China Forecasts Bumper Grain Harvest for 2026

China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said on September 29 that a full-year bumper grain harvest is in prospect, after summer grain output exceeded 300 billion jin (about 150 million metric tons) for the first time in the country’s history. The announcement, made at a State Council Information Office press conference, also reported that early rice output has stayed above 56 billion jin for six consecutive years while autumn grain is now being harvested on a large scale across major producing regions.

The ministry’s statement, carried by Xinhua and The Paper, framed the results as a milestone for national food security as China begins its 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030).

A Record Summer Harvest

The headline figure was the summer grain crop, which reached 301.49 billion jin (3014.9亿斤)—up roughly 2 billion jin year on year—breaking the 300 billion jin threshold for the first time. Early rice held steady above 56 billion jin, extending a six-year streak of stability.

According to China Daily, citing CCTV News, a ministry official described grain production as “stable and increasing,” with autumn grain harvesting now underway nationwide. Autumn grain typically accounts for around three-quarters of China’s annual output, making the current harvest decisive for the full-year result.

The Harder Story Behind the Numbers

The optimistic outlook came despite a difficult growing season. As Science and Technology Daily detailed, the 2026 crop cycle had to overcome five distinct obstacles: late sowing, natural disasters, low per-unit yields, seed dependency, and barriers to digital adoption.

Persistent heavy rains in autumn 2025 delayed wheat planting across the Huang-Huai-Hai plain, a key producing region spanning Shandong and Jiangsu. In Shandong, some fields were sown nearly a month late, leaving thin, weak seedlings. Emergency measures—including the “four supplements, one promotion” technique and thousands of on-the-ground agronomists—reversed the picture. One Shandong farmer, Li Baogang, recorded a measured yield of 1,137.8 jin per mu, about 60 percent above his own expectations, adding more than 500,000 yuan in income across his 1,000-mu plot.

Jiangsu faced a similar challenge, with roughly 11.22 million mu of wheat classified as weak seedlings—nearly 30 percent of the total. Targeted guidance and late-sowing-tolerant varieties helped the province post gains in area, per-unit yield, and total output.

Disaster risk was another hurdle. During the critical grain-filling period, the ministry launched a “100-day battle” campaign to strengthen field management and defend against floods, drought, and pests. In Henan, authorities deployed six expert teams and treated more than 32.55 million mu-times of pest and disease areas, using multispectral drones and smart-farm models to generate targeted interventions rather than blanket applications.

Raising Yields, Seeds, and Digital Reach

China also expanded its large-scale yield-boosting initiative, growing the number of “whole-county” advancement counties from 702 to 1,000 and launching 20 advancement cities—a shift from showcase plots toward county-wide productivity gains.

On seeds, the ministry reported in July that domestically bred varieties now cover over 95 percent of crop planting area, with domestic market shares exceeding 80 percent for livestock, 86 percent for aquaculture, and 91 percent for vegetables. China posted a crop seed trade surplus in both 2024 and 2025.

Digital agriculture is also moving from demonstration to practical use. According to Science and Technology Daily, Jiangsu’s “Shennong Huizhong” model cut seed use by 20 jin per mu and labor costs by 30 yuan per mu, while lifting per-mu returns by 40 to 80 yuan. In Heilongjiang’s Jiamusi agricultural zone, an AI app that fuses satellite, weather, and historical data allows farmers to run a “crop check-up” from a single phone—with more than 80 percent of users being smallholders.

What to Watch

The ministry’s forecast reinforces food security as a central plank of the 15th Five-Year Plan. At the same conference, officials also noted that targeted assistance measures had been implemented for 2.562 million people at risk of falling back into poverty, tying the harvest outlook to the broader rural development agenda.

The full-year result will depend on the autumn harvest now in progress, and on whether favorable weather holds through the final weeks of the season.