Democratic Primary Turnout Surges Ahead of Midterms

Democratic voters are showing up for this year’s primaries in numbers not seen in decades, a pattern emerging across several states that has the party optimistic about its prospects in November when control of Congress will be at stake, according to AP News.

In Tuesday’s primary, Wisconsin Democrats cast nearly 800,000 ballots — their highest total for a midterm in more than 20 years. That followed 1.5 million Democratic voters in Michigan the week before, a midterm record for the state. The enthusiasm extends well beyond the Midwest, with Democratic turnout also surging earlier this year in Texas and Georgia, states that will have competitive Senate races in the fall.

A Historic Turnout Gap

The scale of the Democratic turnout advantage varied across states, but the pattern extended across much of this year’s competitive landscape for House, Senate and governor’s races. In Wisconsin, more than 790,000 people voted in the Democratic primary for governor, putting turnout at about 22% of registered voters. In Michigan, more than 1.5 million people voted in the Democratic Senate primary, accounting for a little more than 18% of registered voters — the state’s highest midterm turnout rate in a Democratic primary since at least 2002.

In Minnesota, Democratic primary turnout was on par with the 2018 midterm election, with both years marking the state’s highest Democratic primary turnout in a midterm year so far this century. Minnesota set a record with 1.1 million total voters, with about 700,000 on the Democratic side versus about 400,000 on the GOP side.

Other states that held elections earlier this year also saw significant Democratic primary turnout. In Georgia and Texas, the midterm turnout rate in the Democratic primaries was higher than it’s been since at least 2002. In Georgia, just over 1 million people voted in May in the Democratic governor’s race. In Texas, about 2.3 million people voted in March in the Democratic Senate primary, with Democrats outvoting Republicans 2,319,187 to 2,166,910.

According to pollster John Couvillon, who has been tracking the primary vote, Democratic turnout is up 41% over the 2022 cycle, while Republican turnout is down 3%, as Daily Kos reported. In Michigan, Democratic turnout was up 61% from 2022, while Republican turnout was down 15%. Even in Nebraska, Democratic primary turnout exceeded GOP turnout for the first time in more than 30 years.

Competitive Primaries Fueled the Surge

Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota all held marquee progressive-versus-moderate races in August that likely helped drive Democratic participation, according to AP News. In Michigan, spending in the Democratic Senate primary topped $80 million, making it one of the most expensive races of the year, according to AdImpact. Progressive Abdul El-Sayed narrowly defeated Rep. Haley Stevens after a campaign that drew national attention and energized younger voters and university communities.

The Michigan race also became the biggest test yet of AIPAC’s influence, with the pro-Israel group and its affiliates spending close to $30 million backing Stevens — their largest investment ever in a single race, as AP News reported. El-Sayed’s victory marked a significant progressive breakthrough in a premier swing state.

In Wisconsin, the governor’s primary was repeatedly reshaped as moderate Democrats left and reentered the race while democratic socialist Francesca Hong consolidated progressive support. Hong lost narrowly to Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, a more moderate candidate.

“The big news is that Democrats are getting huge turnouts,” said David Axelrod, who was a top adviser to Democratic President Barack Obama. “That’s been a steady story throughout this period.”

A Favorable Environment, But a Difficult Map

Democrats have reason to believe the primary enthusiasm could last. The president’s party has historically lost ground in midterm elections, and Trump enters the fall deeply unpopular amid economic unease, persistent inflation and an unpopular war with Iran. Some 33% of American adults approve of his job performance, according to the most recent polling by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs.

Most Americans say the war in Iran has not been worth fighting, and just 28% approve of how Trump is handling the conflict, according to a recent AP-NORC poll. The survey found that about two-thirds of U.S. adults say the war has not been worthwhile, including the vast majority of Democrats and independents, as well as about 37% of Republicans.

But a favorable national environment may not be enough. Democrats will need unusually strong turnout to overcome a congressional map that has become more favorable to Republicans. The number of competitive House races has shrunk considerably this year after Republican-controlled states redrew congressional districts in their favor at Trump’s urging, as AP News reported. The new lines are expected to produce a net benefit for Republicans, who hold a slim House majority.

Republicans control the Senate 53-47, with Democrats needing to pick up four seats to win the majority. Democrats will have to generate energy similar to Republicans two years ago, said Corwin Smidt, a political science professor at Michigan State University.

“If we have a national tide like we had in 2024, suddenly that opens the map a little more,” Smidt said.

Republicans Push Back

Republicans say they are responding with a major effort to turn out their voters in the fall. GOP leaders say they can energize voters by tapping into a major fundraising advantage over Democrats and sending Trump back out campaigning, including during a midterm convention in Texas next month, as AP News reported.

“Primary turnout doesn’t win general elections,” said Mike Marinella, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “House Republicans are entering November with the money, momentum, stronger candidates and a battle-tested operation built to turn out voters when it actually counts.”

Political scientists caution that primary turnout is an imperfect predictor of general election results. Corwin Smidt noted that the robust primary turnout has been a “good sign for Democrats,” but cautioned that it is “not a very solid predictor” of how voters will break in November.

“Voting is a lot of habit-forming,” he said.

Still, the enthusiasm gap is striking. As Newsweek reported, Grant Davis Reeher, professor of political science at Syracuse University, said the primary turnout on the Democratic side is “evidence for a relative surge in general Democratic electoral energy.” Costas Panagopoulos, professor of political science at Northeastern University, told Newsweek that Republicans should be “very concerned” about the numbers.

“The 2026 midterm election cycle will still be, to some extent, a referendum on Trump’s performance,” Panagopoulos said. “And there are few indications that Trump’s performance is viewed favorably by American voters.”

What’s Next

The races highlight how competitive primaries helped drive attention and also how the winning candidates have work to do to bring their party together for November. Both Wisconsin and Michigan Democrats held unity breakfasts in the days after the primaries.

Sen. Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent who backed El-Sayed and Minnesota Senate nominee Peggy Flanagan, said in an interview this week that he expects Democratic voters to bridge their differences for the general election.

“At the end of the day, when it comes to taking on Trump and creating a Democratic House and a Democratic Senate, there is going to be unity, because I think everybody knows how important that is,” he said.

With the midterms scheduled for November 3, the question now is whether the record primary turnout translates into general election victories. As Common Dreams reported earlier this year, CNN polling analyst Harry Enten said the surge in Texas Democratic primary turnout has big national implications.

“When we’re talking nationally, primary turnout matters,” Enten said. “The fact that more people are voting on the Democratic side in Texas at this point, that translates nationally, that would suggest Democrats [are] well on their way to winning the House.”

For now, Democrats are hopeful that the energy seen in the primaries is a harbinger of things to come. Republicans are confident their ground game and fundraising advantage will prevail when it counts. The voters will have the final say in November.