Hurricane Nolo Strengthens as Hawaii Braces for Catastrophic Flooding
Hurricane Nolo is intensifying as it churns north toward Hawaii, prompting forecasters to warn of “catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding” and mudslides across the Big Island, where rainfall totals could reach 35 inches. The storm, now a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph, was centered roughly 240 miles south of South Point on Friday, according to FOX Weather.
It is forecast to strengthen into a major hurricane — Category 3 or higher — by the weekend as it makes an exceptionally close pass south of the Big Island before a sharp turn westward.
A State on Edge
Nolo is the fourth tropical system to threaten Hawaii during an extraordinarily active 2026 Pacific season, and it arrives while the state is still recovering from earlier storms. Hawaii Gov. Josh Green has extended the state’s emergency proclamation through Nov. 21, giving National Guard leadership more flexibility to activate additional personnel, and has urged residents to prepare now, warning the storm could intensify quickly, according to Hawaii News Now. State and county offices and public schools closed Thursday to give residents time to prepare.
The storm’s slow, northward approach — moving at about 5 mph — has given officials time to stage shelters and sandbag stations, but it has also prolonged the anxiety of communities still reeling from August’s Hurricane Lala, which isolated Pahala, destroyed a section of Highway 11 and left some residents dependent on helicopter airlifts.
“There are some, you know, PTSD if you will. We got hit pretty hard, especially on the south side in Ka’u, and so there is some anxiety,” Hawaii County Mayor Kimo Alameda said from the Emergency Operations Center, according to Hawaii News Now. “However, our job as government is to provide as much information as timely as possible to let people know that we are prepared.”
The Flood Threat
Rainfall is the most certain and most dangerous of Nolo’s impacts. The FOX Forecast Center projects widespread totals of 8 to 12 inches, with 18 to 24 inches possible along the Big Island’s eastern side and localized amounts exceeding 35 inches. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center forecasts peak totals of up to 25 inches on parts of the Big Island, up to 10 inches on Maui and up to 6 inches elsewhere, according to Weather.com.
Because the ground remains saturated from Lala, Tropical Storm Moke and Hurricane Lowell, officials warn that even a fraction of the forecast rainfall could trigger severe flash flooding and mudslides, particularly across the Big Island’s steep terrain.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Big Island and a Tropical Storm Watch for Maui, while flood watches cover the Big Island, Maui, Molokai, Lanai and Kahoolawe through Saturday. Storm surge of up to 3 feet is possible on the Big Island, with south-facing shorelines facing the greatest risk.
Winds and Warnings
Wind gusts could exceed 50 mph as the system makes its closest approach. Tropical-storm-force winds of 39 mph or higher are most likely across the southern portion of the Big Island, and gusts have already topped 30 mph in parts of the Big Island and wind-prone areas of Maui County, Oahu and Kauai.
Officials have urged residents in flood-prone or isolated areas to use shelters early and take advantage of evacuation shuttles before low-lying roads become impassable. The American Red Cross opened an emergency shelter at Na’alehu Elementary School, and Hawaii County is running free shuttle buses to a shelter at the Robert N. Herkes Gymnasium in Pahala.
“Kawa Flats is an area where flooding usually occurs,” Alameda said. “That’s why we’re encouraging them to not wait to evacuate. Especially if you’re in a flood-prone area, you want to evacuate prior to the flood or to the big rains. Even six inches of rain could be damaging and could be a hazard.”
Across the island, residents lined up at sandbag distribution stations.
“We’re getting ready, filling sandbags,” one resident told Hawaii News Now. “We got a shop over here. The water is gonna guarantee come in, and this helps out a lot. It keeps the water from coming in and ruining everything.”
Another resident, an Army veteran, said the wind worried him most. “Us Hawaiians, we just look after each other,” he said. “The main thing is we look after each other during the storm and just prepare as much as we can.”
A Storm With a Second Life
Nolo has followed an unusual path. It first formed as Tropical Depression Fifteen-E on Sept. 13 well southeast of Hawaii, then fizzled after moving into strong wind shear before regenerating — a so-called “zombie storm” that earned a second life in more favorable conditions.
It strengthened into a hurricane late Thursday, and forecasters expect it to keep intensifying through the weekend as it passes south of the islands.
Historic Comparison
If Nolo reaches major hurricane status near Hawaii, it would be a rare event. Only one other major hurricane has tracked within 150 miles of the Big Island, according to NOAA’s hurricane database: Hurricane Dot in August 1959, which brushed south of the Big Island before striking Kauai. Nolo could be the strongest Big Island impact from a hurricane in 67 years.
The storm is unfolding against the backdrop of a powerful “Super El Nino,” which has warmed Pacific waters and reduced wind shear, fueling a near-constant parade of tropical systems. According to Wikipedia’s tracking of the 2026 Pacific hurricane season, the season’s Accumulated Cyclone Energy index stood at approximately 220.2 units as of Sept. 25 — a very high figure, well above the 1991–2020 average of roughly 100.
What to Watch
Nolo is expected to make its closest approach to the Big Island on Saturday before turning sharply west. Much depends on the exact track: a more northerly path would increase the damaging wind threat, while the forecast keeps the storm’s core — and its worst winds — south of the island.
Even outside the forecast cone, officials caution that significant rain, wind and surf impacts will extend well beyond the storm’s center. Forecasters say the heavy rain could fall both before and after the closest approach, meaning the flood risk will linger into the weekend. For a state already stretched by four storms in a single season, the coming days will test both its infrastructure and its resilience.