Trump Campaigns as If on Ballot for Midterm Elections
President Donald Trump is opening a first-of-its-kind Republican midterm convention in Dallas this week, asking voters to treat the November elections as a referendum on his presidency even though he is not on the ballot. The unprecedented two-day gathering at the American Airlines Center, which begins Wednesday, is designed to energize the GOP base ahead of what party leaders acknowledge is a challenging political environment with control of both chambers of Congress at stake.
Trump will speak on both nights of the convention, delivering a keynote address Wednesday and closing remarks after Vice President JD Vance speaks Thursday, according to AP News. The president conceived and planned nearly every detail of the event himself, Republicans familiar with the process said.
A Strategy Built Around Trump
Trump’s central message to voters has been explicit: “Pretend, please, that I’m on the ballot.” He made the appeal during an August rally in South Carolina, acknowledging the well-known problem that his supporters have historically failed to turn out when his name is not on the ballot.
“The problem that we have is, they say that Trump does great when he’s on the ballot, but when he’s not on the ballot, his people don’t come and they don’t vote for senators, congressmen and other Republicans,” Trump said, as NBC News reported. “So what I really want you to do is pretend, please, that I’m on the ballot. Just come and vote. It’s so important.”
The Republican Party has fully embraced the strategy. The RNC is selling $16 beer cozies depicting the 80-year-old president as the Marlboro Man on horseback, and RNC Chairman Joe Gruters has dubbed the event a “Trumpapalooza.” More than 100 Republican House members and candidates are expected to attend, with each required to pay $25,000 for tickets and lodging.
A Difficult Political Landscape
Republicans arrive in Dallas facing significant headwinds. Trump’s approval rating on the economy stood at just 32% in an AP-NORC poll from July, down from 40% in March 2025. The U.S. remains engaged in a war with Iran with no end in sight, and Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on about $20 billion worth of U.S. goods took effect at midnight Monday, as NPR reported.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has been blunt about the party’s position. “I’m a realist. I don’t ever try and sugarcoat things,” Thune said. “I think it’s a competitive environment right now.” Democrats need to net four seats to win the Senate majority, and the battle is expected to exceed $3.4 billion in spending.
Republican strategist Rick Tyler, a Trump critic, warned that the president’s approach may do more to mobilize the opposition than his own base. “Trump can turn out two bases, his base and the Democratic base,” Tyler told AP News. “The problem for him is, when he’s not on the ballot, his base never shows up and they’re unlikely to again.”
Texas at the Center
The convention puts Texas at the center of the political world as the state hits the homestretch of its most competitive election cycle in years. Democrat James Talarico is challenging Republican Ken Paxton in a Senate race that most analysts see as a tossup, threatening to end the GOP’s three-decade streak of statewide dominance, according to the Texas Tribune.
Trump’s political organization, MAGA Inc., has announced it is spending $10 million on television and digital ads in the Texas Senate race - its first major general election investment. Elon Musk’s America PAC has separately spent more than $1.6 million to help Paxton, as the Dallas Morning News reported.
“All of our allies out there, including the president and his team and their resources, need to be brought to bear on Texas,” Thune said. “Because it’s not one that we can lose if we’re going to hang on to a Republican majority.”
Talarico, who leads Paxton in some polls, is planning counterprogramming, including a “Love Thy Neighbor” grocery drive. “Billionaire mega-donors and their puppet politicians will gather at a convention in Dallas to clink champagne glasses and toast their own corruption,” he said in a statement. “We’ll be doing something different.”
Cracks in the Facade
Despite the show of force, not all Republicans are on board. At least 45 GOP candidates and lawmakers have said they will not attend, with dozens more undecided, and First Lady Melania Trump will also skip the convention, as Atlanta Black Star reported.
Rep. Tom Barrett, a Michigan Republican in a battleground district, said he would be more useful campaigning at home. “I can’t control what the president’s going to say at the convention, but I can control where I’m at, what I’m doing,” Barrett said.
Some lawmakers have also balked at the $25,000 cost to attend. “It’s $25,000, apparently - I just got a bill,” said Rep. Tim Burchett of Tennessee.
The major broadcast networks haven’t committed to televising most of the convention, which will compete with the kickoff of the NFL season, including games likely airing during both of Trump’s speeches.
What to Watch
The convention represents an unprecedented experiment in midterm politics. Unlike traditional nominating conventions, there is no platform to pass or delegate votes to count - just a two-day rally designed to fire up the base and showcase the party’s stars.
House Speaker Mike Johnson framed the event as an opportunity to put the party’s best foot forward. “We’ll parade our stars across the stage,” he said.
Democrats remain skeptical the gathering will shift the political dynamics. “I’m not sure what they’re doing,” said Rep. Suzan DelBene, head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “They don’t have a message, they have nothing to say.”
With early voting less than six weeks away and control of both chambers on the line, the Dallas convention will test whether Trump’s unique brand of political gravity can overcome an increasingly difficult electoral environment - or whether the party’s fate is tied too closely to a president who won’t be on the ballot.
Trump, for his part, remains confident. “I am on the ballot,” he said at the South Carolina rally. “We’re all on the ballot. Our country’s on the ballot.”