China Says Real Estate Has Entered Its ‘Stock Era’
China’s Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD) formally declared on 18 September 2026 that the country’s real estate market has entered a “stock era” (存量时代), capping a decisive shift in supply-demand dynamics away from the rapid new-build expansion that powered the economy for two decades. Speaking at a State Council Information Office press conference, MOHURD spokesperson and Vice Minister Chen Shaowang said all three pillars of housing and construction work — urban-rural construction, housing and real estate, and the construction industry — are at a critical juncture of transition.
A Structural Turning Point
Chen framed the shift as “two shifts, two transitions, three-ization transformation” (两个转向、两个转变、三化转型). According to Xinhua News, the “two shifts” describe urban-rural construction: urbanization is moving from a phase of rapid growth to stable development, and urban development is moving from large-scale incremental expansion toward stock-based quality and efficiency improvement.
The “two transitions” apply to housing and real estate — the market’s supply-demand relationship has fundamentally changed, and the sector has entered the stock era. The “three-ization transformation” describes the construction industry’s push toward intelligence, greening, and integration.
The most concrete marker came from Zhang Xuetao, director of MOHURD’s Real Estate Market Regulation Department. Xinhua reported that the second-hand housing share of total transactions rose from 27% in 2020 to 46% in 2025, and reached 52% in the first eight months of 2026 — crossing the 50% threshold that marks entry into the stock era.
Second-Hand Homes Overtake New Builds
The declaration formalizes a trend that has been building for years. On 15 September, the National Bureau of Statistics published national second-hand online-signed area data for the first time, showing a 10.6% year-on-year increase for January to August 2026. NBS spokesperson Fu Linghui said the market’s trading structure is undergoing profound adjustment, moving from a market dominated by new-home transactions toward one dominated by existing homes.
“Although new commercial housing transactions have decreased, as second-hand transactions increase, the total volume of real estate market transactions is stabilizing,” Fu said, as quoted by Time Weekly.
MOHURD data shows second-hand online-signed area reached 550 million square meters in the first eight months of 2026, consistently above new-home sales area. In 20 key cities, August’s second-hand transaction volume was 1.59 times new-home volume, with 14 of the 20 cities posting year-on-year increases — Suzhou, Xiamen, Dongguan, and Chengdu each up more than 20%. In Beijing, second-hand residential online-signings hit 13,853 units in August, up 3.9% year-on-year and the sixth consecutive month of positive growth, above the industry’s 13,000-unit boom-or-bust line.
Price signals are following. In August, first-tier city second-hand residential prices rose 0.1% month-on-month — Shanghai up 0.3%, Shenzhen up 0.1%, Guangzhou flat, and Beijing down 0.1%. Across 70 major cities, 48 saw their year-on-year price declines narrow.
Policy Groundwork: The 8·28 Package
The stock-era declaration builds on a policy package issued on 28 August 2026, when three departments jointly released a notice on improving the commercial housing sales system, systematically pushing completed-home sales. As 21st Century Business Herald reported, the reforms cover sales, credit, and capital-market financing.
Under the new rules, presale projects must complete main-structure capping for single buildings, with all buyer funds deposited into supervised accounts. New projects are prioritized for completed-home sales, achieving “what you see is what you get” and fundamentally preventing delivery risks. Real estate financing is shifting from an emphasis on a developer’s overall scale and brand toward the merits of individual projects.
The People’s Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration extended the maximum term of individual housing loans from 30 to 40 years and delayed loan disbursement until completed-home registration or pre-sale project completion registration. A three-pillar basic system was introduced: a project company system requiring one project to correspond to one company with independent legal-person rights; a main-bank mechanism with closed fund management; and presale/completed-sale regulation.
Zhang Bo, president of the 58 Anjuke Institute, said the key change is a shift in developer financing logic, letting quality projects gain more funding access.
Housing Quality and Security
Alongside the sales overhaul, MOHURD is raising physical standards. Chen announced that floor heights will rise from 2.8 meters to 3 meters, buildings of four storeys or above must add elevators, and balcony and overhang guardrails will be uniformly raised to no less than 1.2 meters.
On housing security, Zhang said MOHURD will match supply to demand for new citizens, young people, and low-income urban wage groups, following the principle of “should rent, then rent; should buy, then buy.” Housing provident fund withdrawal categories will increase from six to nine, adding renovation and property-fee payments, with nationwide mutual recognition of contribution records.
The ministry also set five goals for the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), including building modern people’s cities, improving housing conditions, upgrading the construction industry, and increasing China’s global influence in the habitat domain.
Urban Renewal and What to Watch
MOHURD’s plan is not limited to housing. Quantified urban-renewal targets include renovating about 115,000 old urban residential communities and around 4,000 urban villages, upgrading roughly 1,500 old blocks and factory zones, and building or refurbishing about 770,000 kilometers of urban underground pipelines, according to a Tencent News preview of the briefing. Chen said China’s cities have entered a “three parts building, seven parts governing” period, with urban governance growing in importance.
The shift carries broad economic implications. According to a commentary in Economic Daily by Kang Shu, housing transactions will move from being dominated by new-home sales toward a parallel structure of new and second-hand homes, and the sector’s focus will extend from development toward operations, services, and maintenance. Pricing power, the commentary noted, will shift from developers toward diffuse buyers and owners.
Analysts caution that the transition is not without friction. Completed-home sales lengthen developers’ capital-recovery cycles and could accelerate industry consolidation, pressuring smaller developers. But as Wu Jing, director of the Tsinghua University Center for Real Estate, told SCIO/Xinhua, China’s housing development has shifted from addressing whether homes are available to focusing on how good they are — making adjustments to the sales system necessary.
For now, the ministry’s message is clear: the era of breakneck new construction is over, and the market’s future lies in quality, renewal, and existing stock. What to watch next is whether the completed-home sales push can be scaled without starving mid-sized developers of capital, and whether the stabilizing transaction volumes translate into a durable price floor.