Trump’s MAGA Inc. Drops $10M into Tight Texas Senate Race
President Donald Trump’s political machine has entered the Texas Senate race in force. MAGA Inc., the super PAC linked to the president, disclosed a $10 million television and digital advertising buy in the contest between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, according to a Federal Election Commission filing reported by Fox News. The expenditure marks the group’s first major outlay of the 2026 general election cycle and underscores how critical the Lone Star State has become to Republican hopes of holding the Senate.
The $10 million will be split evenly: $5 million for positive advertising boosting Paxton and $5 million for negative messaging targeting Talarico, as The Texas Tribune reported. The 30-second spots focus on tax policy, contrasting Paxton’s proposals for doubling the child tax credit and offering a $50,000 deduction for first-time homebuyers against what the ads describe as Talarico’s record of supporting higher taxes.
A Race That Defies Texas History
The investment comes as Paxton and Talarico remain locked in one of the most competitive Senate contests Texas has seen in decades. Both the Cook Political Report and Fox News have rated the race a toss-up, an extraordinary designation for a state where Democrats have not won a statewide race in over three decades. A Fox News poll released in July showed Talarico leading Paxton 51% to 48%, within the survey’s margin of error.
Talarico, a 37-year-old former middle school teacher and Presbyterian seminarian from Round Rock, has built a formidable campaign powered by small-dollar donations. His campaign has raised approximately $72 million since launching, compared to about $16.8 million for Paxton, according to The Texas Tribune’s reporting on fundraising. In the second quarter alone, Talarico raised over $30 million — more than triple Paxton’s haul.
Why Trump’s Money Matters
The fundraising disparity has made outside spending critical for Paxton. MAGA Inc.’s entry into the race follows weeks of public pressure from Senate Republican leaders urging the president to deploy his resources in Texas.
“We have to win this race…we’re going to need all the hands on deck,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said on Fox News, as NBC News reported. “The president and his team and their resources need to be brought to bear on Texas because it’s not one that we can lose if we’re going to hang on to a Republican majority.”
Trump told reporters Friday that he has close to $1 billion under his control across various PACs and nonprofits, and plans to spend $400-500 million on midterm races, as CBS News reported. MAGA Inc. had over $400 million in its coffers as of July 31.
“High Tax Talarico wants to take money out of Texans’ pockets,” MAGA Inc. spokesperson Alex Pfeiffer said. “MAGA Inc. is going to ensure Texas knows about Talarico’s radical policies and elects Ken Paxton to the U.S. Senate.”
The Battle for Texas Airwaves
Paxton’s campaign has spent just $264,000 on general election advertising, mostly on digital platforms, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact. By contrast, Talarico’s campaign has spent $40.1 million on advertising. Democrats have spent $41.7 million total versus Republicans’ $24.3 million on the Texas Senate race.
The MAGA Inc. buy is not the only outside money flowing into the race. Elon Musk’s America PAC has spent approximately $1.4 million against Talarico, as The Texas Tribune reported. The Lone Star Liberty PAC, the main pro-Paxton outside group, has spent $18.9 million on the general election.
By November, ad spending on this race could set a Texas record. Sen. Ted Cruz has estimated spending could reach $200 million, approaching the $202 million tracked in his own 2024 race against Colin Allred.
The Stakes for Both Parties
The Texas Senate race is one of roughly a dozen contests that will determine whether Republicans hold their 53-47 Senate majority. But the stakes extend beyond simple math. A Democratic victory in Texas would represent a seismic shift in American politics, breaking a Republican stranglehold on the state that has lasted more than three decades.
For Republicans, the race also carries the weight of Paxton’s controversial history. The attorney general was impeached by the Republican-led Texas House in 2023 on charges including bribery and abuse of public trust, though he was acquitted by the state Senate. His personal life has also drawn scrutiny, with his wife filing for divorce in 2025.
Republican pollster Daron Shaw noted the challenges Paxton faces in unifying the party after his bitter primary defeat of incumbent Sen. John Cornyn. “Although Paxton dominated Cornyn in the GOP primary, that bruising contest left scars,” Shaw said. “He has considerable work to do with non-MAGA Republicans and independents.”
What to Watch Next
Trump is scheduled to headline the first-ever Republican midterm convention in Dallas on September 9-10, where he is expected to campaign directly for Paxton. With early voting beginning October 19 and Election Day on November 3, the $10 million injection from MAGA Inc. is likely just the beginning of the president’s involvement in what has become one of the most closely watched races in the country.
Talarico’s campaign dismissed the super PAC spending as the work of “billionaire-backed dark money groups” who are “scared of the people-powered movement we’re building.” Campaign spokesperson JT Ennis pushed back on the ads’ claims about Talarico’s tax record, noting he “was proud to vote for the largest property tax cut in Texas history.”
The question now is whether Trump’s financial firepower can close the gap between Paxton’s limited campaign resources and Talarico’s grassroots fundraising machine — or whether even $10 million won’t be enough to overcome the political headwinds facing Republicans in a year when economic anxiety dominates voter concerns.