Democratic Primary Turnout Surges Ahead of November Midterms
Democratic voters are showing up for this year’s primaries in numbers not seen in decades, a pattern emerging across several states that has the party optimistic about its prospects in November when control of Congress will be at stake, according to AP News.
In Tuesday’s primary, Wisconsin Democrats cast nearly 800,000 ballots—their highest total for a midterm in more than 20 years. That followed 1.5 million Democratic voters in Michigan the week before, a midterm record for the state. The enthusiasm extends beyond the Midwest: Democratic turnout also surged earlier this year in Texas and Georgia, states that will have competitive Senate races in the fall.
Record-Breaking Numbers Across Multiple States
The scale of the Democratic turnout advantage varied across states, but the pattern extended across much of this year’s competitive landscape for House, Senate and governor’s races.
In Wisconsin, more than 790,000 people voted in the Democratic primary for governor, putting turnout at about 22% of registered voters. In Michigan, more than 1.5 million people voted in the Democratic Senate primary, accounting for a little over 18% of registered voters—the state’s highest midterm turnout rate in a Democratic primary since at least 2002. In Minnesota, Democratic primary turnout was on par with the 2018 midterm election, with both years marking the state’s highest Democratic primary turnout in a midterm year so far this century.
Georgia recorded just over 1 million voters in its May Democratic governor’s race, a little more than 13% of registered voters. Texas drew about 2.3 million voters in March for its Democratic Senate primary, representing slightly more than 12% of registered voters. Both states saw their highest Democratic midterm primary turnout rates since at least 2002.
By contrast, Republican primary turnout remained closer to historic norms. In Michigan, turnout for the Republican governor’s race was about 11%. In Wisconsin’s Republican primary for governor, it is expected to be about 14%.
Competitive Primaries Fueled the Surge
Competitive Democratic primaries have helped drive the turnout, giving the party’s voters more reason to participate. Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary was particularly expensive and closely watched, with spending topping $80 million, making it one of the most expensive races of the year so far, according to AdImpact.
Progressive Abdul El-Sayed, a former public health official, narrowly defeated Rep. Haley Stevens by 14,893 votes—just under 1 percentage point—out of more than 1.5 million ballots counted. The race drew national attention and energized younger voters and university communities, as AP News reported.
“In the words of Muhammad Ali, we shook up the world,” El-Sayed said early Wednesday, standing before the Spirit of Detroit, a landmark bronze statue in the city’s downtown.
In Wisconsin, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley narrowly defeated democratic socialist Francesca Hong by less than a percentage point in the governor’s primary. The race showcased Democrats’ struggle between the ideological left and center, with neither side able to claim a decisive victory, as AP News reported.
“The big news is that Democrats are getting huge turnouts,” said David Axelrod, who was a top adviser to Democratic President Barack Obama. “That’s been a steady story throughout this period.”
Can Enthusiasm Carry Into November?
The robust primary turnout has been a “good sign for Democrats,” said Corwin Smidt, a political science professor at Michigan State University. But he cautioned that it is “not a very solid predictor” of how voters will break in November.
Smidt pointed to several factors behind the numbers, including high turnout in recent elections, which has created a larger pool of regular voters. “Voting is a lot of habit-forming,” he said.
Republicans say they are responding with a major effort to turn out their voters in the fall. GOP leaders say they can energize voters by tapping into a major fundraising advantage over Democrats and sending Trump back out campaigning, including during a midterm convention in Texas next month.
“Primary turnout doesn’t win general elections,” said Mike Marinella, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “House Republicans are entering November with the money, momentum, stronger candidates and a battle-tested operation built to turn out voters when it actually counts.”
Ted Goodman, a spokesperson for the Michigan GOP, echoed that sentiment: “Republicans in Michigan will close the enthusiasm gap by highlighting the massive differences between our nominees and the extreme, out-of-touch politicians the Democrats have nominated.”
A Favorable Environment, But a Difficult Map
Democrats have reason to believe the primary enthusiasm could last. The president’s party has historically lost ground in midterm elections, and Trump enters the fall deeply unpopular amid economic unease and an unpopular war. Some 33% of American adults approve of his job performance, according to the most recent polling by The AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs.
Republicans currently hold a narrow 218-214 majority in the House and a 53-47 majority in the Senate. Democrats need a net gain of only 2 House seats to win the majority, and 4 Senate seats to take control of the upper chamber, as Andrew Busch noted in his analysis of the 2026 midterm landscape.
But a favorable national environment may not be enough. Democrats will need unusually strong turnout to overcome a congressional map that has become more favorable to Republicans. The number of competitive House races has shrunk considerably this year after Republican-controlled states redrew congressional districts in their favor at Trump’s urging. The new lines are expected to produce a net benefit for Republicans.
Additionally, the Senate map presents structural challenges. Most competitive Senate seats are in red or swing states rather than blue states. Only one Republican, Susan Collins in Maine, is defending a seat in a state Harris won, while two Democrats are defending seats in states Trump won.
“If we have a national tide like we had in 2024, suddenly that opens the map a little more,” Smidt said.
A Party in Transition
The 2026 primaries have also become a battleground between the party’s progressive left and moderate establishment wings. El-Sayed’s victory—backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez—represented a significant progressive breakthrough in a swing state. Sen. Sanders called it “the most extraordinary victory that I can think of in modern American politics.”
Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, said El-Sayed is “now the tip of the spear for the theory that shake-up-the-system economic fighters can win in swing states.” The November race is “put up or shut up time” for the progressive movement.
Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) said the victory “should be a wake-up call to the Washington Democratic establishment.”
Yet the narrow margins in both Michigan and Wisconsin suggest neither side has won the argument convincingly. Ten incumbent House members have lost primaries so far this year—including 7 Democrats and 3 Republicans—reflecting voter frustration with incumbents and a desire for generational change.
Sen. Bernie Sanders expressed confidence that Democrats would unify for the general election: “At the end of the day, when it comes to taking on Trump and creating a Democratic House and a Democratic Senate, there is going to be unity, because I think everybody knows how important that is.”
Curtis Hertel, chair of the Michigan Democratic Party, struck a similar note: “I don’t think that having a robust discussion is a bad thing. What I think is important is that we are united afterwards. We will unite together, and we will win this race, because we have to.”
What to Watch For
With the general election set for November 3, all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats will be on the ballot. The Midterm Project’s voter turnout tracker shows record primary participation across multiple states, and Democrats will need to sustain that energy through the fall.
Both parties face significant questions heading into November: Can Democrats translate primary enthusiasm into general election turnout? Can Republicans overcome Trump’s low approval ratings and historical midterm headwinds? And will the redistricting advantage prove decisive in a closely divided country?
The primary numbers point toward Democratic energy, but as the Financial Express noted, “whether that enthusiasm translates into November votes will depend on a much larger electorate, the competitiveness of individual races and the parties’ ability to mobilise voters who did not participate in the primaries.”
For now, the surge in Democratic primary turnout offers the party evidence that its voters are engaged. Whether it becomes a November verdict remains to be seen.