Poll: Most Voters Say Trump Has Hurt the Economy as Midterms Loom

A majority of American voters believe President Donald Trump’s policies have hurt the economy, and his approval rating has fallen to a second-term low, according to a new NBC News poll released September 20 — a finding that casts a shadow over Republican prospects in November’s midterm elections.

The survey, conducted September 11–15 among 1,000 registered voters, puts Trump’s approval at 41%, with 56% disapproving. Fifty-five percent of voters say his policies have hurt the economy, up from 48% in March, while only 26% say they have helped.

The Economy Emerges as the Deciding Issue

The poll reflects a political environment shaped by rising costs. According to Cryptobriefing, gasoline prices have surged more than 50% from a pre-war average of about $2.98 per gallon after the Iran war, which began February 28, 2026, disrupted transit through the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint handling roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply. Cost of living ranked as voters’ most pressing issue in both March and September.

The shift is stark when compared with the last midterm cycle. At this point in 2018, more voters said Trump’s policies helped the economy (41%) than hurt it (26%). Now, Democrats hold a narrow one-point lead — 38% to 39%, within the margin of error — on which party voters trust to handle the economy, a dramatic reversal from the 21-point Republican advantage recorded three years ago.

Democrats also lead by seven points on inflation and hold double-digit advantages on healthcare and data centers.

Democrats Lead Congress, but Their Brand Still Struggles

On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats lead 50%–45%, a five-point edge in the battle for control of Congress. That is far narrower than the 12-point Democratic advantage at the same stage before the 2018 election, when the party rode an anti-Trump wave to win the House.

“We have a classic battle between these numbers and the political geography in which this campaign will be decided,” said Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, whose firm conducted the survey alongside Democratic firm Hart Research Associates. “And the Republicans are still standing because of the geography in which this election will be won or lost.”

That geography favors the GOP: Democrats must contest traditionally Republican Senate seats in states including Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas, and would need to flip multiple states Trump carried by double digits in 2024 to win the chamber, USA TODAY reported.

The poll also underscores the Democratic Party’s own unpopularity. Republicans are viewed more favorably than Democrats — 36% positive to 49% negative for the GOP, versus 29% positive to 50% negative for Democrats. The Democratic Party is regarded more negatively than both Trump and the GOP.

Trump as a Motivating Force

The survey shows Trump is driving voter behavior more than any single policy. Forty-three percent of registered voters say their vote for Congress is intended to signal opposition to Trump, while 27% say it signals support. Among independents, nearly half — 46% — frame their vote as opposition to the president, compared with just 10% who see it as support.

“Donald Trump has achieved his goal of making this election about him at a historic level,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates. “The problem for Trump and Republicans on the ballot in November is that he has also made history in the highest share of voters who say their vote is in opposition to Trump.”

Several of Trump’s signature economic initiatives are landing poorly. Forty-two percent of voters say they are less likely to support a candidate backing the 2025 tax and spending law known as the “big, beautiful bill,” compared with 36% who say they are more likely. Trump’s proposal to issue $5,000 payments to every adult if Republicans keep control of Congress fares worse: 46% say they would be less likely to back a candidate who supports it, against 21% who would be more likely.

The Iran war remains broadly unpopular, with 62% of voters saying it has not been worth it and 57% saying they are less likely to support a candidate who backs the conflict.

A Party in Search of a Message

The poll exposes tensions within the Democratic coalition. Half of voters say they would be less likely to support a candidate who backs many of the Democratic Socialists of America’s proposed policies, while 31% say they would be more likely. Calls to abolish ICE are similarly unpopular.

Yet “Medicare for All” draws majority support: 53% say they would be more likely to back a candidate who favors it, versus 36% who would be less likely.

“This speaks more to deep dissatisfaction with Trump and Republicans than a ringing endorsement of Democrats,” Horwitt said. “The party in power does not have a positive story to tell on the major issues of the day: inflation, corruption and the Iran war. Voters are continuing to look for change.”

What to Watch

With the midterms approaching, the poll suggests Republicans face headwinds rooted in economic discontent, even as Democratic weakness and favorable Senate geography keep the fight for Congress competitive. McInturff offered a blunt assessment of the environment: “The issue environment is tilting substantially towards the Democrats.”

Whether that tilt proves sufficient to overcome the map — and whether Democrats can convert dissatisfaction with Trump into support for their own candidates — will determine control of Congress in November.