Kalshi Bans George Santos for Life Over Insider Trading

The online prediction market platform Kalshi has permanently banned former U.S. Rep. George Santos after concluding the ex-Republican congressman likely engaged in insider trading when he profited by betting against his own attendance at the State of the Union address, according to AP News.

The lifetime ban, effective last Friday, is the first permanent ban in the company’s history, Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana confirmed. The platform also imposed a $71,356 penalty on Santos — multiples of the $17,839.57 he made from his wagers — citing his “lack of cooperation” with its investigation.

The State of the Union Betting Scheme

Santos placed a series of large bets between February 2 and February 25, 2026, on whether he would attend President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address. According to Kalshi’s Compliance Department, Santos was prohibited from trading in the market because he was capable of influencing the outcome — he could simply decide whether to attend or not.

Despite this, Santos made public statements about his intention to attend the event in an effort to influence the price of the contracts. Wired reported that the day before the address, Santos posted on X, “I’m going to be there for the State of Union in the gallery, guys.” During the speech, he sent a follow-up noting he was actually at an airport watching the address on television. “FML,” he wrote.

“The Compliance Department found that Santos made these statements with the intent to manipulate the price of the Yes or No contracts that he intended to purchase,” Kalshi said in its disciplinary notice, as reported by NBC News. “Ultimately, these statements did in fact manipulate the price of said contracts.”

On the eve of Trump’s speech, Kalshi had put the odds of Santos attending at close to 75%.

Federal Investigation and Settlement

Santos’s suspicious trades were flagged by Kalshi’s enforcement team and referred to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In July, Santos agreed to pay $35,000 to settle the federal investigation. The CFTC found that Santos had “made a series of material misrepresentations and omissions” in his social media posts about whether he would attend the State of the Union while placing bets on his own attendance. The settlement included disgorgement of $17,500 in profits plus a $17,500 fine, and imposed a three-year trading ban on Santos from prediction market platforms.

Santos’s attorney, Joseph Murray, said at the time that his client settled to “put this matter behind him” and had done so “without admitting the Commission’s allegations, findings or conclusions.”

The federal probe also prompted rival prediction platform Polymarket to end its paid relationship with Santos in June, as AP News reported.

Santos Responds Defiantly

Santos mocked the company in a post on X on Monday, writing, “Hey @Kalshi thanks for the lifetime ban from your gambling platform. Let’s see how much longer you guys are around for.” He also called Kalshi “an unserious company” and labeled the ban “frivolous nonsense,” according to CBS News.

On his podcast in March, Santos had dismissed complaints about his attendance, saying, “I guess people lost money. Some people made unexpected money. That’s to show you how fragile these markets are.”

A Turbulent Political and Legal History

Santos, who won office as a Republican from New York’s 3rd District after fabricating a biography as a wealthy Wall Street dealmaker, was expelled from the House in December 2023 — the first member expelled in more than 20 years. He pleaded guilty to wire fraud and identity theft in 2024 and was sentenced to 87 months in prison, as CNBC reported.

After serving just 84 days, President Trump commuted his sentence in October 2025, calling Santos a “rogue” but saying he should get credit for voting Republican.

Broader Enforcement Push

Kalshi also announced four other enforcement cases on Monday, involving political candidates who traded on contracts related to their own campaigns. Among them was Laurie Buckhout, a Republican congressional candidate in North Carolina’s battleground 1st District, who received a $2,589 fine and three-year ban. “I bet on myself. Literally. It was a dumb mistake,” Buckhout said in a statement. “Safe to say my career as a Kalshi trader was short-lived.”

The enforcement actions come amid growing scrutiny of prediction markets. Kalshi launched more than 200 insider trading investigations last year and has already eclipsed that figure in the first quarter of 2026, according to Good Morning America. The Republican-led House Oversight Committee has also announced a probe into the “growing pattern of insider trading activity on prediction market platforms.”

What’s Next

Santos can appeal Kalshi’s decision to the CFTC, but the lifetime ban represents a significant escalation in the platform’s enforcement efforts. As prediction markets continue to grow in popularity, the Santos case highlights the challenges of policing markets where participants can directly influence outcomes. Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana said Santos can expect “legal action” if he does not pay the penalty.