Belgium Keeps Threat Level 3 on Iran, Online Extremism

Belgium will remain at threat level 3 - the second-highest on a four-point scale - through 2026, the country’s threat-analysis body confirmed on Thursday, pointing to the war involving Israel, the United States and Iran, two small antisemitic attacks in March, and the rise of a new form of online extremist violence targeting young people.

Gert Vercauteren, director of the Coordinating Body for Threat Analysis (OCAM), told RTBF that the sustained level reflects an international picture that has grown more turbulent. “We were heading toward a certain normalisation in threat reports,” he said. “But the geopolitical context intervened, notably the war in Iran.”

What Level 3 Means

Belgium’s threat scale runs from 1 to 4. Level 3, described as “grave” (serious), means an attack is considered “possible and likely.” Level 4, the maximum, signals a serious and imminent threat - a status Belgium last adopted nationally on 22 March 2016, the day of the Brussels and Zaventem airport bombings.

The current level has been maintained for several years. According to the RTBF interview, 2025 saw the main threat remain jihadist Islamist extremism at 39% of threat notifications, though this share has declined. Vercauteren stressed that the profile of the threat has shifted away from returning foreign fighters - many of whom, he said, have been disillusioned - toward newly radicalised individuals, often young people or minors, radicalised online.

The March Attacks and the Iranian Link

Vercauteren confirmed a line of inquiry that had circulated in Belgian media since the spring: the perpetrators of two antisemitic incidents in March 2026 acted in response to an Iranian call to strike Jewish and Israeli targets worldwide.

The first was an explosion in front of the synagogue on rue Leon Fredericq in Liege on 9 March, which caused only material damage. Days later, on 23 March, a car was set on fire in Antwerp’s Jewish quarter near Central Station; two minors were arrested within 15 minutes. The attack was claimed by a pro-Iranian group, “Harakat Ashab Al Yamin Al Islamiya.”

“Those behind these attacks certainly followed Iran’s call to strike Jewish and Israeli interests everywhere in the world,” Vercauteren told La Libre Belgique. He added that a suspect linked to a series of attacks in Europe was later arrested in Turkey, after which no further Iran-inspired attacks have been observed.

In response to the March incidents, Belgian ministers Quintin and Francken announced the deployment of soldiers to protect synagogues and Jewish schools.

A New and Elusive Threat

Beyond Islamist extremism, OCAM has raised the alarm over what it calls “nihilistic extremism” - an ultra-violent, mostly online movement originating in the United States. In a formal statement in August, the agency described it as a phenomenon that “does not rest on a utopian vision of the future” but on a “dystopian vision of the world, based on chaos, destabilisation and violence.”

“They want to sow chaos, violence. They are fascinated by ultra-violence,” Vercauteren told RTBF. “They look for vulnerable victims … and it is very worrying because it affects a lot of young people, and often minors too.”

According to OCAM’s official assessment, the movement blends imagery and ideas from neo-Nazi, Satanist and other scenes. Recruits are approached through social media, gaming platforms and online support groups, then funnelled into more confidential channels where they are manipulated and pressured toward self-harm or violence against others. The line between victim and perpetrator often blurs.

As of June 2026, six individuals were listed as nihilistic extremists in the BDC T.E.R., Belgium’s shared database on terrorism, extremism and radicalisation - a small figure the agency nonetheless flags as potentially under-detected. “To date, nihilistic extremism remains a limited phenomenon compared with other forms of extremism. It nevertheless calls for particular attention, because we take into account a possible under-detection,” Vercauteren said.

The database currently lists 528 individuals under full status: 446 linked to Islamist extremism, 47 right-wing extremists, 11 left-wing extremists, 10 anti-establishment figures and six nihilistic extremists.

A Broader Retreat From Old Patterns

The shift is visible in the year-on-year figures. In 2025, VRT reported, 555 extremists were under priority tracking - a decline of 19 from the previous year. Of those, 86% were linked to Islamist extremism, about 8% to right-wing extremism and roughly 3% to left-wing extremism. Some 79 individuals were removed from the database in 2025, while 60 were added.

Vercauteren attributed the long-term decline to the fading of the era of mass departures to jihadist conflict zones, while warning that online radicalisation among the young “remains worrying.”

OCAM, which marks its 20th anniversary this year, was founded in 2006 in the shadow of the 9/11, Madrid and London attacks, succeeding the GIA anti-terrorist group. One of its central achievements has been to make intelligence-sharing mandatory across 11 support services, producing monthly integrated threat analyses. The agency maintains the shared BDC T.E.R. database used across Belgian security services.

What’s Next

Vercauteren was careful to frame the challenge as one that extends well beyond policing. “It’s a societal problem that security services alone cannot solve,” he said. “So we must combine security, prevention and reintegration.”

For nihilistic extremism in particular, OCAM is urging a prevention-first response, including awareness-raising for schools, youth services and mental-health professionals, and closer coordination with online platforms. The agency has published a brochure to help educators and care workers recognise warning signs early.

The watch points ahead will be familiar ones: whether the Iran-related threat picture cools, and whether the online radicalisation of minors - a phenomenon OCAM admits may be undercounted and knows no borders - becomes a more visible feature of Belgium’s security landscape.