Turning Point Builds Ground Game for 2028 GOP Primary
DES MOINES, Iowa — Alongside the familiar sounds of roosters crowing and thrill seekers screaming on rides at the Iowa State Fair, there was a chorus of boos from Turning Point Action activists heckling Democratic politicians making their way through the crowds. Videos of the confrontations drew hundreds of thousands of views on social media — a burst of attention for a conservative youth organization charting its next chapter after last year’s assassination of its founder, Charlie Kirk.
But the true test of Turning Point Action’s clout was unfolding inside the exhibition center, where staff members were registering voters, handing out buttons and signing people up for social events. “Building the foundation for 2028,” read one of the flyers.
Early-State Infrastructure Takes Shape
While Democrats have removed Iowa from the top of their presidential primary calendar, the state’s caucuses will still kick off Republicans’ next nominating process. Turning Point Action is positioning itself to shape that contest, a reminder that preparations for the next White House campaign are already in motion even though no candidates have announced and the midterm elections aren’t over yet.
The organization wants at least one staffer in each of Iowa’s 99 counties to mobilize the conservative grassroots. “It is important to us to see high voter participation in the caucuses,” said Tyler Bowyer, the organization’s chief operating officer. “That’s your measuring stick.”
In addition to Iowa, Turning Point Action has grown its footprint in New Hampshire and Nevada for this year’s midterms — early primary states that could also benefit the organization’s 2028 efforts.
The likely beneficiary of this initiative would be Vice President JD Vance, who is widely expected to launch a campaign. Turning Point leaders, including Erika Kirk — Charlie’s widow and the organization’s CEO — have been clear they’re ready to throw their support behind Vance if he jumps in.
A Surprise Victory Signals Growing Clout
Turning Point Action’s Iowa expansion gained momentum after the organization endorsed businessman Zach Lahn in the state’s gubernatorial primary. Lahn’s surprise victory over Trump-endorsed Rep. Randy Feenstra in June demonstrated the organization’s ability to influence outcomes in the state. Following that win, Turning Point Action said it would double its manpower in Iowa before the midterms.
“Nobody thought this could be done. We were outspent, opposed by the establishment, told to wait our turn,” Lahn said on election night. “Well, tonight the people of Iowa had something to say about that — that we’re not going to wait anymore!”
More than a dozen Republican officials, activists, lawmakers and strategists in Iowa said Turning Point’s imprint in the state was visible but still something of a mystery, and some privately question whether the organization’s impact will match the buzz it generates online. But others have eagerly welcomed the organization to the state.
“A year ago, Iowa was virgin — no Turning Point. And many of us complained,” said Kelley Koch, a former Dallas County Republican chair, speaking to a gathering of MAGA Nation Iowa, the grassroots organization she founded. “Finally, Turning Point Action listened to us.”
The Vance Connection
When asked about his 2028 ambitions, Vance demurs and says he’s focused on his current job, but he’s expected to be an immediate Republican frontrunner if he decides to seek the presidency. Bowyer said Turning Point Action wants to be supportive without “being pushy.”
“We haven’t officially endorsed as an organization yet because no one’s announced, right? But, you know, depending on who announces and when we endorse — yeah, of course we’ll be out campaigning on behalf of who we endorse,” he said.
Bowyer said Vance can bridge the gap between the Make America Great Again movement, which Trump launched more than a decade ago, and younger voters who were attracted to Charlie Kirk’s brand of conservatism. “It’s a natural fit,” he said.
Bowyer acknowledged that Turning Point Action’s growing infrastructure in early primary states could cause some agitation on the right if it is seen as throwing its weight behind one presidential candidate. But, he said, “that’s not why we do it,” describing the goal as boosting turnout in the Iowa caucuses to send a strong signal heading into the general election.
Other potential candidates include Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has said he wouldn’t run against Vance. Sen. Ted Cruz has not announced a campaign, but he has already made several visits to Iowa this year and said in a recent podcast that “It’s no secret that I want to be president.”
A Post-Kirk Transition
Turning Point is navigating its first major political cycle since Charlie Kirk’s assassination in September 2025. Erika Kirk was unanimously elected as CEO and Chair of the Board of Turning Point USA, positioning herself as a steward of her late husband’s legacy. At AmericaFest in December 2025, she told a cheering crowd: “We are going to get my husband’s friend JD Vance elected for 48 in the most resounding way possible.”
The organization’s Iowa activities represent a key test of whether it can remain a political force without its charismatic founder. Young activists regularly post on social media from county fairs and Republican committee meetings, uploading selfies on sidewalks or stoops to show days spent knocking on doors.
“We’re newer in Iowa,” a Des Moines-based senior field staffer, Kylie Kloewer, told a visitor who stopped by Turning Point Action’s booth at the state fair.
Those who walked up to the table could sign up for social clubs that host events, including barbecues and volleyball games. “Any involvement is success,” said Kelsey Newberry, who is based in the organization’s Phoenix headquarters and was helping at the Iowa State Fair. “You’re bringing people together as a community. The more you talk to your neighbors, the better.”
“And even if they’re not ready to get activated now,” Newberry added, “being around like-minded people might encourage them in the future.”
Iowa’s Political Crossroads
Although Iowa has shifted rightward over the last decade, it’s considered a political battleground in this year’s midterm elections because of Trump’s sagging approval ratings, declining access to healthcare and tariff-driven turmoil in the agricultural industry. Sen. Joni Ernst and Gov. Kim Reynolds, both Republicans, are retiring, creating fiercely contested races to replace them.
The spotlight on Iowa this year is an opportunity for Turning Point Action to demonstrate its clout. Jimmy Centers, a Des Moines-based Republican political consultant, said of Vance’s standing in the state: “I certainly think, as of right now, Vice President Vance would probably be a straw-poll winner of Iowa Republicans for 2028. But I don’t think anyone is saying, ‘We won’t consider anybody else.’”
Kim Schmett, a longtime Iowa GOP activist, cautioned that the presidential cycle starts “deceptively slow.” “It’s awfully, awfully early in the process,” he said.
GOP strategist Alex Conant, who worked on Rubio’s 2016 presidential campaign, noted that potential Republican candidates “are treading very lightly.” “I think Republicans are going to be very reluctant to get in Trump’s way until Trump gives the green light for the campaign to start,” Conant said.
What to Watch For
As the 2026 midterms approach, Turning Point Action’s ability to translate its digital-age organizing into real electoral success in Iowa remains unproven. The organization’s early-state infrastructure could give whichever candidate it endorses — most likely Vance — a substantial organizational advantage when the 2028 nominating contest begins in earnest.
With no candidates formally announced and Trump’s own ambitions for a third term still a subject of speculation, the Republican primary landscape remains fluid. But Turning Point’s methodical expansion across Iowa’s 99 counties signals that the groundwork for the next presidential cycle is already being laid — one county fair and voter registration drive at a time.