Vlaams Belang Extends Poll Lead Over N-VA in Flanders

Vlaams Belang has posted its strongest polling result since Belgium’s June 2024 federal elections, extending its lead over the governing N-VA in Flanders, according to a major cross-community opinion survey published on 18 September. The far-right party, led by Tom Van Grieken, would take 27.8% of the Flemish vote if elections were held today, up from the 21.8% it secured at the ballot box two years ago, while N-VA of Prime Minister Bart De Wever would fall to 23.0%. The poll, conducted by Ipsos for HLN, VTM NIEUWS, RTL and Le Soir, paints a picture of a federal coalition under sustained pressure across both language communities.

A Cross-Community Snapshot

The “De Grote Peiling” / “Grand Baromètre” was conducted online between 8 and 15 September 2026 among 2,600 Belgians aged 18 and older — 1,000 Flemings, 1,000 Walloons and 600 Brussels residents. The maximum margin of error at a 95% confidence level is ±3.1 percentage points in Flanders, ±3.1 in Wallonia and ±4.0 in Brussels. It is the ninth such survey since the 2024 elections.

In Flanders, this is the second consecutive poll in which Vlaams Belang has edged ahead of N-VA. According to RTL Info, the party has climbed steadily from 26.6% in June, while N-VA has regained some ground from a prior low of 22.3% but remains well below its 25.6% election result.

Behind the two nationalist parties, L’Avenir reports that CD&V has moved into third place in Flanders with 13.3%, narrowly ahead of Vooruit at 12.9% — a gap smaller than the margin of error. The far-left PVDA sits at 10.0%, while Groen (6.2%) and the renamed liberal party Anders (6.1%) are flirting with the electoral threshold once again.

The French-Speaking Picture

South of the language border, the picture is equally turbulent for the federal coalition’s francophone partner. The Parti Socialiste (PS) under Paul Magnette posts a historic 29% in Wallonia — seven points above its 2024 election result — and has now led the poll for seven consecutive surveys. The liberal MR of Georges-Louis Bouchez has stabilized at 20.3%, but remains nearly eight points below its 2024 score of 28.2%.

The most striking shift is the rise of the radical left. The PTB climbs to 18.9% in Wallonia, overtaking Les Engagés (17.6%) to take third place. Ecolo, at 8.9%, is the smallest party but is slowly recovering. In Brussels, the PTB retains a narrow lead at 23.2% as a family, with the socialist PS/Vooruit family close behind at 22.2%, followed by MR/Anders at 15.7%.

A Paradox of Popularity

Despite its party losing ground in the polls, De Wever remains the most popular politician in Flanders, with nearly a quarter of Flemings (24%) saying they feel best represented by the Prime Minister. Van Grieken ranks second at 17%, followed by Conner Rousseau of Vooruit at 6%. In Wallonia and Brussels, the PTB’s Raoul Hedebouw is the most popular politician, while MR’s Sophie Wilmès consistently ranks among the top three.

The divergence between party support and personal approval is a recurring feature of Belgian polling — and one Van Grieken is keen to exploit. In an interview with HLN’s Timmie van Diepen published on 19 September, he framed the survey as a verdict on the Prime Minister personally. “A lot of voters are disappointed,” he said. “In this government, but also in the prime minister. Bart De Wever is the real problem of this country. He is standing in the way of change.”

Analysis: A Coalition Under Strain

The results underscore the challenge facing De Wever’s “Arizona coalition,” which took office in 2024 with N-VA, MR, Les Engagés, Vooruit and CD&V — and notably without Vlaams Belang, which remains excluded by the cordon sanitaire. The two largest parties of that governing coalition — N-VA in Flanders and MR in Wallonia — are both polling well below their 2024 election results, while the parties gaining ground sit largely outside the federal government.

Van Grieken attributed the shift to voter frustration over budget management, arguing that the government is searching for roughly €10 billion in savings while failing to cut spending. “You can tackle a deficit in two ways: either you seek extra revenue or you cut spending,” he said, claiming De Wever is “increasingly starting to resemble his predecessor” by pursuing tax increases rather than cuts. He also called for a constitutional spending cap limiting government expenditure to 50% of GDP, down from the current 54%.

Yet the Vlaams Belang leader declined to reveal how he would break the cordon sanitaire that has kept his party in opposition since 2024, saying only that his “one task now” is to tie the government’s policy to De Wever’s personal image. He compared the European mood to the rise of the AfD in Germany, arguing that “voters are tired of the establishment parties.”

What to Watch Next

The poll is a snapshot, not a result — and Belgian polling has, in the past, overstated Vlaams Belang’s ability to convert support into governing power. The party led pre-election polls before June 2024 as well, only to remain locked out of power afterward. With the next federal elections still some years away and the government under fiscal pressure, the key question is whether the coalition’s largest parties can reverse their erosion — or whether these numbers foreshadow a longer-term realignment in both Flanders and Wallonia.