Democrats Hold Biggest Lead Yet in Congress Race, NBC Poll Finds

Democrats have opened the largest lead of the 2026 midterm cycle in the generic congressional ballot, while President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to a low point for his second term, according to NBC News’ newly released polling averages.

The network’s average shows Democrats ahead of Republicans 52% to 43% on the question of which party should control Congress — a 9-percentage-point advantage adjusted to a likely-voter scale. Trump’s standing sits at 39% approve and 59% disapprove, down sharply from the 50% approval he began his term with roughly a year and a half ago.

With about a month remaining before voters cast ballots, the numbers represent both the strongest position Democrats have held and a significant low for the president, framing a midterm election the parties are approaching from markedly different starting lines.

A Steady Slide for Republicans

The widening gap reflects a gradual deterioration of the political environment for the GOP rather than a single turning point. The two parties were effectively tied in the weeks after Trump returned to office in January 2025. Since then, the shift toward a Democratic-controlled Congress has been driven largely by the changing preferences of political independents.

According to NBC News, independents preferred Democrats by roughly 6 points at the start of Trump’s second term. Their allegiance moved toward Democrats through the first half of 2025, then accelerated sharply in late 2025 and early 2026 — reaching a lead of about 20 points for Democrats in the spring. That surge coincided with rising public frustration over the president’s handling of the economy, the war involving Iran, and the killings of two Americans by federal immigration officers.

The Republican Party has not recovered that ground. Democrats now hold a 16-point lead among independents in the race for Congress, per the average. While survey responses do not automatically translate into votes, NBC News described such a strong showing among independents as one of several encouraging signs for Democrats.

What Is Driving Trump’s Low Marks

Movement among independents — and, to a lesser degree, among Republicans — explains the president’s tumbling approval rating. Trump’s support within his own party hovered in the mid-to-high 80s during his first six months back in office. It now sits at 79%, a slight but noticeable decline.

His standing with independents has fallen further, to 26% in the NBC News average. Voters have specifically soured on his handling of two signature issues: the economy and border security and immigration. In an NBC News Decision Desk poll conducted in April 2025, 40% of American adults approved of Trump’s handling of inflation and the cost of living, while 60% disapproved. By April 2026, approval had fallen to 32% and disapproval had climbed to 68%.

How the Averages Work

A significant portion of NBC News’ report functions as an explainer for how its polling averages are constructed — a methodology that matters because the topline numbers are an aggregate, not a single survey. An average, the network noted, gives a broad sense of where surveys are trending and controls for outliers.

The NBC News averages are weighted calculations of all publicly available polls that meet certain standards for methodology and transparency, tracking back to the beginning of the second Trump administration. To be eligible, a poll must at minimum report when it was conducted and how many respondents were interviewed. If a pollster does not release information on field dates, sample size, or margin of error, it is excluded.

The methodology rests on five principles. “Recency” gives newer polls more weight than older ones. “Precision” weights polls with a lower margin of error more heavily. “Stability” limits the influence of individual outliers until other evidence supports them. “Variety” downweights frequent pollsters’ older surveys so no single firm can dominate. And “Consistency” places polls of different populations on the same registered-voter scale before they are combined.

Importantly, the network stressed that averages are not forecasts. “Averages are not predictions. Instead, they aim to provide the clearest possible aggregate measure of the current available polling,” the outlet wrote. Because the congressional ballot is a vote-preference question, the average shifts to a likely-voter baseline after Labor Day.

Republicans’ Structural Hopes

Despite the headwinds, NBC News cautioned that the Democratic advantage is “no guarantee of electoral success.” Republicans are working to energize the coalition that sent Trump to the White House two years ago and to narrow the gap before Election Day.

The GOP’s principal hope is structural: many of the key battleground House and Senate races are being fought in districts and states Trump won in 2024, some by double-digit margins. That geographic advantage could blunt the effect of a national Democratic lead. Republican outside money is also outspending Democrats in most competitive Senate races, even as direct campaign funds favor Democrats.

There are early signs of GOP candidates distancing themselves from the president. Florida Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, whose district Trump won by more than 14 points, released an ad saying “some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far,” according to NBC News’ reporting on Republican candidates working to separate themselves from the president amid rising fuel prices and an unpopular war.

What to Watch

With roughly a month until Election Day, the central questions are whether the Democratic lead holds and whether Republicans can close the enthusiasm and independent-voter gap in time. The Senate map, where several Republican-held seats sit in states Trump carried comfortably, remains a partial counterweight to the House picture.

For now, the polling averages paint a consistent picture: an electorate that has drifted away from the president and his party, with independents — the voters who decide close elections — leading the movement. Whether that translates into seats in November is the question no average can answer.