AfD and Linke Surge as Merz’s CDU Collapses in German Votes
Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democrats suffered one of the most bruising nights in their postwar history on Sunday, as voters in two German states delivered sweeping gains to the political extremes and ejected the CDU from a regional parliament for the first time ever. The far-right Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD) won the eastern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, while the left-wing Die Linke surged to victory in Berlin, according to preliminary results.
The double blow sharply increases pressure on Merz, who nonetheless insisted on election night that he would remain in office and press ahead with his reform agenda. The results, VRT NWS reported, signal a profound realignment of German politics less than two years into his chancellorship.
A Historic Defeat in the East
In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the AfD more than doubled its 2021 result to finish first with 38.2 percent of the vote, while the Social Democrats (SPD) of popular state premier Manuela Schwesig held on to a surprisingly strong 35.5 percent. The CDU, by contrast, collapsed to 4.9 percent — below the 5 percent threshold required for parliamentary representation — and lost all of its seats in the state legislature.
It is the first time the CDU has been ejected from a German state parliament in its history, and lead candidate Daniel Peters recorded the worst showing of any CDU state election since 1949, the year of the Federal Republic’s founding. The far-left BSW and the pro-business FDP also failed to clear the threshold.
“We were ground up in this highly polarised campaign,” Peters said.
Die Linke’s Breakthrough in Berlin
If the east delivered a triumph for the right, the capital delivered a striking one for the left. According to official Berlin results, Die Linke, led by 45-year-old Elif Eralp, more than doubled its vote to 25.7 percent — its best-ever result in the city — and will now seek to lead the regional government. Eralp campaigned almost single-mindedly on the city’s housing crisis, wearing a gold necklace emblazoned with the word “Mietendeckel” (rent cap) and promising to push for the socialisation of large private housing companies.
“So that people in our city can lead a better life again,” Eralp said of her goal, reiterating her ambition to become governing mayor.
The scale of the shift is stark. Berlin’s two radical parties — Die Linke and the AfD — together took roughly 42 percent of the vote. The governing CDU-SPD coalition was voted out of office: the CDU fell to 18.8 percent, down from 28.2 percent, while the SPD slumped to a historic low of 12.1 percent.
“A catastrophic evening for the Berlin SPD,” said lead candidate Steffen Krach. “For years, for decades we were the Berlin party, and today one definitely cannot say that anymore.”
Merz Digs In
Chancellor Merz called his party’s result in Berlin an “ordentliches Ergebnis” — an “acceptable” one — while acknowledging that no tailwind had come from federal politics. He labelled the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern outcome a “Desaster,” but insisted he would stay on. “I want to move our country forward,” he said. “The reforms must come.”
Sensing the danger to his position, Merz spoke to the press unusually early — at 18:14, minutes after the first exit polls — in an apparent bid to end speculation that he might surrender the party chairmanship while remaining chancellor. His strategy for the crisis, ARD analysts observed, is to play for time: no further state elections are scheduled until April 2027, by which point he hopes the economic recovery will produce better headlines. “2026 will see us reach 1.3 percent growth,” he said at a campaign rally. “Germany is out of the economic crisis.”
Yet the polling data suggest deeper discontent. Some 91 percent of voters in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern said they were dissatisfied with the federal government, and 58 percent said they had held high hopes for Merz but were now very disappointed. Even within his own party, 52 percent of CDU voters expressed that disappointment.
The AfD Ascendant
The AfD, meanwhile, is presenting itself as a governing force in waiting. It has now won three state elections in its history, following its landslide in Sachsen-Anhalt on 7 September, where it took 43.8 percent. Federal co-leader Alice Weidel declared: “We are the new people’s party of Germany,” and predicted the federal government would “do the splits.”
Analysts caution that the party remains unable to govern. Every other party rules out cooperation with the AfD under the so-called “Brandmauer” (firewall) — a position reinforced by the domestic intelligence agency’s 2025 classification of the AfD as “gesichert rechtsextremistisch” (confirmed right-wing extremist), which has since been temporarily suspended pending the party’s legal challenge.
As Tagesschau’s analysis noted, the AfD’s path to power now runs through splitting the CDU and absorbing its voters — a project it hopes to advance in Sachsen-Anhalt, where it is testing whether it can form a minority government. Coalition talks now loom in both states, with pre-election arrangements thrown into doubt.
What’s Next
In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Schwesig can no longer govern with Die Linke alone; a red-red-green coalition is the only arithmetically viable option for her. Her strong showing has also raised her national profile, with speculation that she could emerge as a future SPD chair or even chancellor candidate.
In Berlin, two coalitions are realistic: a Die Linke-led red-red-green alliance, complicated by SPD reservations about expropriating housing companies, or a CDU-led “Kenia” coalition of CDU, Greens and SPD.
Merz’s party leadership meets on Monday, with a parliamentary faction meeting on Tuesday. The official line is that the leadership stands behind the chancellor. But as one analyst put it, the chant of “carry on” is far from the whole story — and the coming weeks will test how long Merz’s gamble on time can hold.