Trump’s Midterm Strategy Faces Test in Nebraska Swing District
President Donald Trump is making himself the centerpiece of the 2026 midterm campaign, but that strategy may not resonate in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District — a rare swing seat in an otherwise solidly Republican state. The open-seat race there pits Republican Omaha City Councilmember Brinker Harding against Democratic activist Denise Powell, with Libertarian Eric Foreman also on the ballot.
“Do they still like Trump in Nebraska? I think so,” the president said during a recent event in Washington, according to AP News. Given that Nebraska has backed Republicans for president three times and hasn’t supported a Democrat for the White House since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, the answer may seem obvious.
But in Nebraska’s largest city, it’s an open question that could decide one of the country’s most-watched congressional races.
The ‘Blue Dot’ Phenomenon
The district encompasses an increasingly Democratic-leaning Omaha metro area of more than 1 million residents and its more conservative suburbs. It is one of just eight districts nationwide that elected Republicans in House races while supporting Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris over Trump in 2024.
Nebraska splits its presidential electoral votes, and the 2nd District’s delegate has gone to Democrats three out of five times since 2008 — a “blue dot” in an otherwise Republican red state, as AP News reported. But a Democrat has won the House seat just once since 1994.
Retiring Rep. Don Bacon (R) has held the seat since 2017. Bacon sometimes defied the White House in his final term — he criticized Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, tried to curb Trump’s ability to impose tariffs, and was the only House Republican who opposed renaming the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America.
Trump’s National Strategy
Trump is organizing a Republican midterm convention in Dallas on Sept. 9-10 — the first-ever national convention ahead of midterm elections. The RNC has also rebranded its “Young Guns” program to “MAGA Majority” in deference to Trump’s movement.
The strategy comes against a backdrop of significant headwinds. Trump’s overall approval rating stands at 33%, according to a July AP-NORC poll, and only 28% of U.S. adults approve of how he is handling Iran. About two-thirds say the war with Iran, which began Feb. 28, has not been worthwhile — including about 37% of Republicans, as AP News reported.
The Iran war has dragged on far longer than Trump originally predicted, with 18 U.S. service members killed. Gas prices have risen above $4 per gallon on average, and oil topped $100 a barrel. About 72% of U.S. adults say it’s important to prevent domestic oil and gas prices from rising.
Trump also suffered his worst night for endorsements of the 2026 cycle on Aug. 18, when three Republican candidates he supported lost primaries in Florida and Wyoming, as Newsweek reported.
The Local Race
Harding plays up Trump’s primary endorsement, and House Speaker Mike Johnson and Majority Leader Steve Scalise have campaigned for him. Harding said he has “the full confidence of, not only the White House, but leadership in the Congress.”
Johnson visited Omaha in July to back Harding, calling the race “a contrast election between common sense and crazy,” according to KNOP News.
Powell, who won the Democratic primary in May by about 1,080 votes, has drawn support from potential 2028 presidential candidates. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg campaigned with her in South Omaha in July, saying, “We’ve got to have leaders who are ready to deliver a future that is better — not just better than now, but better than before,” as The Reader reported.
Powell talks about how Medicare cuts have increased anxiety about affordability. She also points to Trump and his family’s business dealings as an example of “the choices that they have made while people on the ground are struggling.”
“Even the ones who aren’t necessarily anti-Trump understand the need for checks and balances,” Powell said.
Analysis and Outlook
Pollsmax forecasts Powell has a 70.5% chance of winning, with a projected margin of D+2.6. A Wedgewood Polls survey from July showed Powell at 48% and Harding at 46%, according to the Pollsmax forecast.
Mary Jane Truemper, who heads the Nebraska Republican Party, said Nebraskans like to be wooed “person-to-person, rather than a national entity coming in.”
“Is that going to be the deciding factor?” she asked of Trump. “I don’t know.”
The race in Nebraska’s 2nd District will test whether Trump’s national brand can overcome local dynamics and voter concerns about the economy and the Iran war. With the midterm elections just months away, the outcome could offer an early signal about the president’s political strength heading into the final two years of his term.
As Powell put it: “People are worse off than they were before.”