NH Primary Tests Sununu, Pappas in Key Senate Race
New Hampshire voters headed to the polls Tuesday to select party nominees for Congress, governor, and the state Legislature in a series of competitive primaries triggered by Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s decision not to seek re-election. The contests carry national significance, as the open Senate seat could help determine which party controls the U.S. Senate for the second half of President Donald Trump’s term, according to AP News.
A Political Dynasty Faces a Familiar Rival
The Republican Senate primary features two former U.S. senators seeking a return to Washington: John E. Sununu and Scott Brown, both of whom Shaheen previously defeated. Sununu, part of one of New Hampshire’s most prominent political dynasties, has emerged as the clear frontrunner, holding a commanding lead in recent polls.
Sununu, who served in the Senate from 2003 to 2009 before being ousted by Shaheen, has focused his campaign on affordability for housing, healthcare, and energy, while stressing his independence from Washington politics. “I’ve been out of politics for 17 years. I’m not worried about reelection,” he said during a campaign stop last month. “I don’t need an appointment or a job. I don’t need to make anyone happy. I need to do one thing: Stand up for the people of New Hampshire.”
Despite Sununu having called Trump “a loser” in 2024 and backed Nikki Haley in the Republican presidential primary, Trump endorsed him in February. Sununu has tried to show daylight between himself and the administration, criticizing Trump’s tariff policy and urging Congress to rein in executive power, as USA Today reported.
Brown, who represented Massachusetts in the Senate from 2010 to 2013 and later served as Trump’s ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa, has cast himself as the more independent option. “I’m the only truly independent candidate here who can actually vote on anything with a clear conscience and with New Hampshire’s best interests at heart,” Brown said.
Democrats Face a Progressive Surge
On the Democratic side, four-term U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas enters primary day as the favorite, but his lead over scientist and democratic socialist Karishma Manzur has narrowed significantly over the summer. A University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll from late August showed Pappas leading by 13 points, down from 43 points in January.
Pappas, who has served in the House since 2019 and is endorsed by Shaheen and former Vice President Kamala Harris, has stressed his experience and ability to win tough general elections. “This is the kind of place where you can’t just run a bunch of TV ads and expect to win,” Pappas told The Guardian. “You’ve got to meet people where they are. We’re finding support in corners you might not expect – including from people who voted for Trump last time but are open to a conversation about moving the country forward.”
Manzur, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America who supports Medicare for All, has tapped into the same anti-establishment energy that has propelled progressive challengers to surprise primary wins across the country this cycle. She has sharply criticized Pappas over his support for Israel, saying he is “enabling genocide,” and has called both Pappas and Sununu “corporate politicians.”
“There is no such thing as electability,” Manzur said. “Actually, I’m very electable. Every voter gets one vote. That’s it, and that person should vote based on which candidate aligns with their values.”
UNH political science professor Dante Scala said Manzur’s momentum makes her a bigger threat to Pappas than Brown is to Sununu. “Does Pappas have the upper hand? Sure, right,” Scala said. “But I think there’s a good chance that people will look at the margin on primary night and say, ‘Oh,’ and be a little surprised. I think Karishma is more capable of a surprise on primary night than Scott Brown is, just because there is that energy.”
Open House Seats Draw Crowded Fields
Pappas’s departure from his 1st Congressional District seat has attracted a crowd of candidates on both sides. The Democratic field includes Stefany Shaheen, daughter of the retiring senator, and Maura Sullivan, a former Marine and Obama administration official who lost to Pappas in the 2018 primary. The Republican field includes Trump-endorsed Anthony DiLorenzo, a car dealership owner, and Hollie Noveletsky, a veteran and nurse practitioner.
In the 2nd Congressional District, first-term Democratic incumbent Rep. Maggie Goodlander faces a primary challenge from progressive state Rep. Paige Beauchemin, who calls for halting data center construction and abolishing ICE. Republican Lily Tang Williams, who lost to Goodlander in 2024, is making her third attempt at the seat.
Governor’s Race and Down-Ballot Contests
Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte faces two little-known opponents in her primary as she seeks a second two-year term, while Cinde Warmington is unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Voters will also nominate candidates for the entire state Legislature, where Republicans hold a roughly 40-vote majority in the 400-member House and outnumber Democrats in the Senate 16-8.
Election Monitoring and Turnout
The U.S. Department of Justice is sending four election monitors to polling places in Manchester and Nashua, part of what the agency calls its efforts to “ensure transparency, ballot security and compliance with federal law,” according to NHPR. The deployment comes amid tension between the state and federal government over voter roll access and as Trump continues to make unfounded claims about election tampering.
Secretary of State David Scanlan expects a “strong, normal turnout,” projecting 145,751 Republican and 103,024 Democratic primary ballots based on 888,475 total registered voters.
What’s at Stake in November
The U.S. Senate is narrowly controlled by Republicans 53-47, making this open seat critical to Democrats’ hopes of reclaiming the chamber. Republicans haven’t won a Senate race in New Hampshire since 2010, but Trump lost the Granite State by just 3 points in 2024, giving the GOP reason for optimism.
Recent polling shows Sununu and Pappas essentially tied in a hypothetical general election matchup, with Sununu leading 45% to 43% in the UNH poll. Americans for Prosperity Action, a super PAC tied to the Koch network, has already spent at least $3.3 million in support of Sununu and against Pappas.
New Hampshire is among the last states to hold state-level primary elections, leaving winners just eight weeks to campaign before the Nov. 3 general election. Legislation passed this year will move future state primaries to the second Tuesday in June.
As Al Jazeera noted, the results will test how much Republicans should align with Trump and whether Democratic incumbents can fend off progressive challengers — two of the defining questions of the 2026 midterm cycle.