Anti-Muslim Rhetoric Surges in GOP Midterm Messaging

Anti-Muslim and anti-Arab rhetoric has escalated sharply in Republican campaign messaging ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections, a surge that researchers describe as the most concentrated wave of Islamophobic language in U.S. electoral politics since the 9/11 attacks. The escalation coincides with historic electoral gains by Muslim American candidates, notably Abdul El-Sayed’s Democratic Senate primary win in Michigan on September 3.

Within hours of securing the nomination, El-Sayed was called a “terrorist” and a “RADICAL ISLAMIST” by Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), according to NPR. The Alabama Republican’s post fit squarely within a wider pattern of messaging that has intensified over the past two years.

A Rhetoric That ‘Should Shock the Conscience’

“We’re far beyond the 2016 presidential campaign where the use of explicit racism in political rhetoric was shocking,” said Nazita Lajevardi, a professor of political science at the University of Michigan. “We are now in a world where this type of rhetoric is so commonplace that it really should shock the conscience – but it doesn’t.”

The Center for the Study of Organized Hate (CSOH), a nonpartisan think tank, found that between February 2025 and March 2026, 46 GOP elected officials published over 1,100 posts targeting Muslim Americans with bigotry and conspiracy theories. In a separate analysis, the group documented a coordinated campaign among 89 elected officials over 13 months, including 1,111 social media posts and eight bills tied to a “Sharia Free America Caucus” that has grown to 65 members.

The rhetoric has moved beyond tropes of Muslims as a security threat toward framing them as a civilizational threat. “One of the most important shifts we’ve seen is that this is no longer confined to ‘radical Islam’ or terrorism,” said Raqib Naik, CSOH’s executive director. “We’re seeing members of Congress label all Muslims as a threat.”

He pointed to an August post from Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), who wrote that “every single Muslim holding public office in America is a trojan horse, and a threat to both national security and our republic.” In March, Rep. Randy Fine (R-FL) posted that “We need more Islamophobia, not less,” while Rep. Andy Ogles (R-TN) said Muslims don’t belong in American society.

A Surge Tied to Muslim Political Wins

The Center for the Study of Organized Hate reported that Islamophobic posts naming El-Sayed rose by nearly 1,900% in the week after his primary win, from an average of 155 to more than 3,000 a day. Naik said the victories of Muslim politicians like El-Sayed and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani appear to validate the conspiracy theories peddled by some GOP lawmakers.

“It allows political opponents to present Muslim candidates as evidence of infiltration or a tool of Islamification,” he said.

The backdrop is stark. Muslims make up a little over one percent of the U.S. population, yet they are winning office at unprecedented rates. According to CAIR, a record 255 Muslim elected officials now serve across 26 states, including four members of Congress (with a fifth likely), 11 mayors, and 46 state legislators. Ghazala Hashmi became Virginia’s first Muslim woman elected to statewide office as lieutenant governor.

At the same time, public opinion has shifted markedly. According to the Pew Research Center, 51% of U.S. adults now say Islam is more likely than other religions to encourage violence, up sharply from 25% six months after the 2001 attacks. The partisan gap has widened dramatically: 76% of Republicans versus 29% of Democrats now hold that view.

The Institute for Social Policy and Understanding found its Islamophobia Index rose from 25 in 2022 to 33 among the general public in 2025, with the sharpest increases among white and Hispanic Americans. ISPU also found that 63% of Muslims reported experiencing religious discrimination in the past year—the highest share of any faith group it measures.

Texas as a Bellwether

As KERA News reported, high-profile Texas Republicans carried anti-Muslim messaging to the national stage during the final night of the Republican midterm convention in Dallas on September 10. Sen. Ted Cruz declared that “Sharia law has no place in America,” claiming Islam “produces murder and oppression.” Gov. Greg Abbott promised to “fully ban Sharia law” in Texas, despite it being unenforceable in the United States.

Sharia refers to a broad set of Islamic religious and ethical principles guiding daily life—including prayer and personal conduct. It cannot usurp the U.S. Constitution or American legal system, despite GOP claims to the contrary.

Naik described Texas as a nexus whose actions have signaled to other Republican politicians that the issue motivates the base. In 2025, Abbott shared a post from a prominent anti-Muslim activist about a Muslim community development outside Dallas—the East Plano Islamic Center—implying it was a “Sharia city.” He subsequently designated CAIR a foreign terrorist and transnational criminal organization, threatened to withhold airport funding over Muslim foot-washing stations, and pressured the cancellation of a Muslim water park event. This summer, the Republican Party of Texas adopted a platform plank calling on state lawmakers to ask the federal government to deport or denaturalize advocates of “Sharia law,” according to the Texas Tribune.

A Distraction or a Winning Strategy?

Analysts are divided on whether the messaging will help or backfire electorally. Maya Berry, executive director of the Arab American Institute, said the rhetoric is “rooted in a political agenda” and a “desire for a viral moment online.” She described a progression from coded language to open hostility: “There has been this progression from using key terms that make it sound like—‘I’m not a bigot. I’m just trying to be rational about what we’re facing,’ to now—‘let’s call it what it is: Muslims don’t belong in this country.’”

Vinny Minchillo, a Republican consultant who worked on Trump’s 2024 campaign, acknowledged the strategy’s divisive potential. “I always think in advertising, there’s only two things for sale, and that’s hope and fear,” he said. “And in this case, it’s fear.” He added that with voters’ top concerns being the economy and inflation, “if we can have a problem to talk about that’s not economy and inflation, we’re excited to put that in the message set.”

Lajevardi warned the approach could backfire in Michigan, where GOP Senate nominee Mike Rogers is courting independents. “People who may be disaffected voters and may not share identities of the targets of these attacks—they still might be repulsed or feel quite negative about this type of rhetoric,” she said.

The Guardian reported that researchers tie the spike partly to political calculation. Mobashra Tazamal, associate director of Georgetown University’s Bridge Initiative, said that with low polling and an unpopular war with Iran, the GOP is “stirring up hate and bigotry towards a certain group.”

Berry contrasted the current climate with the aftermath of 9/11, when President George W. Bush visited an Islamic center and warned against scapegoating. “You had the president of the United States say, don’t do this to fellow Americans,” she said. “I genuinely believe that saved lives. Contrast that with what you have today.”

What to Watch

The coming weeks will test whether the rhetoric mobilizes the GOP base or alienates the swing voters both parties need. With the 25th anniversary of 9/11 just passed and early voting approaching, the tone of campaign messaging—and whether Republican leadership chooses to condemn or amplify it—will shape the final stretch before November. As Tazamal put it, “I don’t think the GOP is going to do away with it.”