Iran War’s Uneven Toll: Investors Win, Consumers Pay

Six months after the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran, the conflict’s economic impact on America has been strikingly uneven. While stock market investors have enjoyed significant gains, everyday consumers are shouldering the burden through higher prices at the pump, increased airfares, and climbing costs across the energy and agriculture sectors. The divide between Wall Street and Main Street has never been more pronounced.

According to AP News, the direst predictions of economic catastrophe have not materialized, but no corner of the world’s economy has been left untouched. “So far, the global economy has pulled off the financial equivalent of a ‘Mission Impossible’ scene,” said Michael Ashley Schulman, an investment strategist at Cerity Partners.

Wall Street’s Resilience

Despite initial market turmoil when the war began on February 28, the stock market has staged a remarkable recovery. Since bottoming out in late March, the Dow has gained nearly 19%, the S&P 500 is up almost 22%, and the Nasdaq has surged 27%. If those gains hold through year-end, all three indexes would post their fourth consecutive year of gains.

The International Monetary Fund, in its July outlook, described the global economy as being “shaped by two major forces, pushing in opposite directions” — the war straining growth while enthusiasm over artificial intelligence offsets the drag. As Al Jazeera reported, the IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.0%, a modest slowdown largely offset by AI-driven demand.

The Consumer Burden

The war’s most visible economic consequence has been its impact on oil. With tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz slowed to a crawl, Brent crude climbed from a prewar close of about $72 a barrel to as high as nearly $120. Although prices have eased, they remain about 20% above prewar levels. The International Energy Agency called the disruption the “largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market,” as Wikipedia’s economic impact analysis documents.

Americans have spent an additional $71.5 billion on gas since the war began, according to the Joint Economic Committee Democrats, as Truthout reported. That translates to an average of over $600 per household.

The aviation sector has been hit particularly hard. Jet fuel is expected to cost, on average, 70% more than in 2025, according to the International Air Transport Association. Airlines have raised ticket costs, hiked baggage fees, and slapped on fuel surcharges while slashing flights. Lufthansa Group cut 20,000 short-haul flights, and Spirit Airlines ceased operations entirely on May 2, citing rising fuel costs.

“The likelihood that fuel surcharges are going to be rolled back and airfares are going to be brought down is very low over the next few months,” said Brett House, a Columbia University economist. “There is less choice for consumers and less competition between airlines, and therefore, less pressure to rein in fare increases.”

The Clean Energy Silver Lining

The war has paradoxically accelerated the global clean energy transition. Electric vehicle sales hit records in several regions — Singapore saw 110% year-over-year growth, New Zealand 180%, and Colombia 300%. Worldwide, EVs are projected to account for 29% of total vehicle sales in 2026, up from 25% in 2025, according to the International Energy Agency’s Global EV Outlook.

Scott Lehmann, a supply chain expert at Sphera, counts 26 countries and regions that have announced clean energy and electrification measures in response to the war. “The crisis is forcing investment faster than any policy framework would have,” he said. As Yale Climate Connections noted, the United States is the notable exception, with EV sales slumping after federal tax credits were eliminated.

The Hunger Crisis

For the world’s poorest, the war’s costs are existential. With the Gulf not just a leader in global oil production but also of fertilizer, the conflict has dealt a devastating blow to farmers. Fertilizer prices peaked in April at 44% higher than before the war, according to the World Bank’s price index.

The UN World Food Programme has warned that tens of millions could be pushed into hunger. Acting executive director Carl Skau testified that the “suffocation of fertilizer exports” had hit Asia and Africa hard. “An oil tanker anchored in the Strait of Hormuz can mean one less meal a day for a child in Sudan,” Skau said. “When oil prices go up, so does the price of flour, rice and vegetables.”

The Trump Family’s Gains

The war has cost U.S. taxpayers an estimated $113.3 billion through June 16, according to the Iran War Cost Tracker. Yet the family of the man at the center of it all has been among the beneficiaries.

Military contractor Powerus, about to be taken public by Eric and Donald Trump Jr., won an Air Force contract worth up to $90 million for drone interceptors. The private equity firm 1789 Capital Management, which Don Jr. joined days after his father’s reelection, owns stakes in several military contractors profiting from the war — including Anduril, SpaceX, and Firehawk Defense.

The president’s own investment portfolio has scooped up shares of Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, and Northrop Grumman. Democrats released a report saying Trump’s oil and gas stock holdings have soared by as much as $15.5 million.

On August 27, House Judiciary Committee Ranking Member Jamie Raskin launched an investigation into 1789 Capital, alleging possible fraud and insider trading. As The Guardian reported, Raskin wrote that it is “now impossible to believe that your firm’s astonishing growth and success are due to anything other than insider political influence and thoroughgoing corruption.” The House Judiciary Committee Democrats detailed how the firm’s assets ballooned from roughly $150 million to over $3 billion after Trump Jr. joined.

A White House spokeswoman, Anna Kelly, insisted “there are no conflicts of interest” and that “President Trump only acts in the best interests of the American public.”

Political Implications

Even as Trump’s personal finances have benefited, his political fortunes are another question. The conflict has been deeply unpopular, with his approval rating for handling Iran dipping to 33%. Republican strategists worry the war could weigh heavily on the party’s prospects in November’s midterm elections, as CNBC reported on the market and political fallout.

What’s Next

As the war enters its seventh month, the economic divide shows no signs of narrowing. Iran and Oman recently agreed on a temporary Hormuz shipping corridor, but the strait remains largely closed to commercial traffic. Al Jazeera’s analysis of the conflict’s impact on Gulf energy infrastructure suggests prolonged disruption is likely to continue supporting higher energy prices.

Meanwhile, Iran’s leaders have acknowledged the mounting economic damage, with President Masoud Pezeshkian saying foreign trade has shrunk by nearly 35% under sanctions and the naval blockade, as Al Jazeera reported.

The question now is whether the widening gap between those who profit from the war and those who pay for it becomes a defining political issue — or simply another chapter in the conflict’s unfolding economic story. What remains clear is that six months in, the war’s economic toll has been anything but evenly distributed.