China’s Outbound Direct Investment Rises 2.8% in Jan-July
China’s outbound direct investment across all industries reached 6,845.1 billion yuan (US$995.3 billion) in the first seven months of 2026, up 2.8% year-on-year, according to data released by the Ministry of Commerce and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on August 25. In dollar terms, the growth was even stronger at 7.3%, reflecting continued international expansion by Chinese enterprises despite persistent global economic headwinds.
Context: A Moderating Growth Trajectory
The latest figures continue a trend of gradual moderation in ODI growth throughout 2026. After expanding 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, growth slowed to 3% for the January-May period before easing further to 2.8% for January-July. The data, published by Xinhua News, shows Chinese domestic investors made non-financial direct investments in 7,742 overseas enterprises across 148 countries and regions, totaling 5,284.3 billion yuan.
Notably, while total ODI including financial-sector investment grew, non-financial ODI actually declined 12.9% in yuan terms (768.4 billion US dollars, down 9.1%), according to CCTV News. This divergence suggests growth is being driven primarily by financial-sector investment, while real-economy enterprises have become more cautious.
Belt and Road Remains the Priority Direction
The Belt and Road Initiative continues to anchor China’s outbound investment strategy. During January-July 2026, Chinese enterprises made 1,519.9 billion yuan in non-financial direct investment in BRI partner countries. Contracted projects in these countries generated completed turnover of 6,032.8 billion yuan, up 10.8% (877.2 billion US dollars, up 15.6%), as reported by the Economic Information Daily.
Policy Framework Strengthens
Behind these figures lies a rapidly evolving policy environment designed to support Chinese enterprises going global. The State Council’s Regulations on Outbound Investment took effect on July 1, 2026, establishing the first unified administrative framework for outbound investment services, management, and protection. Additionally, the People’s Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange recently extended cross-border capital pool operations for multinational companies nationwide, responding to growing demand for centralized capital management.
Expert Analysis: Open Cooperation in Uncertain Times
Zhou Mi, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation under MOFCOM, emphasized the significance of the growth data. “The year-on-year growth in outbound direct investment shows that Chinese enterprises are actively seizing opportunities from economic globalization and exploring effective cooperation methods with all parties through outbound investment,” Zhou said. “Against the backdrop of severe global turbulence and numerous uncertainties, this open and cooperative stance is particularly valuable.”
Zhou also highlighted the evolving composition of Chinese ODI. “Currently, China’s outbound direct investment is still mainly concentrated in the traditional manufacturing sector,” he noted. “In the future, it is expected to show a more diversified development trend, with investment momentum in new technologies, new industries, and new materials expected to further strengthen.”
Cautious Real-Economy Investors
Industry insiders point to persistent global geopolitical risks and overseas market uncertainties as factors making real-economy enterprises more cautious in their outbound direct investment, with many preferring to focus on existing operations and deep localization. As facilitation policies continue to take effect, China’s outbound investment is expected to concentrate on key areas including industrial chain and supply chain cooperation, green and low-carbon development, and the digital economy.
What to Watch
The moderation in ODI growth rates throughout 2026 suggests Chinese enterprises are becoming more selective in their overseas investments, prioritizing quality and strategic alignment over volume. With the new regulatory framework now in place and cross-border capital management policies expanding nationwide, the policy environment is increasingly supportive. The key question is whether easing global conditions and continued policy facilitation can sustain growth momentum in the second half of the year, particularly as Chinese companies diversify into new technology, new industry, and new materials sectors.