Services Trade Outpaces Goods as CIFTIS 2026 Opens

The world’s trade in services is growing more than twice as fast as its trade in physical goods, according to forecasts cited at the opening of China’s flagship services exhibition. The World Trade Organization projects global services trade volume will expand 4.8% in 2026, well ahead of the 1.9% growth expected for goods trade — a widening gap that reframes where the global economy’s next growth engine may lie.

The 2026 China International Fair for Trade in Services (CIFTIS) opened on September 9 at Shougang Park in Beijing and runs through September 13, drawing more than 40 countries and international organizations and over 250 enterprises. Chinese state broadcaster Xinhua framed the event’s central observation with a deceptively simple question: why does “invisible” trade run faster than the trade you can see?

What Counts as ‘Invisible’ Trade

Services trade covers economic exchanges that cross borders without a physical shipment. As the Xinhua report put it, a remote medical consultation, an engineering design project, or a cross-border trip can each constitute trade in services. Unlike a container of machinery, these transactions are intangible, and increasingly digital — which is precisely why they move differently.

The distinction matters for policy. Goods trade has been buffeted by tariff fragmentation and geopolitical headwinds, while services trade — delivered over networks and often embedded in expertise — faces different, and in some cases lower, barriers.

China’s Services Sector Accelerates

China’s own numbers illustrate the trend. The country’s total services imports and exports reached roughly RMB 3.8 trillion (about US$530 billion) in the first half of 2026, up 8.3% year-on-year, with services exports climbing 17.6%. Intellectual property royalty exports — fees for research, design, and know-how traded across borders — surged 44.3%.

According to the state-run Xinhua analysis, personal, cultural, and entertainment services showed standout growth, and China’s total services trade has now surpassed the US$1 trillion mark. Analysts at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, a research arm of the Ministry of Commerce, describe the shift as a leap “from a big services trade country to a strong services trade country.”

A Summit with a Diplomatic Backdrop

The fair’s centerpiece, the Global Services Trade Summit, was held on September 9 in Beijing. Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang, a member of the Politburo Standing Committee, delivered the keynote, telling the gathering that “trade in services is an important component of international trade, and its role in promoting world economic growth and industrial upgrading is growing,” according to the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Ding offered three proposals: advancing services trade through higher-quality services industries; expanding its “new space” by reducing barriers to cross-border flows of factors; and creating a “new engine” via digital and intelligent empowerment, including AI technology sharing and digital infrastructure connectivity. As he put it, “vigorously developing services trade and promoting services opening and cooperation is not only China’s choice, but also the world’s need.”

The summit was co-hosted by the Beijing municipal government, China’s Ministry of Commerce, UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), and the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) — with WIPO joining as a co-host for the first time. Roughly 800 Chinese and foreign officials and representatives attended, and the State Council reported remarks or video addresses from figures including Burundi’s President Evariste Ndayishimiye, Zimbabwe’s Vice President Constantino Chiwenga, and Bulgaria’s Deputy Prime Minister, alongside UNCTAD’s acting secretary-general and WTO and WIPO leadership.

The Fair Itself

This year’s CIFTIS, held under the theme “Global Services, Shared Benefits,” expands its permanent home at Shougang Park, a converted industrial site now functioning as a dedicated convention town. People’s Daily reported that Norway serves as the guest country of honor, with a national pavilion focused on green energy, digital technology, healthy home living, and high-end nutrition, while Guangxi is the guest province of honor.

The most notable structural innovation is a dedicated “Going Global Services Promotion Roadshow Zone,” where finance, legal, accounting, intellectual property, advertising, and human resources firms offer outbound services to Chinese companies expanding overseas. The fair also features a “China Services Case Exhibition” of more than 140 cases across 12 services trade sectors — roughly 40% involving core technologies such as AI, large models, and intelligent agents.

Why It Matters

The trend lines sit against a more turbulent backdrop. The WTO’s March 2026 outlook projected combined goods and services trade growth of about 2.7% for the year, down from roughly 4.7% in 2025, and noted that tariff fragmentation is reshaping global commerce even as services trade reached US$9.56 trillion in 2025. In that environment, services look like a relative bright spot.

But the growth is also a deliberate policy bet. China is positioning services — from engineering to entertainment to intellectual property — as a strategic complement to its manufacturing base, a narrative officials frame as a shift “from ‘Made in China’ to ‘Served by China.’” The emphasis on outbound services reflects a concrete demand: as more Chinese firms invest abroad, they need legal, financial, and compliance expertise to navigate foreign markets.

Beijing has also moved on institutional opening. City authorities extended a negative list for cross-border data transfer from a pilot free-trade zone to the entire municipality, covering nine sectors including medical devices and trade logistics, and a digital bill-of-lading system developed with Singapore authorities cuts processing time from days by courier to about eight minutes.

What to Watch

Several threads will determine whether the services boom endures. The first is whether AI genuinely accelerates cross-border services or simply reshapes them domestically. The second is whether institutional openings — on data flows, standards, and licensing — keep pace with the technology. The third is geopolitical: services trade depends on trust and connectivity, both of which are strained in an era of fragmentation.

For now, the numbers point one direction. When intangible trade grows twice as fast as the trade in goods, the question is no longer whether services matter, but how quickly the rules meant to govern them can catch up.