Trump Officials Propose Sweeping Census Overhaul

The Trump administration unveiled a proposed rule on Wednesday that would reshape the U.S. decennial census in ways not seen in modern history, moving to exclude millions of immigrants without permanent legal status from the population count used to allocate congressional seats and Electoral College votes, while dropping race and ethnicity questions from the survey for the first time since 1790.

The proposal, published in the Federal Register on Thursday under the title Decennial Census of the Population of Americans; Proposed Residence Criteria and Proposed Regulations for Demographic Questions, was released for public inspection online a day earlier. It was signed by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and is open for public comment until October 13, 2026.

What the Proposal Would Do

The rule contains two parts. The first, a new 15 CFR Part 60, would formalize how the Census Bureau determines a person’s usual residence and, critically, restrict who is counted for apportionment. It would exclude undocumented immigrants and those whose legal status is less durable and indefinite in length than lawful permanent resident status, while continuing to count green card holders.

According to NPR, the plan calls for an unprecedented exclusion of non-U.S. citizens without a green card from the 2030 census results that the 14th Amendment says must include the whole number of persons in each state.

The second part, 15 CFR Part 70, would prohibit questions about race, ethnicity, or sexual orientation on the decennial short-form questionnaire or any questionnaire used for enumeration. Questions about biological sex, date of birth, and household relationships would remain.

The Federal Register document argues that illegal aliens (among others) should not be included in the apportionment count, as they are not true inhabitants, members of the body politic, or persons with a usual residence in the United States due to their lack of a sufficient tie and allegiance to the United States.

On race and ethnicity, the proposal states that substantial doubts about the meaning, significance, and impact of attempting to categorize persons by race and ethnicity, in particular, have featured prominently in our national discourse and have been reflected in shifts in the law.

A Citizenship Question Still Undecided

The Census Bureau says it is considering adding a citizenship or legal-status question to the short-form questionnaire and is inviting public comment. It also suggests it could use its enormously broad access to administrative records, from agencies including the Treasury, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, and the U.S. Postal Service, to determine individuals’ legal status.

Whether a citizenship question ultimately appears on the 2030 form remains unresolved. As The Guardian reported, the rule contemplates such a question as a means of excluding noncitizens from the count.

The Political Stakes

The census is not merely a statistical exercise. Its results determine each state’s share of U.S. House seats and Electoral College votes, guide the drawing of voting districts at every level of government, and steer the distribution of federal funding for public services. Race and ethnicity data are also central to enforcing the Voting Rights Act and other anti-discrimination laws.

Estimates of the plan’s partisan impact differ sharply. As Roll Call noted, a 2020 Pew Research Center study found that excluding undocumented immigrants from apportionment would have shifted three House seats, with California, Florida, and Texas potentially losing seats to the benefit of Alabama, Minnesota, and Ohio. A 2025 study in PNAS Nexus, however, found a roughly neutral effect on House control and the Electoral College since 1980. Neither estimate accounted for the additional exclusion of legal, temporary immigrants, which this proposal would also impose. Pew has estimated that about 16 million immigrants in the U.S. lack permanent legal status.

Legal and Political Opposition

The plan is expected to draw immediate legal challenges. New York Attorney General Letitia James said her office is exploring its options. She said her office stopped the Trump administration’s census attacks in 2020 and is exploring legal options to fight back again.

Democrats on the House oversight committee accused the president of trying to rig the survey. They said the 14th Amendment is clear that the census is meant to count all people living in the United States and that they would fight the proposal.

Immigrant rights groups have already been litigating related questions. Earlier this year, groups represented by ACLU Foundation chapters moved to intervene in a Missouri lawsuit, Missouri v. U.S. Dep’t of Com., that seeks to exclude noncitizens from apportionment. In that filing, the groups argued that the unlawful request would distort representation for millions of Americans and shake the foundations of representative democracy.

The proposal also faces structural hurdles. The administration is required to send Congress a report by April 1, 2027, on proposed question topics for the 2030 census, and it is Congress, not the president, that holds final constitutional authority over the count.

A Reprise of an Earlier Fight

This is not the first attempt. During Trump’s first term, the administration tried and failed to add a citizenship question to the 2020 census, with the Supreme Court blocking the effort in Department of Commerce v. New York in 2019. Trump also tried to subtract undocumented immigrants from 2020 apportionment counts, an effort abandoned by the Biden administration in 2021. Republican lawmakers have continued to advance similar legislation, including a Senate bill sponsored by Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.) to exclude undocumented immigrants from the 2030 apportionment.

What to Watch

The proposal contains severability clauses, meaning that if one provision is struck down, the rest could stand. Because the next presidential administration takes office in 2029, the plan could also be reversed before the 2030 count is conducted, a risk the proposal itself acknowledges.

Census advocates warn that even if the changes are never carried out, the mere proposal could depress participation in 2030, particularly among Latino residents whom the Census Bureau has historically undercounted. Public comments on the rule are due by October 13, 2026, and the fight is almost certain to continue in the courts and in Congress well before then.