California’s Shadow Looms Over Newsom’s 2028 Bid

SUMMERVILLE, S.C. — Gavin Newsom’s secret is no secret here in South Carolina. Vendors sold “Gavin 2028” buttons outside his events this past week as the California governor trekked across the state that will host Democrats’ first presidential primary. His allies, state party officials, and supporters openly discussed his national ambitions. But as Newsom stakes his claim as an early front-runner in the party’s 2028 shadow primary, he has barely begun to address what may be his biggest political liability — his home state of California, a symbol of modern-day liberalism that voters across the political spectrum love to hate.

According to AP News, the 58-year-old governor completed a four-day “Take It Back” tour through Alabama, South Carolina, and North Carolina from September 2-5, holding eight public events across South Carolina alone. The state was selected by the Democratic National Committee on August 15 to host the first Democratic presidential primary on January 22, 2028, making it the opening test for any White House hopeful.

The California Conundrum

Newsom’s team acknowledges that “California derangement syndrome” is real — the widespread perception that California represents an extreme form of liberalism that alienates voters nationwide. In the nearly half-century since Ronald Reagan won the presidency in 1980, California has produced a long list of failed White House contenders, including Gov. Pete Wilson, Gov. Jerry Brown, businessman Tom Steyer, and most recently Vice President Kamala Harris.

Vera DeVito, a 78-year-old Democrat who attended one of Newsom’s events in Summerville, captured the sentiment succinctly: “It’s going to be hard for him to appeal to the whole country. Everybody thinks California is different — especially in the South. They’re not crazy about California.”

Yet Newsom is not hiding his interest in the presidency. In an interview with the Associated Press, he left open the possibility of announcing his decision before the end of the year. “It’s the right question. Honestly, I don’t know,” Newsom said. “I think this thing’s happening. I mean, you already feel it, right? There are folks out here — they’re saying they’re already starting to interview state directors. So this thing is going to happen very, very quickly.”

A Fighter Against Trump

Newsom’s message throughout the tour was overwhelmingly focused on attacking President Donald Trump and rallying Democrats to fight back. “We cannot do business as usual. We need to fight fire with fire,” Newsom told roughly 150 people at a Lexington, S.C. community center on September 4. “We’ve got to meet this moment and recognize what we’re up against. We’re up against an invasive species in the name of Donald Trump.”

At every stop, Newsom highlighted Trump’s private business dealings, his decision to dispatch the National Guard to Los Angeles, federal immigration enforcement actions, and Trump’s push to limit mail voting. “Donald Trump is ruthless. He’s ruthless. He’s going to try to steal this election,” Newsom charged. “He is not screwing around. Neither can we.”

The approach resonated with many voters. Kirk Bovill, a 65-year-old semi-retired actor and former Los Angeles resident now living in Summerville, said, “The one thing he does very well: He doesn’t have a problem standing up to Trump. He’s not intimidated.”

Building a Ground Game in the First Primary State

This was Newsom’s third trip to South Carolina during the 2026 midterm season and his seventh visit to the South in three years, according to South Carolina Public Radio. His political operation has raised $15.2 million through his small-dollar fundraising network for Democratic candidates, state parties, and organizing efforts nationally — including more than $390,000 directed to the South Carolina Democratic Party.

Christale Spain, chair of the South Carolina Democratic Party, said Newsom helped raise $370,000 for Democrats over the past year. More importantly, she noted, he has made stops in some of the reddest parts of the state. “He is talking to Democrats all across the state — and we’re not talking about going to Greenville or going to Columbia or going to Charleston,” Spain said. “No, we’ve been on the road, going to every rural county that we can find because we want the Democratic Party, the Democrats in those counties, to know that we are alive and well.”

Elizabeth Ashford, a Democratic political strategist in Los Angeles, told the NY Post that the groundwork matters: “It’s incredibly important to have boots on the ground with communities in this pivotal first primary state. It’s going to make all the difference if he decides to run, having those relationships and ground game in place.”

Republican Pushback

Republicans were quick to attack Newsom’s California connection. SCGOP State Chairman Drew McKissick said in a statement reported by Spectrum News: “Gavin Newsom can come to South Carolina as often as he likes, but changing the scenery doesn’t change his failed, liberal record. Californians have been leaving a state defined by high costs, high taxes, and liberal government, while people and businesses continue moving to South Carolina. He’s welcome to come and try the BBQ, but voters here aren’t buying what he’s selling.”

Attorney General Alan Wilson, a Republican gubernatorial candidate, wrote on X: “Don’t California my South Carolina.” Protesters outside Newsom’s events waved signs reading “Wrong Coast” and “Clean Up Your State First.”

The Record and the Risk

California under Newsom’s leadership has enacted progressive priorities that could appeal to Democratic primary voters: expanded healthcare coverage regardless of immigration status, expanded paid sick leave, universal free school meals, a $20 minimum wage for fast food workers, protections for women from other states seeking abortions, aggressive climate change and gun control laws, and a death penalty moratorium.

“In a Democratic primary, in particular — we’ve got the receipts, things that the party is arguing for, we’ve delivered across a spectrum of issues,” Newsom told AP.

But critics point to a darker picture. Author Joel Kotkin, writing in Newgeography, argues that California has become “a disaster for most workers,” citing the state’s highest poverty rate among U.S. states, loss of 1.3 million manufacturing jobs since 1990, and 4 million net domestic migrants who have left over two decades. Newsom’s home state also stands in stark contrast with likely primary competitors from battleground states — Pete Buttigieg of Michigan and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro — who could claim they are better positioned to win moderate and independent voters.

Chase Meyer, a political science professor at the University of South Carolina, told Spectrum News that the calculus is clear: “You don’t go to South Carolina or any of the early states like New Hampshire by accident. This is a political calculation to set themselves up for 2028.”

What’s Next

Newsom’s team argues he is uniquely equipped to reframe the California story on the national stage. He is a regular on Fox News, debated Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and was the most prominent national surrogate for former President Joe Biden’s campaign. He has also shown a willingness to break from progressive orthodoxy — hosting Trump allies on his podcast and calling efforts to dismantle police departments “lunacy.”

As the 58-year-old lame-duck governor weighs his decision, the political calendar moves quickly. Midterm elections arrive in November, and South Carolina’s pivotal first-in-the-nation primary is little more than a year away. Newsom told voters in West Columbia: “Sixty days (until the midterms), Democrats. We have 60 days to bring it home.”

Whether California proves to be Newsom’s greatest asset or his most significant liability may ultimately depend on whether he can convince voters like Sylvester Kimbrough, a 73-year-old from Hardeeville who said after hearing Newsom speak: “I’m definitely gonna consider him. I’m gonna listen to some others, but he’s at the top of the list.”

For now, the California governor appears willing to bet that his message of fighting Trump will resonate more than concerns about his home state. As Michele Ashby, who wore a “Newsom for President 2028” pin to his event, put it: “I’ve liked him since the very beginning. Seeing him in the news, I kept thinking, ‘I want him to be president.’”