Trump-Backed PACs Launch $150M Midterm Ad Blitz
A network of super PACs aligned with President Donald Trump has reserved more than $150 million in television, streaming, and digital advertising for the final stretch of the 2026 midterms - a late-cycle spending surge that Republican strategists say has finally given the party the firepower to compete, but that also reveals where the party is most vulnerable.
The blitz, concentrated in the two weeks before Sept. 18, was booked by Trump’s flagship super PAC MAGA Inc. and two newly created cutout groups, No Going Back PAC and Safety and Affordability PAC, according to NPR. The scale of the investment underscores the intensity of the fight for control of Congress just weeks before Election Day on Nov. 3.
The cavalry arrives
For months, Republican candidates watched as Democratic opponents outraised them and as the party’s political environment darkened. That changed in September.
“Look across the battleground Senate states, look at the House districts, the cavalry has come,” longtime Republican strategist Scott Jennings told NPR. “Now, the Republicans have enough money to make an actual argument, to draw a real contrast, to have a real debate.”
The money is being deployed quickly. According to a CNBC calculation based on AdImpact data, three Trump-linked super PACs reserved more than $136.5 million across House and Senate races over the same two-week window. The newly formed No Going Back PAC alone reserved more than $98.5 million, concentrated in competitive Senate contests, while Safety and Affordability PAC booked about $27 million in House races, per reporting by The New Republic.
MAGA Inc. entered the cycle with a massive war chest - more than $403 million in cash on hand as of the end of July, according to FEC filings cited by CNBC. Trump has said the super PACs could spend $400 million to $500 million on the midterms.
“I think I have like close to $1 billion in the super PAC,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office, according to NPR. “And I’m allocating probably $400 or $500 million.”
A defensive posture
What makes the spending notable is not just its size but its geography. While some money is flowing to traditional swing states, a substantial share is being directed at deep-red territory that Trump carried comfortably in 2024 - a sign, analysts say, that the political map has widened in Democrats’ favor.
In the Senate, Republicans are spending heavily in Alaska, Texas, North Carolina, and Ohio. In the House, Trump-aligned PACs are targeting districts including Texas’ 15th, which Trump won by nearly 18 points in 2024; Kentucky’s 6th, which he won by 15; and Alabama’s 2nd, which he carried by 14, according to NPR.
Of the 27 House districts the MAGA Inc. network is targeting, 20 are GOP-held and 26 were carried by Trump, The New Republic reported. Seventeen were carried by Trump by more than five points, and six by double digits.
“It’s an acknowledgment that things have shifted in a huge way since 2024,” David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report told The New Republic. “Republicans have hemorrhaged support among independent voters, they’ve got a real enthusiasm problem, and as a result, districts that ordinarily would vote handily for Trump and Republicans are now in play.”
Larry Sabato, founder of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, put it more bluntly: “If those are in danger, then a lot of other seats that are considered similarly safe for Republicans must be on the chopping block.”
The targeting also reflects a startling erosion of Trump’s support among Latino voters. CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten noted that Trump’s net approval among working-class Latinos is roughly 42 points underwater - a swing of about 43 points from 2024, as reported by Mediaite.
Texas: a case study
Nowhere is the defensive scramble clearer than in Texas, a state Republicans have not lost statewide in more than 30 years.
Pro-Paxton ad reservations for September total more than $94 million - swamping the roughly $20 million backing Democrat James Talarico and exceeding what Democrats have spent the entire cycle on ads in Texas, according to NPR. That is a striking reversal for a state the GOP once assumed would be easy to hold.
Republican nominee Ken Paxton, the scandal-plagued state attorney general, has struggled to raise money against Talarico, a state representative with a formidable grassroots fundraising operation. As of the most recent campaign finance deadline, Talarico held $21.5 million in cash on hand versus Paxton’s $1.8 million - a 12-to-1 advantage, according to FEC records cited by CNBC.
Super PACs have stepped in to fill the gap. The Senate Leadership Fund, aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, committed $54 million through the Texas PAC to help Paxton, according to TIME. Elon Musk’s America PAC added roughly $1.6 million, and MAGA Inc. committed about $10 million.
The race has become a proxy for Trump’s broader political standing. Mark Jones, a political scientist at Rice University’s Baker Institute, described the contest to TIME as a “perfect storm” for Democrats: “You have a very unpopular Donald Trump in the White House. You also have an economy that is viewed negatively by a majority of Texans. The most flawed major statewide candidate that the Republican Party has had in modern memory.”
At the Republican convention in Dallas this month, Trump’s endorsement of Paxton came wrapped in jabs. “He may not dress right. He may not talk perfectly. He may not be the best-looking guy I’ve ever seen,” Trump said. “But you know what he is? He’s the greatest attorney general in America.”
Late money, diminishing returns
The sheer size of the ad blitz may not translate into decisive advantage, for two reasons. First, super PACs pay market rates for airtime - often double or triple the lowest-unit-charge rates that candidates enjoy - and much of the best inventory was locked in months ago. The Senate Leadership Fund announced $342 million in April reservations across eight Senate races but bypassed Texas entirely, expecting no competitive race there.
“They can still effectively use that money, but the ship has sailed on using it as effectively as possible,” Democratic media strategist Joshua Wolf told CNBC. “It is not too late for it to have an impact. But they’ve sort of missed their window to optimize the value of that money.”
Second, money cannot change the fundamentals. Polling in mid-September showed Democrats ahead on the generic House ballot by nearly 9 points, per a New York Times/Siena survey; a Fox News poll found a 7-point lead; and a YouGov poll found 12. Democrats also led on cost of living, health care, and immigration.
“Money can’t change the weather, but it can be an umbrella for them going into this election,” Democratic operative Jesse Ferguson told NPR. “It can help insulate them, but it can’t change the fundamentals of what voters are feeling.”
Some experts argue the late timing may nonetheless be sound. John Sides, a Vanderbilt University political scientist, told CNBC that “the weight of the evidence is that spending earlier than September is most likely ineffective,” citing research showing summer ads had little effect while September and October ads did.
What’s next
Republicans still hold a substantial overall financial advantage. An NPR analysis of AdImpact data found Republican candidates and groups pledged to spend more than $557 million to Democrats’ $343 million across the nine most competitive Senate races. That edge could help the GOP blunt a Democratic wave.
But the next disclosure could prove telling. MAGA Inc.’s latest FEC filing, covering activity through Aug. 31, was due the weekend after the NPR report and will offer a roadmap of where the operation is steering its money in the final sprint.
With Election Day approaching and the Senate on a knife’s edge - the Cook Political Report rates seven Senate races as toss-ups, five of them Republican-held - both parties are betting that the closing weeks will decide control of Congress. Whether $150 million in late advertising can reverse the GOP’s trajectory is the central question of the campaign’s final chapter.