China-Russia Trade Hits $159.2B in Seven Months, Record Year Expected
China-Russia bilateral trade reached $159.24 billion in the first seven months of 2026, up 26.3% year-on-year, according to data released by China’s General Administration of Customs on August 7. The figure was announced by Chinese Ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui at the opening ceremony of the 4th Russia-China Sprout Forum in Kazan on August 17, where he expressed confidence that the full year could set a new record. Xinhua News reported that bilateral trade has now exceeded $200 billion for three consecutive years, with 2025 reaching $228.1 billion.
Trade Breakdown and Structure
The latest customs data reveals a balanced growth trajectory across both directions of trade. China’s exports to Russia grew 29.5% to $72.84 billion, while imports from Russia rose 23.7% to $86.4 billion, leaving Russia with a trade surplus of $13.56 billion. Russia maintains its position as China’s fifth-largest trading partner, trailing only the United States, South Korea, Vietnam, and Japan.
According to analysis published by the Heihe Free Trade Zone, energy remains the cornerstone of the bilateral relationship. Russia’s exports to China are dominated by oil, natural gas, coal, copper ore, timber, fuel, seafood, and agricultural products, while China supplies automobiles, electronic equipment, machinery, and various consumer goods. The trade structure is undergoing continuous optimization, with both governments actively promoting e-commerce and primary processing projects to raise the level of cooperation and added value.
The Sprout Forum: A Platform for Regional Cooperation
The 4th Russia-China Sprout Forum, running from August 16-19 in Kazan, capital of the Tatarstan Republic, has emerged as a critical platform for deepening inter-regional cooperation. The forum brings together more than 200 Chinese companies, 8 Chinese government delegations, and representatives from 60 Russian regions, with a business program covering 19 tracks and approximately 100 events across trade, logistics, finance, energy, technology, industry, agriculture, and healthcare.
Ambassador Zhang emphasized the forum’s role in advancing bilateral economic ties, noting that it has become an important platform for promoting cooperation and playing a positive role in deepening China-Russia economic and trade relations and inter-regional cooperation. Russia-China Forum reported that the cooperation network has expanded to 68 Russian federal subjects and 28 Chinese administrative divisions over three years.
Alexander Babakov, Deputy Chairman of the Russian State Duma, highlighted the forum’s unique value in transforming political trust into concrete cooperation projects. “Russia-China regional cooperation holds enormous potential,” he said. “I believe this forum will inject new strong momentum into Russia-China cooperation and become an important platform for generating new enterprises, new investments, and new jobs.”
Tatarstan: A Model of Regional Engagement
Tatarstan has positioned itself as one of the most active Russian regions in China cooperation. Trade between the republic and China grew more than 12-fold in a decade, from $264.3 million to $3.35 billion by the end of 2025, making China its largest foreign trade partner. The republic maintains cooperation agreements with Shandong, Hunan, Sichuan, Anhui, Heilongjiang, Zhejiang, and Jiangxi provinces, as well as Chongqing municipality, and signed a memorandum of understanding with Hubei Province in 2025.
Ambassador Zhang has praised Tatarstan as a leading regional center for Russia-China cooperation, citing its advantageous geographic position, developed logistics system, strong industrial base, and expertise in petrochemicals, automotive manufacturing, and information technology. Russia-China Forum reported that these factors make the republic particularly attractive to Chinese enterprises.
Sergei Katyrin, Chairman of the Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, explained the logic behind region-level engagement: “China’s economy has a very distinct regional structure. Each province has its own industrial expertise, trade promotion agencies, business community, industrial parks, and logistics capabilities. Therefore, agreements at the region-province level can move cooperation faster from the abstract Chinese market to specific partners, specific platforms, and specific supply chains.”
Currency Settlement and Financial Integration
A notable feature of the deepening economic relationship is the shift toward local currency settlement. Russian Ambassador to China Igor Morgulov confirmed in June that nearly all trade between the two countries is now settled in rubles and RMB, reducing dependence on the US dollar. He noted that despite the complex external environment, trade has significantly exceeded the $200 billion target for three consecutive years, with growth exceeding 20% this year.
The new version of the investment protection agreement, which took effect earlier this year, is expected to further facilitate cooperation. Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesperson He Yadong stated in May that the next step is to promote the quality and upgrading of cooperation.
Infrastructure and Emerging Cooperation Areas
Beyond traditional trade, the two countries are advancing ambitious infrastructure projects that promise to reshape cross-border connectivity. The world’s first international cable car connecting Blagoveshchensk and Heihe is scheduled for completion by the end of 2026, with launch expected in May 2027. A second railway track on the Zabaikalsk-Manzhouli section is expected to add approximately 11 million tonnes of annual capacity by 2030.
At this year’s forum, RFI reported on new cooperation initiatives involving drones and autonomous trucks between the two countries’ Far Eastern regions. A proposed “drone bridge” would connect Blagoveshchensk and Heihe, capable of transporting high-value goods weighing up to 50 kilograms, while autonomous truck testing is planned for 2027 with full automation potentially by 2028.
Outlook: A Record Year Ahead
The momentum in bilateral trade shows no signs of slowing. First-quarter trade reached $61.2 billion (up 14.7%), rising to $85.2 billion by April (up 19.7%), $109.5 billion by May (up 22.9%), and $134.1 billion by the end of the first half. The 26.3% growth in the January-July period represents the strongest acceleration yet this year.
As Russia’s Pivot to Asia noted in its comprehensive analysis, the partnership is transitioning from a focus purely on trade scale to higher quality, efficiency, and high value-added manufacturing and technology integration. With the Sprout Forum providing a platform for regional governments, businesses, and universities to forge new connections, and with infrastructure projects expanding capacity, all indicators point toward a record-breaking year for China-Russia economic cooperation.
Ambassador Zhang captured the prevailing sentiment when he expressed confidence that the full year is expected to set a new record high. With continued growth in energy trade, expanding industrial complementarity, and new cooperation frontiers in digital economy, green development, and autonomous transportation, the bilateral relationship appears well-positioned for sustained expansion in the years ahead.