RMB Breaks Past 6.70 Against Dollar, Strongest Since 2023
The Chinese renminbi strengthened past the 6.70 mark against the US dollar in both the onshore and offshore markets on September 18, 2026, reaching its highest levels in years as broad dollar weakness and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts lifted sentiment toward Chinese assets.
The offshore rate (CNH), which more closely reflects international investor expectations, led the move, hitting an intraday high of 6.6953 — its strongest since mid-July 2022. The onshore spot rate (CNY) opened at 6.7005 before also breaking 6.70, the first time it has done so since January 16, 2023, according to The Paper, the Shanghai-based outlet that first reported the move.
The Numbers Behind the Move
According to The Paper, the onshore spot rate climbed more than 100 pips from the previous session’s close of 6.7085 to reach an intraday high of 6.6975. The People’s Bank of China raised the daily central parity rate — the midpoint around which the currency is allowed to trade — by 59 basis points to 6.7521, the highest since February 3, 2023.
The external backdrop has been decisive. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, fell to 100.248 on September 17, extending a softer trend that has eased pressure across non-dollar currencies. Year to date, the onshore spot renminbi has appreciated more than 4.1% against the dollar, while the offshore rate has gained 4%.
A Rally Building Through 2026
The September milestone is the culmination of an appreciation trend that has unfolded steadily across the year. In May, the renminbi had already pushed to stage highs, with the central parity rate set at 6.8487 on May 7 — then described as the strongest level since March 2023 — while the offshore rate briefly broke through the 6.80 mark, as Beijing Business Today reported.
The appreciation slowed only briefly in March, when the Federal Reserve held rates steady and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East boosted safe-haven demand for the dollar. At that time, the offshore rate slipped back below 6.9 and the market shifted into a more two-way, volatile pattern, the National Business Daily noted.
By August, the trend had resumed. On August 3, the central parity was set at 6.7898, with both the onshore and offshore rates trading around 6.75, reflecting a renewed strengthening bias, according to 21st Century Business Herald.
What Is Driving the Renminbi Higher
Analysts point to a combination of external and domestic forces. The primary external driver is the compression of the US-China interest rate differential. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.50%–3.75% in November 2025, and persistent expectations of further easing have reduced the yield advantage of holding dollar-denominated assets, channeling capital toward renminbi holdings.
“The most core reason supporting this round of appreciation is the strong fundamental support from the misalignment of China-US economic and monetary policy cycles, combined with the external catalyst of a weakening dollar index,” said Liu Tao, a senior researcher quoted by Beijing Business Today.
Domestic factors have reinforced the move. Improved investor sentiment toward Chinese assets, strong export performance, and a high trade surplus that keeps corporate foreign-exchange settlement demand elevated have all underpinned the currency — what analysts describe as a “ballast” for the exchange rate.
Chinese monetary authorities have signaled comfort with the appreciation while cautioning against one-sided bets. The PBOC has emphasized maintaining the renminbi at “a basic stability at a reasonable and balanced level,” while allowing market forces a greater role in daily pricing.
What to Watch
The immediate question is whether the renminbi can hold above 6.70. Analysts quoted by Beijing Business Today had earlier projected a 2026 trading range of roughly 6.75–7.0, with a “stable but slightly strong, two-way fluctuation” pattern. The September break puts the currency beyond the stronger end of that forecast, suggesting the appreciation may be running ahead of expectations.
Much depends on the Federal Reserve’s next moves. Further rate cuts would likely extend dollar weakness and reinforce renminbi strength; a pause or a hawkish pivot could trigger a sharp correction. Geopolitical risks — as the March episode showed — can quickly reverse the trend by reviving safe-haven demand for the dollar.
For now, the dual break above 6.70 marks the clearest signal yet that the renminbi’s multi-year appreciation cycle remains intact, even as Chinese policymakers continue to guard against the kind of one-way expectations they have repeatedly warned against.