EU Still Massively Importing Russian Gas Despite Exit Plan

In July 2026, every single shipment of liquefied natural gas (LNG) arriving in Belgium came from Russia — a stark illustration of Europe’s continued dependence on Russian energy despite a formal EU exit plan. According to Bloomberg calculations cited by Belgian public broadcaster RTBF, the war in the Middle East disrupted supplies from Qatar and other producers, leaving Russia as the only viable source for Belgium’s LNG imports that month.

The situation is not unique to Belgium. Across the European Union, imports of Russian gas have been rising since the start of 2026, even as Brussels has committed to a complete phase-out by 2027. “The European Union has never imported as much Russian gas, with a record in January 2026, and even a 17% increase between March and May 2026,” said David Rigoulet-Roze, a researcher at the French Institute for Strategic Analysis, in an interview with RTBF.

The Contradiction at the Heart of European Energy Policy

The EU has pursued a deliberate strategy of reducing dependence on Russian energy since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The European Commission reports that Russian gas imports fell from 152 billion cubic meters in 2021 to 36 billion cubic meters in 2025 — a dramatic reduction. Yet the trend has reversed in recent months.

New analysis by the German environmental NGO Urgewald shows that between January and June 2026, 136 of 140 cargoes shipped from Russia’s Yamal LNG project — 97% of total exports — were delivered to EU ports. The EU paid an estimated €5.96 billion ($6.82 billion) for these volumes, receiving a Yamal LNG cargo roughly every 1.3 days and averaging 55,089 tonnes per day. EU-bound volumes rose 16% year-on-year, while deliveries to Asia collapsed by 84%.

“In the fifth year of the war against Ukraine, the EU is still helping keep Russia’s Arctic LNG sector afloat,” said Sebastian Roetters, Sanctions Campaigner at Urgewald. “Yamal LNG depends on a small, specialised fleet, European ports and European services to keep exports flowing. Europe continues to provide all three.”

The data, confirmed by TradeWinds, shows France, Belgium and Spain as the largest importers. The Zeebrugge terminal in Belgium received 37 cargoes — more than any other EU port.

Why Imports Are Rising Despite Sanctions

Several factors explain the paradox. First, long-term contracts signed before the war must still be honoured. “There are two types of supply,” explained Bertrand Candelon, professor of international finance at UCLouvain. “There are long contracts where you can fix the price. And we had those with the Russians. So we’re obliged to honour them.”

Second, the Middle East war has fundamentally reshaped global LNG markets. Approximately 20% of global LNG transited through the Strait of Hormuz before the conflict, and Qatari infrastructure has been bombed and partially damaged. “A large part of the LNG that Europe had available no longer comes out,” said Rigoulet-Roze. “It came from Qatar, and with the obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz, that poses a problem.”

This supply squeeze has driven up prices and forced European buyers to seek alternatives — including increased purchases from Russia. Belgium’s total LNG imports fell by more than 40% in July compared to the same month last year, yet the country still imported about 0.4 million metric tons of Russian LNG, according to RBC-Ukraine citing Bloomberg data.

The EU’s Exit Plan: A Phased Approach

Despite the continued imports, the EU approved a phased exit plan in January 2026. Short-term contracts concluded after June 17, 2025 are already banned. From January 1, 2027, all Russian LNG imports will be prohibited regardless of contract length or date. Pipeline gas imports will be banned by September or November 2027, depending on EU stock levels, as reported by Euronews.

Slovakia and Hungary will receive exceptions due to their lack of sea access — in 2023, Russian gas accounted for 63.9% and 78.1% of their imports respectively. The agreement was hailed by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen as “the dawn of a new era, that of Europe’s total energy independence from Russia,” according to RTBF.

Belgian Energy Minister Mathieu Bihet (MR) confirmed Belgium’s commitment to the timeline: “Belgium has been a driver of the adoption of measures to phase out Russian gas and fully applies European sanctions. An exit timeline has indeed been decided.”

Signs of Change on the Horizon

There are early indications that the tide may be turning. According to La Libre/Belga, only one LNG delivery is scheduled at Zeebrugge in August 2026 — from the United States — as Russia redirects cargoes to Asia via the now-accessible Northern Sea Route. Five deliveries are planned for September, with none or only one expected from Russia.

This shift reflects Russia’s own strategic calculations. With the Arctic sea route now navigable, Moscow can reach Asian markets more directly, potentially reducing its reliance on European buyers ahead of the 2027 ban.

The Structural Weakness: Trading One Dependency for Another

Experts warn that the fundamental problem extends beyond Russia. Europe has limited domestic fossil fuel production and must import from external suppliers. The diversification away from Russia risks simply replacing one dependency with another — particularly on the United States.

“It’s estimated that by 2028, 80% of European gas would come from the United States,” said Rigoulet-Roze. “In reality, the problem remains the same. It’s trading one dependency for another, an American dependency for a Russian and/or Gulf dependency. There is a real weakness that stems from Europe’s structural dependence on its energy suppliers.”

Candelon echoes this concern: “We’re going to reduce the possibility of diversification. We had 5 or 6 major LNG producers, now we’ll be down to 3. Russia, we can’t anymore. Qatar, for now, is blocked. We’ll be forced to take the others, who will have an important advantage, because we’re not the only ones looking for other suppliers. Prices will continue to rise.”

“Mechanically, it feeds the Russian war machine against Ukraine,” Rigoulet-Roze added. “It’s estimated that with the increase in purchases, that would be nearly 60 million euros per day for Russia. The problem is that we can’t do otherwise.”

What to Watch For

The coming months will test whether the EU can follow through on its commitments. Key questions include: Can European countries secure sufficient alternative supplies before the January 2027 LNG ban? Will the Middle East conflict resolve in time to restore Qatari exports? And can Europe avoid simply shifting from Russian dependence to American dependence?

The EU’s record purchases of Russian LNG — 9.89 million tonnes worth about €6 billion in the first half of 2026, according to the Financial Times via SFG Media — underscore the scale of the challenge. As the January 2027 deadline approaches, the gap between stated policy and on-the-ground reality remains the defining feature of Europe’s energy transition.