agency is “taking a hard look at whether some of them make sense.” The answer could reshape the future of prediction markets in the United States.