Florida, Alaska, Wyoming Primaries Set Stage for Midterms

Voters across four states headed to the polls Tuesday for primary elections that will help shape the fiercely contested 2026 midterms, with the Florida gubernatorial race drawing the most attention as the state seeks a successor to term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis. Primaries in Alaska, Wyoming and California’s 14th Congressional District will also help determine control of Congress, where Republicans hold a narrow edge, and offer a referendum on President Donald Trump’s second term, according to AP News.

Florida: A Defining Moment for Both Parties

Eleven Republicans and six Democrats are competing for their parties’ gubernatorial nominations in Florida, where a Democrat last won the governorship more than 30 years ago. The state has about 13.5 million registered voters, with Republicans holding a 42% to 30% registration advantage over Democrats, according to AP Decision Notes.

U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds has emerged as the clear frontrunner in the Republican primary, backed by Trump’s endorsement and an overwhelming financial advantage. Donalds, who would become Florida’s first Black governor if elected, has raised more than $111 million for his campaign, according to WLRN. His closest rivals include Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, a close DeSantis ally running to protect the governor’s legacy, former state House Speaker Paul Renner, and former investment firm CEO James Fishback.

On the Democratic side, former Republican-turned-Democrat David Jolly leads the field, having named former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham as his running mate. Jolly, who joined the Democratic Party in 2025 after leaving the GOP in 2018, has a commanding fundraising lead over the rest of the Democratic field, according to Local10.

Florida voters are also choosing candidates to complete the remainder of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s unexpired U.S. Senate term. Republican incumbent Sen. Ashley Moody, appointed by DeSantis in January 2025, faces minimal opposition for the GOP nomination. The Democratic primary pits progressive state Rep. Angie Nixon against retired Army Lt. Col. Alex Vindman, a former National Security Council aide who was a key witness in Trump’s first impeachment.

The state is also holding its first congressional primaries under a redrawn district map designed to boost Republican candidates. The new boundaries essentially eliminate four congressional districts currently or most recently represented by Democrats, including a key matchup in South Florida’s new 20th District between U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, seeking a 12th term, and former U.S. Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, according to CBS News Miami.

Alaska: A Pivotal Senate Race

Alaska’s all-party, top-four primary for U.S. Senate is expected to play a pivotal role in determining which party controls the Senate next year. Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan faces a strong challenge from Democratic former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola, who would become the first Alaska Native senator if elected in November, according to AP Decision Notes for Alaska.

Peltola has raised about $18.5 million compared with Sullivan’s $11.7 million, though Sullivan maintains a cash-on-hand advantage. An Alaska Survey Research poll from March found Peltola ahead of Sullivan among primary voters, 46.4% to 40.9%.

The race features an unusual subplot: a second candidate named Dan Sullivan — Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a retired teacher — is on the ballot after Republicans failed to block him. The challenger will appear as “Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.” without party affiliation, while the incumbent will be listed as “Dan S. Sullivan” with the labels “Registered Republican” and “Incumbent.” Trump has warned Alaskans to vote for the “real” Dan Sullivan, according to Newsweek.

Alaska’s open primary system, approved by voters in 2020, places all candidates on a single ballot with the top four advancing to a ranked-choice general election. The state has about 602,000 registered voters, with undeclared and nonpartisan voters making up roughly 63% of the electorate.

Beyond the Senate race, 17 candidates are running to replace term-limited Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy, including former Gov. Bill Walker as an independent. Republican Rep. Nick Begich also faces a crowded field for Alaska’s only House seat, with independent commercial fisherman Bill Hill as his main challenger.

Wyoming: A Rare Wholesale Turnover

For the first time in 32 years, Wyoming has open seats for governor, U.S. Senate and U.S. House at the same time, according to AP Decision Notes for Wyoming. The departures of Gov. Mark Gordon and U.S. Sen. Cynthia Lummis, along with U.S. Rep. Harriet Hageman’s decision to run for the Senate, have set off a scramble across the ballot in one of the most reliably Republican states in the country.

Hageman, who rose to national prominence after defeating former Rep. Liz Cheney in the 2022 Republican primary, is the overwhelming favorite in the Senate race. She has raised about $2.4 million — nearly 10 times that of her closest competitor — and has Trump’s endorsement. The winner will likely face former Democratic state Rep. James Byrd in November.

In the governor’s race, four Republicans are competing, with state Superintendent Megan Degenfelder holding Trump’s endorsement and roughly even financial footing with state Sen. Eric Barlow. The U.S. House primary features nine active candidates in what’s shaping up to be the most expensive contest on Tuesday’s ballot, with businessman Steve Friess, who loaned $3 million to his campaign, and Secretary of State Chuck Gray among the leading contenders.

Wyoming’s Republican Party is divided between a hard-right bloc that controls the state House and more traditional conservatives in the Senate, making these primaries a test of the party’s direction in the Cowboy State, according to Al Jazeera.

California: A Special Election with National Implications

In California’s 14th Congressional District, voters are choosing a replacement for Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell, who resigned in April amid sexual assault allegations he denies. State Sen. Aisha Wahab, a progressive, faces BART Board President Melissa Hernandez, a moderate, in a race that reflects the broader Democratic divide.

AIPAC’s super PAC has spent more than $2 million against Wahab and backing Hernandez, echoing a pattern of outside spending seen in other Democratic primaries this year. The seat is guaranteed to remain under Democratic control, and the two candidates will face off again in November for the full two-year term.

What to Watch Next

The winners of Tuesday’s primaries will advance to the November general election, just 77 days away. With Republicans holding a narrow edge in the House and a 53-47 majority in the Senate, the outcomes in Alaska and Florida could prove decisive in determining which party controls Congress next year. The results will also offer a clear signal of Trump’s influence over Republican voters and whether Democrats can make inroads in states that have drifted firmly into GOP territory.